Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... As an upper trough digs southward from British Columbia to the northern Rockies today, a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will extend along/near the international border from MT to MN. At the surface, a front should also extend generally west-east across this region, displaced slightly south of the mid-level jet. The western portion of this front (across MT/ND) is forecast to move southward tonight as a surface low gradually develops/consolidates near the MT/ND/SD border. Forcing for ascent will remain weak for much of the day as mid-level heights remain neutral. Still, high-based convection may develop across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by this afternoon/evening. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest westerly mid-level flow present, some of these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for severe winds/hail as they move eastward through the evening. The potential for surface-based convection to develop in proximity to the front remains unclear. A conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist near the front, but weak forcing and increasing MLCIN/warmer temperatures aloft with southward extent cast considerable uncertainty regarding overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening. A better chance exists for elevated thunderstorms to occur tonight as the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. This activity could pose an isolated threat for mainly severe hail given ample MUCAPE and strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer. ...Eastern States... As a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to initially develop across the higher terrain of these regions. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. With daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, moderate instability should develop across the lower terrain east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians. Modestly steepened low-level lapse rates should also aid in some enhancement to convective downdrafts, with isolated strong to damaging winds possible as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Farther south across parts of FL and southeast GA, convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. This activity will be associated with a weak low/mid-level trough currently off the FL Atlantic Coast. While low-level and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain modest, some enhancement to mid/upper-level north-northeasterlies could promote multiple clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds given moderate to locally strong instability. ...Mid-South... A remnant MCV will drift east-northeastward today over the Mid-South and vicinity while gradually weakening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level flow attendant to this feature could support an isolated damaging wind threat with convection that develops this afternoon. But, with deep-layer shear expected to remain weak, the overall severe threat will likely remain quite isolated/marginal. ...Arizona... A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great Basin today. On the periphery of this anticyclone, around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow may aid thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM in moving southwestward this afternoon/evening across lower elevations. A very deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated severe wind gusts with this activity, even though instability and deep-layer shear will likely remain weak. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... As an upper trough digs southward from British Columbia to the northern Rockies today, a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will extend along/near the international border from MT to MN. At the surface, a front should also extend generally west-east across this region, displaced slightly south of the mid-level jet. The western portion of this front (across MT/ND) is forecast to move southward tonight as a surface low gradually develops/consolidates near the MT/ND/SD border. Forcing for ascent will remain weak for much of the day as mid-level heights remain neutral. Still, high-based convection may develop across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by this afternoon/evening. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest westerly mid-level flow present, some of these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for severe winds/hail as they move eastward through the evening. The potential for surface-based convection to develop in proximity to the front remains unclear. A conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist near the front, but weak forcing and increasing MLCIN/warmer temperatures aloft with southward extent cast considerable uncertainty regarding overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening. A better chance exists for elevated thunderstorms to occur tonight as the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. This activity could pose an isolated threat for mainly severe hail given ample MUCAPE and strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer. ...Eastern States... As a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to initially develop across the higher terrain of these regions. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. With daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, moderate instability should develop across the lower terrain east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians. Modestly steepened low-level lapse rates should also aid in some enhancement to convective downdrafts, with isolated strong to damaging winds possible as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Farther south across parts of FL and southeast GA, convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. This activity will be associated with a weak low/mid-level trough currently off the FL Atlantic Coast. While low-level and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain modest, some enhancement to mid/upper-level north-northeasterlies could promote multiple clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds given moderate to locally strong instability. ...Mid-South... A remnant MCV will drift east-northeastward today over the Mid-South and vicinity while gradually weakening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level flow attendant to this feature could support an isolated damaging wind threat with convection that develops this afternoon. But, with deep-layer shear expected to remain weak, the overall severe threat will likely remain quite isolated/marginal. ...Arizona... A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great Basin today. On the periphery of this anticyclone, around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow may aid thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM in moving southwestward this afternoon/evening across lower elevations. A very deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated severe wind gusts with this activity, even though instability and deep-layer shear will likely remain weak. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... As an upper trough digs southward from British Columbia to the northern Rockies today, a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will extend along/near the international border from MT to MN. At the surface, a front should also extend generally west-east across this region, displaced slightly south of the mid-level jet. The western portion of this front (across MT/ND) is forecast to move southward tonight as a surface low gradually develops/consolidates near the MT/ND/SD border. Forcing for ascent will remain weak for much of the day as mid-level heights remain neutral. Still, high-based convection may develop across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by this afternoon/evening. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest westerly mid-level flow present, some of these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for severe winds/hail as they move eastward through the evening. The potential for surface-based convection to develop in proximity to the front remains unclear. A conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist near the front, but weak forcing and increasing MLCIN/warmer temperatures aloft with southward extent cast considerable uncertainty regarding overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening. A better chance exists for elevated thunderstorms to occur tonight as the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. This activity could pose an isolated threat for mainly severe hail given ample MUCAPE and strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer. ...Eastern States... As a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to initially develop across the higher terrain of these regions. