Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two exceptions: 1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder. Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability, organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to justify a categorical area at this time. 2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf. This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today, crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter. Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone (surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican EML previously over the region having advected away. Still, midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential meager at most. ..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more