Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe storms could also occur today over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe storms could also occur today over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Central/southern High Plains... Multiple ridge-riding mid/upper-level disturbances will transition generally east/eventually southeastward from the central Rockies and northern High Plains today. Weak lee-side low development will occur across southeast Colorado and also perhaps farther north across the central High Plains, with modestly sharpening low-level convergence in vicinity of the lee trough. This will lead to a gradual enhancement of low-level upslope flow particularly across east-central/southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Storms should develop/increase by mid-afternoon and gradually move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity, with other development occurring near the surface boundary extending north-northeastward into west-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by peak heating. With moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow persisting regionally, 35-40 kt or greater effective shear will exist from the Raton Mesa vicinity across the central High Plains into west-central Nebraska. A few supercells capable of large hail may occur, with the additional possibility of wind damage, especially with a probable clustering of storms across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across northeast Texas to central/southeast Louisiana to the north of a front that will settle southward today across the region. A related cloud canopy will extend southward into the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop near the front this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe storms could also occur today over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Central/southern High Plains... Multiple ridge-riding mid/upper-level disturbances will transition generally east/eventually southeastward from the central Rockies and northern High Plains today. Weak lee-side low development will occur across southeast Colorado and also perhaps farther north across the central High Plains, with modestly sharpening low-level convergence in vicinity of the lee trough. This will lead to a gradual enhancement of low-level upslope flow particularly across east-central/southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Storms should develop/increase by mid-afternoon and gradually move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity, with other development occurring near the surface boundary extending north-northeastward into west-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by peak heating. With moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow persisting regionally, 35-40 kt or greater effective shear will exist from the Raton Mesa vicinity across the central High Plains into west-central Nebraska. A few supercells capable of large hail may occur, with the additional possibility of wind damage, especially with a probable clustering of storms across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across northeast Texas to central/southeast Louisiana to the north of a front that will settle southward today across the region. A related cloud canopy will extend southward into the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop near the front this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe storms could also occur today over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Central/southern High Plains... Multiple ridge-riding mid/upper-level disturbances will transition generally east/eventually southeastward from the central Rockies and northern High Plains today. Weak lee-side low development will occur across southeast Colorado and also perhaps farther north across the central High Plains, with modestly sharpening low-level convergence in vicinity of the lee trough. This will lead to a gradual enhancement of low-level upslope flow particularly across east-central/southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Storms should develop/increase by mid-afternoon and gradually move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity, with other development occurring near the surface boundary extending north-northeastward into west-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by peak heating. With moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow persisting regionally, 35-40 kt or greater effective shear will exist from the Raton Mesa vicinity across the central High Plains into west-central Nebraska. A few supercells capable of large hail may occur, with the additional possibility of wind damage, especially with a probable clustering of storms across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across northeast Texas to central/southeast Louisiana to the north of a front that will settle southward today across the region. A related cloud canopy will extend southward into the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop near the front this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe storms could also occur today over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Central/southern High Plains... Multiple ridge-riding mid/upper-level disturbances will transition generally east/eventually southeastward from the central Rockies and northern High Plains today. Weak lee-side low development will occur across southeast Colorado and also perhaps farther north across the central High Plains, with modestly sharpening low-level convergence in vicinity of the lee trough. This will lead to a gradual enhancement of low-level upslope flow particularly across east-central/southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Storms should develop/increase by mid-afternoon and gradually move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity, with other development occurring near the surface boundary extending north-northeastward into west-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by peak heating. With moderately strong northwesterly mid-level flow persisting regionally, 35-40 kt or greater effective shear will exist from the Raton Mesa vicinity across the central High Plains into west-central Nebraska. A few supercells capable of large hail may occur, with the additional possibility of wind damage, especially with a probable clustering of storms across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across northeast Texas to central/southeast Louisiana to the north of a front that will settle southward today across the region. A related cloud canopy will extend southward into the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop near the front this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/29/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another mid-level trough retrogrades northwestward from the Pacific Northwest, resulting in a broad northwesterly flow regime across most of the CONUS on Sunday. Surface lee troughing will persist across the Plains states, where adequate moisture will be in place to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Guidance consensus shows that both vertical wind shear and instability will be rather weak over the Plains. While isolated instances of sub-severe wind and hail are possible, the threat for severe hazards appears too sparse to warrant severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. Ridging will continue across much of the western US with warming and drying conditions. An upper-level low will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with precipitable water increasing across much of the region west of the Cascades. Conditions west of the Cascades will be much drier, but overall wind speeds are expected to be light. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more