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2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of
the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively
augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated
forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for
isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given
dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk
of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal
moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern
OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits
confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels
remain dry.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of
the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively
augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated
forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for
isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given
dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk
of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal
moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern
OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits
confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels
remain dry.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of
the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively
augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated
forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for
isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given
dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk
of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal
moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern
OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits
confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels
remain dry.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of
the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively
augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated
forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for
isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given
dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk
of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal
moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern
OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits
confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels
remain dry.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
Monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward across parts of
the Northwest and northern Rockies, while a pair of convectively
augmented midlevel lows overspread the region. The associated
forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy will support some potential for
isolated/embedded lightning within high-based showers. Given
dry/receptive fuels, any lightning that does occur will pose a risk
of new ignitions along the leading edge of the deeper monsoonal
moisture plume. Additionally, another day of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern CA into southern
OR. Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, several days of rainfall limits
confidence in the overall fire-weather threat, though isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible where fuels
remain dry.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
One or more subtle midlevel disturbances will overspread the
Northwest today, where well-established monsoonal moisture is in
place. The associated forcing for ascent and sufficient buoyancy
should support a mix of wet/dry high-based thunderstorms over the
Cascades during afternoon into the evening. While thunderstorm
coverage may remain somewhat limited (potentially 5-10 percent), any
storms that form may pose a risk of new ignitions and gusty/erratic
outflow winds. A continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is
expected farther south into northern CA, though several days of rain
casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness -- precluding highlights at
this time.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
One or more subtle midlevel disturbances will overspread the
Northwest today, where well-established monsoonal moisture is in
place. The associated forcing for ascent and sufficient buoyancy
should support a mix of wet/dry high-based thunderstorms over the
Cascades during afternoon into the evening. While thunderstorm
coverage may remain somewhat limited (potentially 5-10 percent), any
storms that form may pose a risk of new ignitions and gusty/erratic
outflow winds. A continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is
expected farther south into northern CA, though several days of rain
casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness -- precluding highlights at
this time.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
One or more subtle midlevel disturbances will overspread the
Northwest today, where well-established monsoonal moisture is in
place. The associated forcing for ascent and sufficient buoyancy
should support a mix of wet/dry high-based thunderstorms over the
Cascades during afternoon into the evening. While thunderstorm
coverage may remain somewhat limited (potentially 5-10 percent), any
storms that form may pose a risk of new ignitions and gusty/erratic
outflow winds. A continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is
expected farther south into northern CA, though several days of rain
casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness -- precluding highlights at
this time.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
One or more subtle midlevel disturbances will overspread the
Northwest today, where well-established monsoonal moisture is in
place. The associated forcing for ascent and sufficient buoyancy
should support a mix of wet/dry high-based thunderstorms over the
Cascades during afternoon into the evening. While thunderstorm
coverage may remain somewhat limited (potentially 5-10 percent), any
storms that form may pose a risk of new ignitions and gusty/erratic
outflow winds. A continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is
expected farther south into northern CA, though several days of rain
casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness -- precluding highlights at
this time.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
One or more subtle midlevel disturbances will overspread the
Northwest today, where well-established monsoonal moisture is in
place. The associated forcing for ascent and sufficient buoyancy
should support a mix of wet/dry high-based thunderstorms over the
Cascades during afternoon into the evening. While thunderstorm
coverage may remain somewhat limited (potentially 5-10 percent), any
storms that form may pose a risk of new ignitions and gusty/erratic
outflow winds. A continuation of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is
expected farther south into northern CA, though several days of rain
casts uncertainty on fuel receptiveness -- precluding highlights at
this time.
..Weinman.. 08/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A few stronger storms are
possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range.
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S., with an
embedded impulse ejecting into the Atlantic as a second impulse
impinges on the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will persist over the
Southwest while a weak mid-level cut-off low meanders across the
Pacific Northwest. A surface high will become established east of
the MS River, with low-level moisture poised to pivot around the
surface high and advect northward across the Plains into the Great
Lakes region, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the High
Plains during the afternoon given lee surface troughing, with
elevated thunderstorms continuing into the central Plains overnight
within a warm-air advection regime. The best chance for any strong
storms would be over portions of the Colorado Front Range and the
Upper Midwest, where an overlap of marginally favorable shear and
instability may exist.
...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
The second impulse pivoting around the broader upper trough over the
Great Lakes will promote an organized round of thunderstorms within
a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Modest mid-level lapse rates
will overspread low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE across extreme eastern SD toward the MN/IA border.
