Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A strong mid-level trough will move from the Plains to the Great Lakes later this week and amplify into a large trough across the eastern CONUS this weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding trough location and phasing, but a strong surface low may be possible near the Northeast this weekend. This should result in some dry and breezy conditions across much of the eastern CONUS later this week and this weekend, but temperatures should be cool, much of this area will see precipitation later this week, and fuels are moist. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Much of the extended period will be dry across the Southwest and southern Plains. Therefore, fuels are expected to dry, and with cooler temperature starting to arrive, finer fuels may start to become dormant in some areas. Therefore, there may be at least somewhat receptive fuels when the next mid-level trough crosses the Southwest early next week. This trough is expected to bring low-elevation rain and mountain snow, but there may be a period in the 12 to 24 hours ahead of trough arrival where there may be some increased fire weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 16 00:57:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 16 00:57:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... With a surface cold front now clearing the far southeastern tip of Florida (southeastern Dade County) and the Keys, and thunder potential overnight will remain offshore. Elsewhere, with dry/stable air spilling across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. and a ridge prevailing over the West, no thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the period. ..Goss.. 10/16/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the top of a mid-level ridge across the northern Rockies on Tuesday and amplify as it moves southeast into the eastern CONUS for the end of the week. As this occurs, an area of surface low-pressure will develop across the Plains and eventually move into the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions will accompany this surface low, but relatively cool temperatures should keep relative humidity somewhat higher. Fuels remain moist across much of the CONUS, particularly where the dry and breezy conditions will be present. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal for the extended period. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 15 00:48:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 15 00:48:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather threat has ended over the eastern North Carolina vicinty. Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. through the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... A surface low now in the vicinity of southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay will move offshore this evening, as mid-level short-wave troughing continues to move eastward across the central Appalachians. Earlier warm-sector convection over far eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks has moved offshore, and with it, any potential for stronger storms. As such, MRGL risk is being removed from the outlook at this time. A few lightning strikes will remain possible, however, across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region through this evening. Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms may persist this evening over South Florida, while lightning is not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through 15/12Z. ..Goss.. 10/15/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The beginning of the extended forecast period will feature a large high pressure center across the Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest on Monday will traverse the top of the ridge across the northern Rockies and amplify as it moves southeast into the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, an area of surface low-pressure will develop across the Plains and eventually move into the eastern CONUS. Breezy conditions will accompany this surface low, but relatively cool temperatures should keep relative humidity somewhat higher. Fuels remain moist across much of the CONUS, particularly where the dry and breezy conditions will be present. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal for the extended period. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 14 00:43:01 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 14 00:43:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm risk has diminished in the Mid-Mississippi Valley area. Severe weather will remain unlikely through the rest of the period. ...Discussion... Convection ongoing across parts of Iowa and Illinois continues to weaken this evening, as nocturnal cooling continues to yield steadily decreasing instability. This has resulted in a cessation of appreciable severe potential. Occasional lightning will be possible across the Midwest/Ohio Valley as the storm system associated with the convective activity advances eastward. A few thunderstorms across Deep South Texas, and southern Florida, may persist through the evening and into the overnight, while a few storms may develop later over portions of eastern South Carolina and vicinity. However, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/14/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Surface high pressure will dominate the United States early next week as a cool, continental airmass is in place across much of the CONUS. Lee troughing may return by the middle of the week and bring some dry and breezy conditions to the Plains and vicinity. However, relative humidity is not expected to be that low, and these breezy conditions are anticipated where fuels are currently moist and should remain so. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal through next week. ..Bentley.. 10/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Nebraska. ...Central Plains... An upper low will continue to move slowly east across NE through tonight, with a 70-80 kt midlevel jet pushing east into IA and northern MO. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves east across the same areas. Storms have generally decreased in intensity this evening due to the cooling air mass, except for farther south into east-central KS in closer proximity to the surface warm plume. 00Z soundings downstream indicate minimal instability overall, with little additional destabilization expected as a cooling boundary layer counteracts any cooling aloft. Shear will remain strong over northern areas, but waning instability should limit the overall severe risk. As such, a Marginal Risk will remain over the area for sporadic hail in the stronger cells. ..Jewell.. 10/13/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 13 00:53:01 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 12 01:53:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2239 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Areas affected...portions of northern and central Nebraska...southeastern South Dakota and west central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120150Z - 120415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing low-level warm advection may support additional thunderstorms capable of isolated hail this evening. Confidence in storm coverage and severity is low and a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 0140 UTC, regional IR satellite imagery showed cooling cloud tops along a band of convection across portions of the central Plains. Located along and north of a warm front emanating from a deepening lee low over eastern CO, convection is expected to continue to slowly deepen and increase in coverage near the frontal corridor through this evening and into the overnight hours. Area VADs and surface obs show low-level mass response ahead of the deepening low, along with a moderately strong low-level jet. Favored by the uptick in low and mid-level warm advection, forcing for ascent should continue to build this evening supporting additional storm development. While not overly robust, sufficient buoyancy (~500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) along the warm front should support a few stronger updrafts. Bolstered by a band of westerly mid-level flow associated with the deepening low, 30-40 kt effective shear may also support some organization of these updrafts into sustained multicells or transient supercell structures. Generally north of the surface warm front and with nocturnal cooling ongoing at the surface, storms should remain elevated with the main risk being isolated hail with the more sustained/robust updrafts. Hi-res guidance varies on the degree of storm coverage/intensity through this evening, casting uncertainty on how widespread any severe risk will be. However, current radar and observational trends do suggest a few stronger storms with hail potential may evolve over north-central NE and spread into portions of southern SD and western IA tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41389491 41249657 41279934 41540048 41580061 42210136 43050101 43280048 43629845 43569762 43369652 43139586 42669435 42249336 41639310 41429388 41389491 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 12 00:52:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight over the western Florida Peninsula/coastal-bend region. Strong to severe thunderstorms over the central Plains and Midwest may be capable of marginal hail through late tonight. ...Much of the western FL Peninsula to the coastal FL Panhandle... A front currently extends across north-central FL, with cool and relatively stable air to the north. The 00Z JAX sounding shows poor lapse rates and no instability within this air mass. The TLH exhibits similar characteristics, north of the boundary. South of these areas, and where winds have a southerly component, upper 70s F dewpoints are contributing to modest instability, ahead of the developing areas of storms over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear profiles are strengthening across the entire area in anticipation of the approaching convectively enhanced low, and a few supercells perhaps with tornado risk will conditionally be possible with any storms that move ashore. This appears most likely late tonight from the Coastal Bend southeastward toward the Tampa Bay area as stronger instability develops with time. ...From NE into northern IL... The 00Z LBF sounding shows nearly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE present, with steep lapse rates aloft. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms currently extend from the western Panhandle into northeast CO. As the surface low deepens and low-level theta-e advection persists with backed boundary-layer winds, conditions should remain favorable for scattered storms to develop, with some likely producing hail. Large-scale ascent will remain favorable, with increasing storm coverage likely later this evening. Effective shear appears to further favor cellular storm modes which will be favorable for hail. Isolated strong gusts may also occur in proximity to the warm surface air near the warm front. ..Jewell.. 10/12/2023 Read more