Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS today, as several embedded shortwave troughs progress within its southern periphery. Extensive upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into the northern Intermountain West is forecast to remain largely in place. Some dampening may occur along the northwestern periphery of this ridging as a slow-moving vorticity maximum continues northeastward from the CO/OR/NV border vicinity into more of eastern OR. Ample monsoonal moisture exists beneath this ridging, contributing to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the southern/central Rockies westward across the Southwest and much of the Great Basin. Limited vertical shear and weak buoyancy will mitigate the severe potential across the majority of the region. The only exceptions are across central Rockies and immediate foothills, and portions of southern AZ. ...Southern AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is in place across the region, evidenced by PW values of 1.66 and 1.83 inches from the Phoenix and Yuma 12Z soundings, respectively. Filtered diurnal heating within this moist airmass will support modest buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region this afternoon, providing ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ...Central Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain by the early afternoon. Poor lapse rates and cooler temperatures will keep buoyancy will be modest, likely limiting overall updraft strength and tempering the severe potential. Even so, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs and the potential for some storm organization if updrafts can become sufficiently deep. An instance or two of hail is possible with any stronger, more long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Moore.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS today, as several embedded shortwave troughs progress within its southern periphery. Extensive upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into the northern Intermountain West is forecast to remain largely in place. Some dampening may occur along the northwestern periphery of this ridging as a slow-moving vorticity maximum continues northeastward from the CO/OR/NV border vicinity into more of eastern OR. Ample monsoonal moisture exists beneath this ridging, contributing to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the southern/central Rockies westward across the Southwest and much of the Great Basin. Limited vertical shear and weak buoyancy will mitigate the severe potential across the majority of the region. The only exceptions are across central Rockies and immediate foothills, and portions of southern AZ. ...Southern AZ... Ample monsoonal moisture is in place across the region, evidenced by PW values of 1.66 and 1.83 inches from the Phoenix and Yuma 12Z soundings, respectively. Filtered diurnal heating within this moist airmass will support modest buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region this afternoon, providing ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ...Central Rockies... Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain by the early afternoon. Poor lapse rates and cooler temperatures will keep buoyancy will be modest, likely limiting overall updraft strength and tempering the severe potential. Even so, moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support long hodographs and the potential for some storm organization if updrafts can become sufficiently deep. An instance or two of hail is possible with any stronger, more long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Moore.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ..Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally west-northwestward through the evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to be in place over the eastern U.S., as a ridge remains over the central Rockies. A pocket of moderate instability could develop in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon, near an east-to-west front in the Red River Valley. Enough deep-layer is forecast for an isolated severe threat, but some uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any threat. The front is forecast to move southward into the Gulf Coast states on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front from east Texas into Louisiana, where an isolated severe threat could again develop during the afternoon. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, would should keep any severe threat marginal. Further northwest on Friday, an axis of instability is forecast across the southern and central High Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near this axis from late afternoon into the evening. This same potential will be possible on Saturday as the instability axis remains in place across the southern and central High Plains. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for a marginal severe threat both on Friday and Saturday. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Plains. In the wake of this feature, scattered thunderstorms could develop across the High Plains near a north-to-south axis of instability. A marginal severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but deep-layer shear is forecast remain relatively weak. This should be a limiting factor concerning any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to be in place over the eastern U.S., as a ridge remains over the central Rockies. A pocket of moderate instability could develop in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon, near an east-to-west front in the Red River Valley. Enough deep-layer is forecast for an isolated severe threat, but some uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any threat. The front is forecast to move southward into the Gulf Coast states on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front from east Texas into Louisiana, where an isolated severe threat could again develop during the afternoon. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, would should keep any severe threat marginal. Further northwest on Friday, an axis of instability is forecast across the southern and central High Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near this axis from late afternoon into the evening. This same potential will be possible on Saturday as the instability axis remains in place across the southern and central High Plains. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for a marginal severe threat both on Friday and Saturday. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Plains. In the wake of this feature, scattered thunderstorms could develop across the High Plains near a north-to-south axis of instability. A marginal severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but deep-layer shear is forecast remain relatively weak. This should be a limiting factor concerning any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to be in place over the eastern U.S., as a ridge remains over the central Rockies. A pocket of moderate instability could develop in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon, near an east-to-west front in the Red River Valley. Enough deep-layer is forecast for an isolated severe threat, but some uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any threat. The front is forecast to move southward into the Gulf Coast states on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front from east Texas into Louisiana, where an isolated severe threat could again develop during the afternoon. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, would should keep any severe threat marginal. Further northwest on Friday, an axis of instability is forecast across the southern and central High Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near this axis from late afternoon into the evening. This same potential will be possible on Saturday as the instability axis remains in place across the southern and central High Plains. