Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex... A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River. Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating into the 90s. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near 2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the central High Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and early evening. ...Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain suppressed over TX today, with modest mid-level westerly flow persisting across the central Plains. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across eastern CO, which should aid in diurnal destabilization this afternoon. Gradual low-level moisture return is forecast to continue today across the central High Plains, generally along and east of a weak lee trough/low where low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. With scattered to numerous thunderstorms over much of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies yesterday, there is not a notable EML present over the central High Plains today (reference 12Z observed DDC sounding). This should temper the degree of instability that can develop through the afternoon to some extent. Even so, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears plausible with additional diurnal heating of the modestly moistened low-level airmass. Weak low-level southerly flow will veer to westerly and gradually strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting around 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to develop initially along/near the Front Range this afternoon, before spreading slowly east-southeastward across eastern CO and parts of western KS through the evening. Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest cores/marginal supercell structures, until gradual outflow/cold pool amalgamation encourages one or more clusters with a greater threat for occasional strong to severe gusts. Based on latest observational and short-term guidance trends, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of eastern CO and western KS. Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely continue overnight into central/eastern KS in a modest low-level warm advection regime. However, confidence in a continued hail/wind threat with this activity remains low at this time. ...Upper Midwest... On the western side of a large-scale upper trough over eastern Canada and the Atlantic Coast states, modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to persist through much of the period. A weak embedded shortwave trough moving across southern MN and vicinity late this morning suggests modest large-scale subsidence in its wake. This casts some uncertainty on the possible development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms later today along/south of a weak surface trough across eastern SD into central/southern MN. Even so, most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms will form across this region by late afternoon/early evening. Cool mid-level temperatures and generally long/straight hodographs aloft suggest some threat for severe hail with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have therefore added a focused Marginal Risk across parts of eastern SD into southern MN for this potential. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z IsoDryT area was trimmed in portions of eastern Washington, northwest Montana, and the Idaho Panhandle. PWAT values are generally over 1" for much if not all of the IsoDryT area today, and the possibility of training storms today and development of showers and wet thunderstorms in following days over the same locations lowers confidence in the outlook. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of central into northwest Montana east of the Rockies as breezy easterly winds develop amid a modestly dry airmass. ..Nauslar.. 08/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe storms may occur across eastern Colorado and the central High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Eastern Colorado/Central High Plains... Prevalent cloud cover and some lingering mostly light precipitation should eventually abate later this afternoon, with thunderstorms expected to develop/increase initially over the mountains by around mid-afternoon. These storms will spread east-southeastward toward the instability axis across the adjacent High Plains through early evening. Moderately strong mid-level flow could support some semi-organized storms, and a couple of clusters could evolve by evening. Localized instances of marginally severe hail and/or wind could occur, although locally heavy rainfall may be more of a prevalent concern. ...Upper Midwest... A region of moderate instability is forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota this afternoon. But this will be in the wake of a southeastward-moving shortwave trough, with weak height rises and subsidence in its wake. Nonetheless, isolated storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening, and a few strong storms are conceivable. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/27/2025 Read more