Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 29 22:21:01 UTC 2023.

MD 2205 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN...FAR EASTERN SD/NORTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 2205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Areas affected...portions of southern and central MN...far eastern SD/northwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292214Z - 300015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and or damaging wind gusts are possible with scattered storms along a frontal zone this afternoon/evening. Storm organization and coverage should remain below the need for a weather watch. DISCUSSION...Across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest, scattered thunderstorms have slowly intensified along a frontal zone across parts of southwest MN and far eastern SD. Along and south of the front, surface temperatures in the 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s were supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. However, much of the warm sector remains capped in the lower levels. So far, storm development has been focused along and immediately north of the warm front where overrunning and mid-level warm advection are supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE. While not overly large, the forcing along the front, moderate buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will likely continue to support a few strong updrafts into this evening. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts may favor some storm organization into multicell clusters of elevated supercell structures. Given the storm mode and potential for some organization the primary risk will be for isolated hail and or damaging winds with the strongest storms. Storm coverage and organization are expected to remain relatively limited with the majority of storms staying elevated along and north of the front. Thus, a weather watch appears unlikely though convective trends will be monitored. ..Lyons/Hart.. 09/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43979448 43649526 43029606 42839651 42889682 43069688 43479679 43899673 44199666 45059631 45589512 45769399 45639324 45329297 45129312 44639350 43979448 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad and strong upper-level trough will be positioned over the Great Basin this weekend into early next week. This trough will eventually eject into the central/southern Plains by Tuesday into Wednesday. As it progresses east, a cold front will move southeastward through much of the Plains and eventually into the East by the end of next week. Cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected with the front. Fire weather concerns will exist in parts of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico this Sunday. The upper-level trough will not make much eastward progress from Saturday. Winds may be a touch lighter on Sunday as compared to Saturday as the surface low will be positioned farther northeast of the region. How broadly critical RH will be observed is also uncertain, but at least pockets of critical fire weather appear possible. Dry and breezy conditions will likely persist into Monday across the same areas. However, RH reductions become less certain as some upper-level cloud cover is possible and temperatures may be slightly cooler. Areas of breezy conditions are also possible within the Plains as the trough approaches. RH reductions over most areas do not look overly favorable for fire weather concerns. Furthermore, the chance for precipitation will be on the increase as well. By Wednesday, the cold front will be into the southern Plains and cooler temperatures will further mitigate fire weather concerns. ..Wendt.. 09/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and locally damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest between about 6 PM to 2 AM CDT. ...20Z Update... ...Far Northeast NE to East-Central MN... Overall scenario outlined in the previous discussion remains. Isolated surface-based thunderstorm development is still possible along the cold front pushing southeastward across eastern SD and NE. However, greater thunderstorms potential exists later this evening and overnight as a strengthening low-level jet fosters isentropic ascent along the frontal zone. Weak deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity and duration, but isolated instance of hail are possible within the first few hours of development. ..Mosier.. 09/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023/ ...Northeast NE to east-central MN... Primary categorical change with this outlook is to reorient the spatial extent of the expected threat in the wake of this morning's storms amid above-average consistency in 12Z CAM guidance. Gradual mid-level height rises are expected across the region as a shortwave trough progresses northeast from the Upper Red River Valley across northern ON. Differential boundary-layer heating will reinforce the southwest to northeast baroclinic zone from northeast NE/southeast SD through east-central MN. A storm or two might develop along the southwest flank of this corridor in the early evening where MLCIN is minimized with a conditional threat of marginal severe wind gusts. The more probable scenario is for slightly elevated thunderstorm development to occur after sunset from southwest to east-central MN on the nose of a strengthening low-level jet. Low-level hodographs will favor updraft rotation with initial storms, but a decrease in winds with height along with some reduction in steep lapse rates owing to slow mid-level warming should temper hail magnitudes beyond golf ball size. The longevity of the isolated large hail threat should also be curtailed to around 3-4 hours as storm mode becomes dominated by clusters and instability/buoyancy wanes overnight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CO EASTERN UT AND SOUTHERN WY... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 09/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... The deepening trough over the western CONUS is forecast to continue to strengthen as it overspreads strong mid-level flow across the Great Basin and western Rockies. Enhanced surface winds are likely from NM to WY, along with dry and warm surface conditions. Several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Western Slope... The upper trough over the western US is forecast to deepen significantly D2/Sat with strong south/southwesterly flow likely over the Rockies. A deepening surface low over the Great Basin, and the increase in mid-level winds will bolster surface winds to 25-30 mph through the afternoon across portions of western CO and southern WY. Along with a moderately strong wind field, dry downslope flow and warm surface temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-20%. The best overlap of critical humidity and surface winds appears to be across parts of western CO coincident with the most receptive fuels. Thus, several hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely D2/Sat afternoon and evening. Though not as strong, gusty surface winds and low humidity are also likely over parts of the Four Corners into western NM. Deep mixing and warm surface temperatures will favor afternoon RH values below 20% within relatively dry fuels. Widespread elevated to locally critical conditions appear possible over parts of NM and AZ. ...High Plains... To the east across the central High Plains, gusty southerly winds of 15-20 mph and afternoon humidity below 25% are possible D2/Sat. While forecast confidence is relatively low given various model differences, a few hours of dry and breezy conditions may support locally elevated fire concerns across parts of eastern CO and far western KS where fuels remain relatively dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 28 23:16:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 28 23:16:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move slowly eastward over the western CONUS on Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday. Preceding this feature, a belt of strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry air mass from parts of the Southwest into the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. Ample boundary-layer mixing into the strong deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening surface pressure gradient, will yield an expansive area of 20-25+ mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH over the aforementioned areas on Day 3/Saturday. Strong surface winds will persist across the same areas on Day 4/Sunday (with a slight eastward shift in the strongest winds), though substantial RH reductions will generally be confined to portions of the Southwest. Widespread elevated to locally critical conditions are expected for both days, with the primary limiting factor being marginally receptive fuels where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected. Father east, persistent lee troughing will favor breezy southerly surface winds over portions of the central and southern Plains each day. Along the western edge of the richer boundary-layer moisture return, a slim overlap of the strong winds and low RH is possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains. However, the potential for critical conditions appears too low for probabilities at this time. ...Days 5-8/Monday-Thursday... The large-scale trough and related enhanced flow aloft will move gradually eastward across the central CONUS. Similar to Day 4/Sunday, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds (albeit slightly weaker) are expected over the central/southern Plains on Day 5/Monday, with similar uncertainties regarding RH reductions. Thereafter, a cold front and related precipitation should overspread the Great Plains, generally reducing the fire-weather risk across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 09/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Central and Southern Plains... An Elevated area was added from parts of west-central KS south-southwestward into portions of northeast NM. From KS into northwest OK, 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph) will primarily support a wind-driven fire risk given marginal RH reductions (25-30 percent) along the western edge of the more-substantial boundary-layer moisture return. Given the strong/gusty winds, lower to middle 90s temperatures, and somewhat marginal RH/fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. From portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into northeast NM, the combination of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds will also favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of southern WY into adjacent areas of UT and CO Friday afternoon. Early-morning water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific depicts two shortwave impulses embedded within the mean northwesterly flow. The second of these is expected to amplify over the next 48 hours along the West Coast, resulting in strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow from the lower CO River Valley into the central Rockies. This flow regime will also maintain dry conditions across the Great Basin. Consequently, dry and windy conditions are forecast across a large swath of the Great Basin Friday afternoon. Recent ensemble guidance suggests elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are probable, but may be patchy in nature across the region. This, combined with generally unreceptive fuels for most locations, limits confidence in the coverage of the fire weather threat. However, portions of southern WY, northeast UT, and northwest CO should see favorable overlap of elevated conditions with dry fuels - especially after several previous days of similarly dry/windy weather. Elsewhere, windy conditions are expected across KS and southern NE as a lee trough continues to strengthen. While 20+ mph winds are expected, confidence in sub-25% RH is limited due to persistent moisture advection from the south. Trends will continue to be monitored for fuel dryness and the quality of moisture return. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast reasoning remains unchanged, and the only change made to the previous outlook was expanding general thunder northwestward across Far West TX. A strong storm or two remains possible across western KY/TN this afternoon and evening, but generally weak shear and warm temperatures aloft should keep the overall severe potential low. Small hail also remain possible late tonight/early Friday from eastern SD into southwest MN. Marginal environmental conditions should keep the potential for severe hail low. ..Mosier.. 09/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023/ ...Kentucky/Tennessee... A relatively small cluster of thunderstorms continues to persist southeastward along the western Kentucky/Tennessee border vicinity late this morning. These storms, and the frontal zone just to the north, regionally reside on the southwest periphery of an upper low centered near Lower Michigan, within a cyclonically curved belt of moderately strong mid-level westerlies. The midday-ongoing storms do not appear likely to produce severe weather, although some strong storms could redevelop later this afternoon in the same general vicinity across western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. This will be as the synoptic front stalls or moves slightly southward, with outflows/differential heating on the western edge of persistent early day convection also factors. While a narrow zone of moderate instability will exist in this corridor later today, mid-level height rises are expected and effective shear should generally remain 30 kt or less. While a locally severe storm or two cannot be conclusively ruled out late this afternoon/early evening, the potential for organized/sustained storms is currently expected to remain low. ...Eastern SD/far southeast ND and southwest/south-central MN... Late tonight, low-level warm advection is expected to increase across the region, largely in response to an approaching shortwave trough. As a low-level jet strengthens into the region, elevated convection is expected to develop after midnight. Forecast soundings late tonight/early Friday suggest that some potentially strong elevated updrafts are plausible. Small hail could occur, but the potential for 1-inch (or greater) hailstones should remain low. