Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern High Plains on Friday. ...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley... An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S. with modest northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE, southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty winds and marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An IsoDryT area was added for the portions of the Washington Cascades. High-based showers intermixed with lightning are forecast to move through the Washington Cascades today into tomorrow morning. Some clearing is expected late tomorrow morning into the afternoon that will help initiate thunderstorms over the Washington Cascades during the afternoon and evening. PWAT values will likely dip below 1" with storm motions of 10-20 knots, helping to reduce rainfall totals. This combined with very dry fuels supports an IsoDryT area. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over the Olympic Peninsula, northeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle, but enough forecast uncertainty exists regarding actual lightning production and rainfall totals to preclude expanding the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more