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. With daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, moderate instability should develop across the lower terrain east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians. Modestly steepened low-level lapse rates should also aid in some enhancement to convective downdrafts, with isolated strong to damaging winds possible as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Farther south across parts of FL and southeast GA, convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. This activity will be associated with a weak low/mid-level trough currently off the FL Atlantic Coast. While low-level and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain modest, some enhancement to mid/upper-level north-northeasterlies could promote multiple clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds given moderate to locally strong instability. ...Mid-South... A remnant MCV will drift east-northeastward today over the Mid-South and vicinity while gradually weakening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level flow attendant to this feature could support an isolated damaging wind threat with convection that develops this afternoon. But, with deep-layer shear expected to remain weak, the overall severe threat will likely remain quite isolated/marginal. ...Arizona... A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great Basin today. On the periphery of this anticyclone, around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow may aid thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM in moving southwestward this afternoon/evening across lower elevations. A very deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated severe wind gusts with this activity, even though instability and deep-layer shear will likely remain weak. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... As an upper trough digs southward from British Columbia to the northern Rockies today, a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will extend along/near the international border from MT to MN. At the surface, a front should also extend generally west-east across this region, displaced slightly south of the mid-level jet. The western portion of this front (across MT/ND) is forecast to move southward tonight as a surface low gradually develops/consolidates near the MT/ND/SD border. Forcing for ascent will remain weak for much of the day as mid-level heights remain neutral. Still, high-based convection may develop across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by this afternoon/evening. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest westerly mid-level flow present, some of these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for severe winds/hail as they move eastward through the evening. The potential for surface-based convection to develop in proximity to the front remains unclear. A conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist near the front, but weak forcing and increasing MLCIN/warmer temperatures aloft with southward extent cast considerable uncertainty regarding overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening. A better chance exists for elevated thunderstorms to occur tonight as the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. This activity could pose an isolated threat for mainly severe hail given ample MUCAPE and strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer. ...Eastern States... As a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to initially develop across the higher terrain of these regions. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. With daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, moderate instability should develop across the lower terrain east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians. Modestly steepened low-level lapse rates should also aid in some enhancement to convective downdrafts, with isolated strong to damaging winds possible as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Farther south across parts of FL and southeast GA, convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. This activity will be associated with a weak low/mid-level trough currently off the FL Atlantic Coast. While low-level and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain modest, some enhancement to mid/upper-level north-northeasterlies could promote multiple clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds given moderate to locally strong instability. ...Mid-South... A remnant MCV will drift east-northeastward today over the Mid-South and vicinity while gradually weakening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level flow attendant to this feature could support an isolated damaging wind threat with convection that develops this afternoon. But, with deep-layer shear expected to remain weak, the overall severe threat will likely remain quite isolated/marginal. ...Arizona... A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great Basin today. On the periphery of this anticyclone, around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow may aid thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM in moving southwestward this afternoon/evening across lower elevations. A very deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated severe wind gusts with this activity, even though instability and deep-layer shear will likely remain weak. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... As an upper trough digs southward from British Columbia to the northern Rockies today, a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will extend along/near the international border from MT to MN. At the surface, a front should also extend generally west-east across this region, displaced slightly south of the mid-level jet. The western portion of this front (across MT/ND) is forecast to move southward tonight as a surface low gradually develops/consolidates near the MT/ND/SD border. Forcing for ascent will remain weak for much of the day as mid-level heights remain neutral. Still, high-based convection may develop across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by this afternoon/evening. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest westerly mid-level flow present, some of these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for severe winds/hail as they move eastward through the evening. The potential for surface-based convection to develop in proximity to the front remains unclear. A conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist near the front, but weak forcing and increasing MLCIN/warmer temperatures aloft with southward extent cast considerable uncertainty regarding overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening. A better chance exists for elevated thunderstorms to occur tonight as the upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. This activity could pose an isolated threat for mainly severe hail given ample MUCAPE and strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer. ...Eastern States... As a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to initially develop across the higher terrain of these regions. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. With daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, moderate instability should develop across the lower terrain east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians. Modestly steepened low-level lapse rates should also aid in some enhancement to convective downdrafts, with isolated strong to damaging winds possible as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Farther south across parts of FL and southeast GA, convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. This activity will be associated with a weak low/mid-level trough currently off the FL Atlantic Coast. While low-level and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain modest, some enhancement to mid/upper-level north-northeasterlies could promote multiple clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds given moderate to locally strong instability. ...Mid-South... A remnant MCV will drift east-northeastward today over the Mid-South and vicinity while gradually weakening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level flow attendant to this feature could support an isolated damaging wind threat with convection that develops this afternoon. But, with deep-layer shear expected to remain weak, the overall severe threat will likely remain quite isolated/marginal. ...Arizona... A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great Basin today. On the periphery of this anticyclone, around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow may aid thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM in moving southwestward this afternoon/evening across lower elevations. A very deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated severe wind gusts with this activity, even though instability and deep-layer shear will likely remain weak. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/14/2025 Read more