Modest veering flow with height will encourage 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear as well. As such, a few strong storms with
sub-severe wind and hail are possible around afternoon peak heating.
...Colorado Front Range...
Upslope low-level flow across the central High Plains will support
60+ f surface dewpoints to advect northwestward toward the Colorado
Front Range. Here, increasing westerly flow with height will support
some speed shear, evident in forecast soundings as relatively
straight hodographs. Lapse rates are expected to be poor (i.e.
around 6.5 C/km), with MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg via thin
profiles. A few of the stronger storms may produce some wind and
hail, but these hazards are currently expected to remain generally
below severe limits.
..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A few stronger storms are
possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range.
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S., with an
embedded impulse ejecting into the Atlantic as a second impulse
impinges on the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will persist over the
Southwest while a weak mid-level cut-off low meanders across the
Pacific Northwest. A surface high will become established east of
the MS River, with low-level moisture poised to pivot around the
surface high and advect northward across the Plains into the Great
Lakes region, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the High
Plains during the afternoon given lee surface troughing, with
elevated thunderstorms continuing into the central Plains overnight
within a warm-air advection regime. The best chance for any strong
storms would be over portions of the Colorado Front Range and the
Upper Midwest, where an overlap of marginally favorable shear and
instability may exist.
...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
The second impulse pivoting around the broader upper trough over the
Great Lakes will promote an organized round of thunderstorms within
a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Modest mid-level lapse rates
will overspread low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE across extreme eastern SD toward the MN/IA border.
Modest veering flow with height will encourage 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear as well. As such, a few strong storms with
sub-severe wind and hail are possible around afternoon peak heating.
...Colorado Front Range...
Upslope low-level flow across the central High Plains will support
60+ f surface dewpoints to advect northwestward toward the Colorado
Front Range. Here, increasing westerly flow with height will support
some speed shear, evident in forecast soundings as relatively
straight hodographs. Lapse rates are expected to be poor (i.e.
around 6.5 C/km), with MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg via thin
profiles. A few of the stronger storms may produce some wind and
hail, but these hazards are currently expected to remain generally
below severe limits.
..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A few stronger storms are
possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range.
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S., with an
embedded impulse ejecting into the Atlantic as a second impulse
impinges on the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will persist over the
Southwest while a weak mid-level cut-off low meanders across the
Pacific Northwest. A surface high will become established east of
the MS River, with low-level moisture poised to pivot around the
surface high and advect northward across the Plains into the Great
Lakes region, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the High
Plains during the afternoon given lee surface troughing, with
elevated thunderstorms continuing into the central Plains overnight
within a warm-air advection regime. The best chance for any strong
storms would be over portions of the Colorado Front Range and the
Upper Midwest, where an overlap of marginally favorable shear and
instability may exist.
...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
The second impulse pivoting around the broader upper trough over the
Great Lakes will promote an organized round of thunderstorms within
a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Modest mid-level lapse rates
will overspread low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE across extreme eastern SD toward the MN/IA border.
Modest veering flow with height will encourage 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear as well. As such, a few strong storms with
sub-severe wind and hail are possible around afternoon peak heating.
...Colorado Front Range...
Upslope low-level flow across the central High Plains will support
60+ f surface dewpoints to advect northwestward toward the Colorado
Front Range. Here, increasing westerly flow with height will support
some speed shear, evident in forecast soundings as relatively
straight hodographs. Lapse rates are expected to be poor (i.e.
around 6.5 C/km), with MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg via thin
profiles. A few of the stronger storms may produce some wind and
hail, but these hazards are currently expected to remain generally
below severe limits.
..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A few stronger storms are
possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range.
...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S., with an
embedded impulse ejecting into the Atlantic as a second impulse
impinges on the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will persist over the
Southwest while a weak mid-level cut-off low meanders across the
Pacific Northwest. A surface high will become established east of
the MS River, with low-level moisture poised to pivot around the
surface high and advect northward across the Plains into the Great
Lakes region, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the High
Plains during the afternoon given lee surface troughing, with
elevated thunderstorms continuing into the central Plains overnight
within a warm-air advection regime. The best chance for any strong
storms would be over portions of the Colorado Front Range and the
Upper Midwest, where an overlap of marginally favorable shear and
instability may exist.
...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
The second impulse pivoting around the broader upper trough over the
Great Lakes will promote an organized round of thunderstorms within
a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Modest mid-level lapse rates
will overspread low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE across extreme eastern SD toward the MN/IA border.
Modest veering flow with height will encourage 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear as well. As such, a few strong storms with
sub-severe wind and hail are possible around afternoon peak heating.
...Colorado Front Range...
