Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. An initial upper trough over the eastern U.S. will quickly shift northeast over the Atlantic on Day 4/Wed. At the same time, a series of upper shortwave impulses will migrate through northwesterly flow from the Pacific Northwest to the central/southern Plains before consolidating and pivoting east across the rest of the CONUS Days 6-8/Fri-Sun. As the western upper shortwave trough ejects east, surface low pressure will develop over the central/southern High Plains on Day 3/Wed before developing east across the southern tier of the U.S. through Day 6/Fri. This will allow for some modest Gulf moisture return ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. However, it appears higher-quality moisture and better instability will remain offshore, limiting severe potential. Nevertheless, thunderstorm chances will be possible across much of the Gulf coast vicinity Days 5-6/Thu-Fri. In the wake of the cold front, strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains and shift east across the eastern U.S. on Days 6-8/Fri-Sun, diminishing thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within this larger-scale trough will eject east/southeast from the central/southern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a coastal low near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning will lift northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern U.S., extending across southern FL by the end of the period. A moist airmass will be in place across FL ahead of the front. While this will contribute to some weak instability, lapse rates will remain poor. Furthermore, any stronger large-scale ascent will be displaced north of better boundary-layer moisture. While effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt typically would support organized thunderstorms, displaced large-scale ascent with a poorly timed frontal intrusion into the FL Peninsula will preclude severe potential. Elsewhere, a cold and stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm potential across much of the rest of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within this larger-scale trough will eject east/southeast from the central/southern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a coastal low near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning will lift northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern U.S., extending across southern FL by the end of the period. A moist airmass will be in place across FL ahead of the front. While this will contribute to some weak instability, lapse rates will remain poor. Furthermore, any stronger large-scale ascent will be displaced north of better boundary-layer moisture. While effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt typically would support organized thunderstorms, displaced large-scale ascent with a poorly timed frontal intrusion into the FL Peninsula will preclude severe potential. Elsewhere, a cold and stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm potential across much of the rest of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within this larger-scale trough will eject east/southeast from the central/southern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a coastal low near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning will lift northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern U.S., extending across southern FL by the end of the period. A moist airmass will be in place across FL ahead of the front. While this will contribute to some weak instability, lapse rates will remain poor. Furthermore, any stronger large-scale ascent will be displaced north of better boundary-layer moisture. While effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt typically would support organized thunderstorms, displaced large-scale ascent with a poorly timed frontal intrusion into the FL Peninsula will preclude severe potential. Elsewhere, a cold and stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm potential across much of the rest of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within this larger-scale trough will eject east/southeast from the central/southern High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic coastal vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, a coastal low near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning will lift northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern U.S., extending across southern FL by the end of the period. A moist airmass will be in place across FL ahead of the front. While this will contribute to some weak instability, lapse rates will remain poor. Furthermore, any stronger large-scale ascent will be displaced north of better boundary-layer moisture. While effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt typically would support organized thunderstorms, displaced large-scale ascent with a poorly timed frontal intrusion into the FL Peninsula will preclude severe potential. Elsewhere, a cold and stable boundary layer will preclude thunderstorm potential across much of the rest of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An arctic airmass on Monday will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the country. The exception will be across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints in the 60s ahead of a southward-sagging cold front will be in place over central/southern FL. Warm midlevel temperatures through much of the daytime hours will limit thunderstorm activity via poor lapse rates and capping. However, warm advection ahead of the front will continue through the nighttime hours, while a surface low begins to deepen off the northeast FL, GA and SC coasts late in the period. Modest midlevel cooling also will occur overnight, and at least minor ascent associated with a weak shortwave impulse may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms during the evening and nighttime hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Monday. ..Weinman.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more