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 27 23:45:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 2202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Areas affected...Southern Illinois and southern Indiana into Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272343Z - 280145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southern Illinois are expected to intensify as they migrate east into the Ohio River Valley. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with the more intense cells, but thunderstorm coverage and mode remains uncertain. Trends will be monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a few transient attempts at convective initiation have been noted across southern IL ahead of a subtle mid-level impulse and in the vicinity of a decaying surface low. Additional attempts at CI are expected over the coming hours as isentropic ascent increases over a warm front draped from southern IL into the OH River Valley. Temperatures across the warm sector - which is bound to the east by a residual outflow boundary - have begun falling with the onset of nocturnal cooling. MLCAPE values have been falling due to this cooling, but MUCAPE values should remain near 1000 J/kg as saturation of the surface-850 mb layer increases. Additionally, weak south/southeasterly flow across the region with 30-35 knot flow aloft is supporting somewhat elongated hodographs with effective bulk shear values near 30-35 knots. Some veering in the lowest 1 km is noted in regional VWPs, which is supporting effective SRH values around 100-150 J/kg. This environment is favorable for organized convection, including the potential for a few supercells. However, several modulating factors are noted. Deep-layer shear and storm motion vectors are forecast to be largely oriented along the warm front, which should favor a tendency for upscale growth. These factors may be offset by the isolated nature of storms given the relatively weak ascent over the region, so storm mode remains somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the noted nocturnal cooling may hinder the potential for surface-based convection, limiting the tornado potential and favor large hail and severe winds as the primary hazards. Trends will continue to be monitored for the needed for a watch issuance, which may be conditional on storm coverage and organization. ..Moore/Hart.. 09/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38548523 38288487 37848482 37288516 36898588 36758649 37068764 37328846 37548904 37848943 38288944 38688888 38758804 38768588 38548523 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 27 22:34:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire concerns will remain low through the extended period. The upper-level pattern will remain fairly persistent through much of the period, with troughing across the western US and ridging across the central/eastern US. The increased pressure gradient and flow aloft between these two features will keep winds breezy across the Southwest into Great Basin and across the Central Plains. Cooler temperatures, fuels near seasonal averages, and potential for precipitation will help temper fire spread potential across much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Little to no rainfall is forecast across portions of southern Arizona and western New Mexico. Periods of Elevated fire weather may be possible. Fuels within this region are near seasonal normal but multiple days of windy/dry conditions will likely lead to drying fuels. This trend will be monitored with potential for highlights in the coming days. Across the Central Plains, westerly flow across the Rockies will support strengthening lee troughing and periods of increased south to southwesterly flow across the central high plains. Relative humidity is forecast to remain above Critical thresholds, though spotty Elevated to near Critical conditions will be possible on D3 - Friday and D4 - Saturday across western Kansas/eastern Colorado. Late in the period by D8 - Wednesday, the western trough may eject eastward into the Plains. Model spread in where the surface low will develop leads to low confidence in where any windy/dry conditions will overlap. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire concerns will remain low through the extended period. The upper-level pattern will remain fairly persistent through much of the period, with troughing across the western US and ridging across the central/eastern US. The increased pressure gradient and flow aloft between these two features will keep winds breezy across the Southwest into Great Basin and across the Central Plains. Cooler temperatures, fuels near seasonal averages, and potential for precipitation will help temper fire spread potential across much of the Southwest and Great Basin. Little to no rainfall is forecast across portions of southern Arizona and western New Mexico. Periods of Elevated fire weather may be possible. Fuels within this region are near seasonal normal but multiple days of windy/dry conditions will likely lead to drying fuels. This trend will be monitored with potential for highlights in the coming days. Across the Central Plains, westerly flow across the Rockies will support strengthening lee troughing and periods of increased south to southwesterly flow across the central high plains. Relative humidity is forecast to remain above Critical thresholds, though spotty Elevated to near Critical conditions will be possible on D3 - Friday and D4 - Saturday across western Kansas/eastern Colorado. Late in the period by D8 - Wednesday, the western trough may eject eastward into the Plains. Model spread in where the surface low will develop leads to low confidence in where any windy/dry conditions will overlap. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight, and pose some risk for severe weather. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley... Modest destabilization is still anticipated in the wake of early showers and thunderstorms (and associated cloud cover) ahead of a weakly convergence frontal zone. Thunderstorms are still expected along this frontal zone later this evening. Cold mid-level temperatures will foster moderate buoyancy amid generally weak to moderate vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, but a supercell or two is possible as well. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low over the Midwest (temperatures still around -16C at 500 mb) will drift eastward over northern portions of Illinois/Indiana and southern Lake Michigan through tonight, with moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies influencing the lower Ohio Valley into Tennessee Valley. Moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg, is expected this afternoon near/south of the synoptic front and weak surface low, particularly to the west of decaying thunderstorm clusters and cloud cover that persist late this morning near/south of the Ohio River. Renewed thunderstorm development/intensification may occur across east-central Kentucky Bluegrass into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by mid-afternoon. A couple of stronger cells may be accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts, before the storms spread into a more stable environment toward the mountains. Farther west/northwest is where somewhat more substantive boundary-layer destabilization is expected across southern portions of Illinois/Indiana into west-central Kentucky, with storms expected to increase by late afternoon and early evening. A few transient supercells could occur, but multicellular clusters capable of hail/wind are otherwise probable, potentially including some semi-organized clusters this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon into tonight, and pose some risk for severe weather. ...20Z Update... ...Lower Ohio Valley... Modest destabilization is still anticipated in the wake of early showers and thunderstorms (and associated cloud cover) ahead of a weakly convergence frontal zone. Thunderstorms are still expected along this frontal zone later this evening. Cold mid-level temperatures will foster moderate buoyancy amid generally weak to moderate vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, but a supercell or two is possible as well. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Lower Ohio Valley... An upper low over the Midwest (temperatures still around -16C at 500 mb) will drift eastward over northern portions of Illinois/Indiana and southern Lake Michigan through tonight, with moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies influencing the lower Ohio Valley into Tennessee Valley. Moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg, is expected this afternoon near/south of the synoptic front and weak surface low, particularly to the west of decaying thunderstorm clusters and cloud cover that persist late this morning near/south of the Ohio River. Renewed thunderstorm development/intensification may occur across east-central Kentucky Bluegrass into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by mid-afternoon. A couple of stronger cells may be accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts, before the storms spread into a more stable environment toward the mountains. Farther west/northwest is where somewhat more substantive boundary-layer destabilization is expected across southern portions of Illinois/Indiana into west-central Kentucky, with storms expected to increase by late afternoon and early evening. A few transient supercells could occur, but multicellular clusters capable of hail/wind are otherwise probable, potentially including some semi-organized clusters this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated delineation was added across western Kansas/eastern Colorado in anticipation of increasing southerly flow amid dry conditions. HREF probabilities indicate 70-90 percent of meeting Elevated criteria across the Kansas/Colorado border. Coordination with local partners indicates fuels within this region have experienced drying due to rainfall deficits over the last few weeks. See previous discussion for more information concerning Elevated concerns across southern WY and northwest CO. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday across portions of southern WY and into far northwest CO. The progression of the upper wave over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen lee troughing over the northern and central High Plains over the next 48 hours. As a result, low to mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. With a dry air mass expected to already be in place by Thursday afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are expected from northern AZ into UT, western CO, and southern WY. However, fuels across most of this region are not receptive outside of southern WY and adjacent portions of northwest CO where 30-day rainfall deficits and ERC values near the 80th percentile are noted in recent analyses. ...Western Kansas... Drier, windier deterministic solutions hint at the potential for elevated conditions across western KS Thursday afternoon. Fuels over northwest KS appear to be receptive after little rainfall over the past 30 days, and may support a fire concern. However, confidence in substantial overlap of these dry fuels with sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains limited due to spread in ensemble guidance and a noted dry bias in the upstream air mass over the southern High Plains noted in some model runs. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z An Elevated delineation was added across western Kansas/eastern Colorado in anticipation of increasing southerly flow amid dry conditions. HREF probabilities indicate 70-90 percent of meeting Elevated criteria across the Kansas/Colorado border. Coordination with local partners indicates fuels within this region have experienced drying due to rainfall deficits over the last few weeks. See previous discussion for more information concerning Elevated concerns across southern WY and northwest CO. ..Thornton.. 09/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Sep 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday across portions of southern WY and into far northwest CO. The progression of the upper wave over the Pacific Northwest will strengthen lee troughing over the northern and central High Plains over the next 48 hours. As a result, low to mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen across the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. With a dry air mass expected to already be in place by Thursday afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are expected from northern AZ into UT, western CO, and southern WY. However, fuels across most of this region are not receptive outside of southern WY and adjacent portions of northwest CO where 30-day rainfall deficits and ERC values near the 80th percentile are noted in recent analyses. ...Western Kansas... Drier, windier deterministic solutions hint at the potential for elevated conditions across western KS Thursday afternoon. Fuels over northwest KS appear to be receptive after little rainfall over the past 30 days, and may support a fire concern. However, confidence in substantial overlap of these dry fuels with sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains limited due to spread in ensemble guidance and a noted dry bias in the upstream air mass over the southern High Plains noted in some model runs. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 26 22:23:01 UTC 2023.