Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

MD 1667 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR VT/NH AND WESTERN ME INTO EASTERN NY...WESTERN MA/CT...NORTHEAST PA...AND NORTHERN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1667 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...VT/NH and western ME into eastern NY...western MA/CT...northeast PA...and northern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141720Z - 141945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of localized damaging winds are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening early this afternoon from western VT/ME into eastern NY and northeast PA. Continued heating of a very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE increasing above 1500 J/kg, and storm coverage is expected to increase with time as a midlevel shortwave trough over western PA approaches the region. Weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity, but modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow and effective shear of 25-30 kt could support occasional storm organization. Relatively large PW (generally 1.5 - 1.8 inches) may result in localized downbursts with any stronger cells, while a few outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time. The strongest cells/clusters may be capable of producing localized damaging winds through the afternoon. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... CTP... LAT...LON 41517675 41807718 42147708 42557614 43477414 45097322 45227158 46866999 47106872 46856832 45636945 45176986 44547034 43827094 42897169 42347226 41497320 40547430 40797495 41127576 41517675 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more