Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be possible through the period as individual shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S. through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a result, predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be possible through the period as individual shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S. through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a result, predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be possible through the period as individual shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S. through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a result, predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be possible through the period as individual shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S. through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a result, predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be possible through the period as individual shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S. through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a result, predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be possible through the period as individual shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S. through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a result, predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be possible through the period as individual shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S. through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a result, predictability is low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into Illinois and Wisconsin. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity... A shortwave upper trough and likely MCV from Day 2/Tuesday convection will move across MN/WI and the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Another upper trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the northern/central Plains. These two features will result in enhanced westerly flow atop a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer from the central High Plains toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front/composite outflow (related to Day 2/Tuesday storms) will percolate southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Uncertainty exists regarding location of key surface boundaries/MCVs, as these features will be tied to convective evolution in the Day 2/Tuesday period. Nevertheless, a very moist and unstable airmass and favorable vertical shear should support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the surface front. Additional strong storms are possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. As the location of key features become more certain in the coming couple of days, the outlook area may shift and/or upgrades may become necessary. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into Illinois and Wisconsin. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity... A shortwave upper trough and likely MCV from Day 2/Tuesday convection will move across MN/WI and the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Another upper trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the northern/central Plains. These two features will result in enhanced westerly flow atop a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer from the central High Plains toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front/composite outflow (related to Day 2/Tuesday storms) will percolate southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Uncertainty exists regarding location of key surface boundaries/MCVs, as these features will be tied to convective evolution in the Day 2/Tuesday period. Nevertheless, a very moist and unstable airmass and favorable vertical shear should support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the surface front. Additional strong storms are possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. As the location of key features become more certain in the coming couple of days, the outlook area may shift and/or upgrades may become necessary. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into Illinois and Wisconsin. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity... A shortwave upper trough and likely MCV from Day 2/Tuesday convection will move across MN/WI and the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Another upper trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the northern/central Plains. These two features will result in enhanced westerly flow atop a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer from the central High Plains toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front/composite outflow (related to Day 2/Tuesday storms) will percolate southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Uncertainty exists regarding location of key surface boundaries/MCVs, as these features will be tied to convective evolution in the Day 2/Tuesday period. Nevertheless, a very moist and unstable airmass and favorable vertical shear should support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the surface front. Additional strong storms are possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. As the location of key features become more certain in the coming couple of days, the outlook area may shift and/or upgrades may become necessary. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into Illinois and Wisconsin. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity... A shortwave upper trough and likely MCV from Day 2/Tuesday convection will move across MN/WI and the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Another upper trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the northern/central Plains. These two features will result in enhanced westerly flow atop a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer from the central High Plains toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front/composite outflow (related to Day 2/Tuesday storms) will percolate southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Uncertainty exists regarding location of key surface boundaries/MCVs, as these features will be tied to convective evolution in the Day 2/Tuesday period. Nevertheless, a very moist and unstable airmass and favorable vertical shear should support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the surface front. Additional strong storms are possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. As the location of key features become more certain in the coming couple of days, the outlook area may shift and/or upgrades may become necessary. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into Illinois and Wisconsin. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity... A shortwave upper trough and likely MCV from Day 2/Tuesday convection will move across MN/WI and the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Another upper trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the northern/central Plains. These two features will result in enhanced westerly flow atop a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer from the central High Plains toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front/composite outflow (related to Day 2/Tuesday storms) will percolate southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Uncertainty exists regarding location of key surface boundaries/MCVs, as these features will be tied to convective evolution in the Day 2/Tuesday period. Nevertheless, a very moist and unstable airmass and favorable vertical shear should support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the surface front. Additional strong storms are possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. As the location of key features become more certain in the coming couple of days, the outlook area may shift and/or upgrades may become necessary. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into Illinois and Wisconsin. ...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity... A shortwave upper trough and likely MCV from Day 2/Tuesday convection will move across MN/WI and the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Another upper trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the northern/central Plains. These two features will result in enhanced westerly flow atop a moist and moderate to strongly unstable boundary layer from the central High Plains toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front/composite outflow (related to Day 2/Tuesday storms) will percolate southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Uncertainty exists regarding location of key surface boundaries/MCVs, as these features will be tied to convective evolution in the Day 2/Tuesday period. Nevertheless, a very moist and unstable airmass and favorable vertical shear should support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the surface front. Additional strong storms are possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. As the location of key features become more certain in the coming couple of days, the outlook area may shift and/or upgrades may become necessary. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more