Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered on the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture atop a warm/dry boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the Northwest -- with a focus over the higher terrain. Over the Cascades, PW values of 0.70-0.90 inches will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Thunderstorm potential is more uncertain over the WA Cascades owing to limited monsoonal moisture compared to areas farther south. Nevertheless, any storms that do form will be dry and pose a risk of new starts. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across northern CA, though recent rainfall and 1+ inch PW cast uncertainty on overall ignition potential. For central ID into southwest MT, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may pose a short-term risk of lightning-induced ignitions; however, increasing rainfall in the coming days should limit the overall risk. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting the severe potential will be limited. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting the severe potential will be limited. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting the severe potential will be limited. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting the severe potential will be limited. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward through the evening. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward through the evening. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward through the evening. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward through the evening. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025 Read more

MD 2013 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603... FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603... Valid 250218Z - 250315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603 continues. SUMMARY...A localized risk of severe hail and wind continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603 in the eastern Texas Panhandle. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KAMA shows ongoing convection moving southward across the eastern TX Panhandle, including one discrete supercell moving across Gray/Donley Counties. This storm is approaching the southern edge of a weakly unstable air mass, where around 30 kt of effective shear will continue to promote a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts in the near term. However, given limited residence time in the surface-based buoyancy and a gradual increase in nocturnal PBL static stability, the severe risk should gradually decrease over the next couple hours, and a downstream watch is not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34630041 34800111 35200116 35400082 35490039 35349993 35009982 34769997 34630041 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO 25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK. ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO 25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK. ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO 25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK. ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 603 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 250020Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 603 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 720 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Eastern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday evening from 720 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) and large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) through the mid evening hours. Additional storm development is possible over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this evening. These potential additional storms may yield a risk for large hail and severe gusts as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to 25 miles west of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 34025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD TO 25 NW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD TO 25 NW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD TO 25 NW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 602 SEVERE TSTM CO 242055Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter as they move slowly south-southeastward across parts of eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Pueblo CO to 35 miles south southeast of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35020. ...Gleason Read more

MD 2012 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602... FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2012 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602... Valid 250007Z - 250130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 in southeast and east-central Colorado. DISCUSSION...A couple semi-discrete storms are evolving slowly southward along outflow boundaries in east-central and southeastern CO. Warm/moist inflow for these storms (lower 60s dewpoints) and around 40 kt of effective shear should continue to favor transient supercell structures for the next couple hours -- prior to the onset of nocturnal static stability. The stronger/longer-lived storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37630238 37690315 38290419 38930444 39300417 39320387 38460221 37940195 37630238 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 2011 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2011 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle and far western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242346Z - 250115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible for the next couple hours. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A couple of discrete storms have recently intensified along a north/south-oriented surface boundary extending across the far eastern TX Panhandle, while a separate storm cluster has been evolving along an antecedent outflow boundary in northwest OK. Ahead of these storms, a warm/moist PBL (lower 60s dewpoints) and modest midlevel lapse rates are yielding weak surface-based buoyancy. However, around 40 kt of effective shear should continue to favor supercell structure, with a risk of isolated large to very large hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk should persist for another couple hours, prior to increasing nocturnal static stability. Given the potentially limited spatiotemporal nature of the threat, it is unclear if a watch is needed, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Smith.. 08/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34739996 34810055 35040084 35390102 35970101 36440052 36520027 36429967 36129890 35569873 35169881 34839925 34739996 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more