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for a marginal severe threat both on Friday and Saturday. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Plains. In the wake of this feature, scattered thunderstorms could develop across the High Plains near a north-to-south axis of instability. A marginal severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but deep-layer shear is forecast remain relatively weak. This should be a limiting factor concerning any severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to be in place over the eastern U.S., as a ridge remains over the central Rockies. A pocket of moderate instability could develop in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon, near an east-to-west front in the Red River Valley. Enough deep-layer is forecast for an isolated severe threat, but some uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of any threat. The front is forecast to move southward into the Gulf Coast states on Friday. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front from east Texas into Louisiana, where an isolated severe threat could again develop during the afternoon. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively weak, would should keep any severe threat marginal. Further northwest on Friday, an axis of instability is forecast across the southern and central High Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near this axis from late afternoon into the evening. This same potential will be possible on Saturday as the instability axis remains in place across the southern and central High Plains. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for a marginal severe threat both on Friday and Saturday. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the southern and central Plains. In the wake of this feature, scattered thunderstorms could develop across the High Plains near a north-to-south axis of instability. A marginal severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening, but deep-layer shear is forecast remain relatively weak. This should be a limiting factor concerning any severe potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. for Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to be maintained over much of the eastern half of the nation on Wednesday, as a shortwave ridge stays in place over the southern and central Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain centered on the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the western periphery of this post-frontal airmass, low-level moisture return is forecast over the southern plains on Wednesday. An axis of instability appears likely to develop by late afternoon along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture from western Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. As an 850 mb jet strengthens during the evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near this instability axis eastward across parts of central and eastern Kansas. It appears this convection will remain non-severe, and may be primarily elevated in nature. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. for Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to be maintained over much of the eastern half of the nation on Wednesday, as a shortwave ridge stays in place over the southern and central Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain centered on the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the western periphery of this post-frontal airmass, low-level moisture return is forecast over the southern plains on Wednesday. An axis of instability appears likely to develop by late afternoon along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture from western Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. As an 850 mb jet strengthens during the evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near this instability axis eastward across parts of central and eastern Kansas. It appears this convection will remain non-severe, and may be primarily elevated in nature. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. for Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to be maintained over much of the eastern half of the nation on Wednesday, as a shortwave ridge stays in place over the southern and central Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain centered on the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the western periphery of this post-frontal airmass, low-level moisture return is forecast over the southern plains on Wednesday. An axis of instability appears likely to develop by late afternoon along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture from western Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. As an 850 mb jet strengthens during the evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near this instability axis eastward across parts of central and eastern Kansas. It appears this convection will remain non-severe, and may be primarily elevated in nature. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered on the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture atop a warm/dry boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the Northwest -- with a focus over the higher terrain. Over the Cascades, PW values of 0.70-0.90 inches will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Thunderstorm potential is more uncertain over the WA Cascades owing to limited monsoonal moisture compared to areas farther south. Nevertheless, any storms that do form will be dry and pose a risk of new starts. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across northern CA, though recent rainfall and 1+ inch PW cast uncertainty on overall ignition potential. For central ID into southwest MT, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may pose a short-term risk of lightning-induced ignitions; however, increasing rainfall in the coming days should limit the overall risk. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered on the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture atop a warm/dry boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the Northwest -- with a focus over the higher terrain. Over the Cascades, PW values of 0.70-0.90 inches will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Thunderstorm potential is more uncertain over the WA Cascades owing to limited monsoonal moisture compared to areas farther south. Nevertheless, any storms that do form will be dry and pose a risk of new starts. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across northern CA, though recent rainfall and 1+ inch PW cast uncertainty on overall ignition potential. For central ID into southwest MT, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may pose a short-term risk of lightning-induced ignitions; however, increasing rainfall in the coming days should limit the overall risk. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered on the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture atop a warm/dry boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the Northwest -- with a focus over the higher terrain. Over the Cascades, PW values of 0.70-0.90 inches will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Thunderstorm potential is more uncertain over the WA Cascades owing to limited monsoonal moisture compared to areas farther south. Nevertheless, any storms that do form will be dry and pose a risk of new starts. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across northern CA, though recent rainfall and 1+ inch PW cast uncertainty on overall ignition potential. For central ID into southwest MT, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may pose a short-term risk of lightning-induced ignitions; however, increasing rainfall in the coming days should limit the overall risk. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more