Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool, stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day 8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool, stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day 8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool, stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day 8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-low over New England will gradually drift away from the U.S. as an upper ridge builds west of the Rockies this weekend into early next week. Surface troughing will persist across the Plains states, with adequate low-level moisture remaining in place to support scattered thunderstorms. At the moment, it appears that any severe risk will be sparse at best. As the upper ridge persists, a positively tilted upper trough will rapidly translate from Canada into the MS Valley during the middle of next week, accompanied by a progressive surface cold front. This cold front will bring a cool, stable airmass to much of the northern and central Plains into the MS Valley, reducing thunderstorm potential. Strong storms could occur immediately ahead of the surface cold front around Day 8/Wednesday, though questions surrounding the placement and timing of this front preclude the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out from the Sabine River Valley to the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cutoff low will meander over New England while upper ridging prevails over the western and central U.S. on Friday. As surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and Interior West, weak surface troughing will encourage low-level moisture return across the Plains states. With daytime heating, thunderstorms may develop off of a remnant outflow boundary across central TX into the Sabine River Valley that was left behind by storms from Day 2. Storms are also expected to develop off of the higher terrain across the High Plains given modest upslope low-level flow. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates/vertical wind shear, will support isolated strong thunderstorms across the southern High Plains toward the Sabine River Valley (along the outflow boundary). Sub-severe wind/hail should accompany the stronger storms. However, mediocre thermodynamic vertical profiles (evident via forecast soundings), suggest that severe storms should be quite sparse, with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out from the Sabine River Valley to the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cutoff low will meander over New England while upper ridging prevails over the western and central U.S. on Friday. As surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and Interior West, weak surface troughing will encourage low-level moisture return across the Plains states. With daytime heating, thunderstorms may develop off of a remnant outflow boundary across central TX into the Sabine River Valley that was left behind by storms from Day 2. Storms are also expected to develop off of the higher terrain across the High Plains given modest upslope low-level flow. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates/vertical wind shear, will support isolated strong thunderstorms across the southern High Plains toward the Sabine River Valley (along the outflow boundary). Sub-severe wind/hail should accompany the stronger storms. However, mediocre thermodynamic vertical profiles (evident via forecast soundings), suggest that severe storms should be quite sparse, with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out from the Sabine River Valley to the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cutoff low will meander over New England while upper ridging prevails over the western and central U.S. on Friday. As surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and Interior West, weak surface troughing will encourage low-level moisture return across the Plains states. With daytime heating, thunderstorms may develop off of a remnant outflow boundary across central TX into the Sabine River Valley that was left behind by storms from Day 2. Storms are also expected to develop off of the higher terrain across the High Plains given modest upslope low-level flow. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates/vertical wind shear, will support isolated strong thunderstorms across the southern High Plains toward the Sabine River Valley (along the outflow boundary). Sub-severe wind/hail should accompany the stronger storms. However, mediocre thermodynamic vertical profiles (evident via forecast soundings), suggest that severe storms should be quite sparse, with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out from the Sabine River Valley to the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cutoff low will meander over New England while upper ridging prevails over the western and central U.S. on Friday. As surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and Interior West, weak surface troughing will encourage low-level moisture return across the Plains states. With daytime heating, thunderstorms may develop off of a remnant outflow boundary across central TX into the Sabine River Valley that was left behind by storms from Day 2. Storms are also expected to develop off of the higher terrain across the High Plains given modest upslope low-level flow. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates/vertical wind shear, will support isolated strong thunderstorms across the southern High Plains toward the Sabine River Valley (along the outflow boundary). Sub-severe wind/hail should accompany the stronger storms. However, mediocre thermodynamic vertical profiles (evident via forecast soundings), suggest that severe storms should be quite sparse, with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out from the Sabine River Valley to the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cutoff low will meander over New England while upper ridging prevails over the western and central U.S. on Friday. As surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and Interior West, weak surface troughing will encourage low-level moisture return across the Plains states. With daytime heating, thunderstorms may develop off of a remnant outflow boundary across central TX into the Sabine River Valley that was left behind by storms from Day 2. Storms are also expected to develop off of the higher terrain across the High Plains given modest upslope low-level flow. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates/vertical wind shear, will support isolated strong thunderstorms across the southern High Plains toward the Sabine River Valley (along the outflow boundary). Sub-severe wind/hail should accompany the stronger storms. However, mediocre thermodynamic vertical profiles (evident via forecast soundings), suggest that severe storms should be quite sparse, with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Forcing for ascent accompanying a remnant midlevel low will support isolated thunderstorms across parts of WA during the afternoon/evening, given sufficient midlevel moisture/buoyancy. While any storms that form may pose some risk of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, increasing boundary-layer RH and potentially low storm coverage may limit the threat compared to Day 1/Wednesday. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A pair of convectively augmented midlevel lows will track northward across the Northwest today. The associated forcing for ascent coupled with an influx of deepening midlevel moisture will support sufficient buoyancy for isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. While storm coverage may be somewhat limited (5-10 percent), any embedded storms may pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and locally gusty winds across parts of WA into the ID Panhandle and far northwest MT, given dry fuels. Farther south, a continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across OR into northern CA, though preceding days of modest rainfall limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 08/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat, are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical wind shear. ...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height, will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025 Read more