Upslope low-level flow across the central High Plains will support
60+ f surface dewpoints to advect northwestward toward the Colorado
Front Range. Here, increasing westerly flow with height will support
some speed shear, evident in forecast soundings as relatively
straight hodographs. Lapse rates are expected to be poor (i.e.
around 6.5 C/km), with MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg via thin
profiles. A few of the stronger storms may produce some wind and
hail, but these hazards are currently expected to remain generally
below severe limits.
..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper-level trough will be present across the eastern
CONUS today. At the surface, a cool, dry airmass and high pressure
will dominate most of the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm
potential. Widespread monsoonal thunderstorm activity will occur
across much of the western CONUS.
...Southern Arizona...
Weak instability is forecast across southern Arizona with sufficient
heating for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow
around 20 knots Tuesday morning will weaken slightly by the
afternoon. This belt of enhanced flow may provide enough shear for a
stronger multicell thunderstorm with an isolated damaging wind
threat. However, overall, expect storm organization to be limited
with mostly sub-severe convection due to weaker instability and
shear than Monday.
Given the number of storms across the western CONUS today, isolated
damaging wind gusts may be possible. However, a more organized
region/threat is not apparent.
..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/26/2025
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper-level trough will be present across the eastern
CONUS today. At the surface, a cool, dry airmass and high pressure
will dominate most of the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm
potential. Widespread monsoonal thunderstorm activity will occur
across much of the western CONUS.
...Southern Arizona...
Weak instability is forecast across southern Arizona with sufficient
heating for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow
around 20 knots Tuesday morning will weaken slightly by the
afternoon. This belt of enhanced flow may provide enough shear for a
stronger multicell thunderstorm with an isolated damaging wind
threat. However, overall, expect storm organization to be limited
with mostly sub-severe convection due to weaker instability and
shear than Monday.
Given the number of storms across the western CONUS today, isolated
damaging wind gusts may be possible. However, a more organized
region/threat is not apparent.
..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/26/2025
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper-level trough will be present across the eastern
CONUS today. At the surface, a cool, dry airmass and high pressure
will dominate most of the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm
potential. Widespread monsoonal thunderstorm activity will occur
across much of the western CONUS.
...Southern Arizona...
Weak instability is forecast across southern Arizona with sufficient
heating for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow
around 20 knots Tuesday morning will weaken slightly by the
afternoon. This belt of enhanced flow may provide enough shear for a
stronger multicell thunderstorm with an isolated damaging wind
threat. However, overall, expect storm organization to be limited
with mostly sub-severe convection due to weaker instability and
shear than Monday.
Given the number of storms across the western CONUS today, isolated
damaging wind gusts may be possible. However, a more organized
region/threat is not apparent.
..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/26/2025
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper-level trough will be present across the eastern
CONUS today. At the surface, a cool, dry airmass and high pressure
will dominate most of the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm
potential. Widespread monsoonal thunderstorm activity will occur
across much of the western CONUS.
...Southern Arizona...
Weak instability is forecast across southern Arizona with sufficient
heating for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Mid-level flow
around 20 knots Tuesday morning will weaken slightly by the
afternoon. This belt of enhanced flow may provide enough shear for a
stronger multicell thunderstorm with an isolated damaging wind
threat. However, overall, expect storm organization to be limited
with mostly sub-severe convection due to weaker instability and
shear than Monday.
Given the number of storms across the western CONUS today, isolated
damaging wind gusts may be possible. However, a more organized
region/threat is not apparent.
..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/26/2025
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central
Arizona for a few more hours this evening. Otherwise, the potential
for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental
U.S.
...Discussion...
A cluster of storms has produced some damaging winds across
south-central Arizona. As the boundary layer cools this evening,
expect these storms to weaken. However, the threat for isolated
damaging winds will persist for a few more hours amid 1000+ J/kg
DCAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates.
Elsewhere, diurnal thunderstorms across the western CONUS will wane
this evening. Additional storms are expected to develop from the TX
Panhandle to western Oklahoma tonight, but weak instability should
limit any severe weather potential from this activity.
..Bentley.. 08/26/2025
Read more
2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central
Arizona for a few more hours this evening. Otherwise, the potential
for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental
U.S.
...Discussion...
A cluster of storms has produced some damaging winds across
south-central Arizona. As the boundary layer cools this evening,
expect these storms to weaken. However, the threat for isolated
damaging winds will persist for a few more hours amid 1000+ J/kg
DCAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates.
Elsewhere, diurnal thunderstorms across the western CONUS will wane
this evening. Additional storms are expected to develop from the TX
Panhandle to western Oklahoma tonight, but weak instability should
limit any severe weather potential from this activity.
..Bentley.. 08/26/2025
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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