Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the mid-Atlantic/northeast thunder area, otherwise no changes were made with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 10/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected across most of the CONUS today, with only a few small areas of apparent risk for thunderstorms. These include beneath a cold upper low over the Northeast states, and beneath an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms in both regions today. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Broad mid-upper troughing will persist across the eastern United States through the middle of next week. This pattern will favor deep-layer northwesterly flow across much of the Central United States, ushering in cooler, drier conditions. By mid-to-late week another mid-upper-level trough will move through the West and amplify across the Rocky Mountains. Guidance suggests that dry and windy conditions will develop across portions of the West into the southern Plains as the tough amplifies mid-to-late week. However, at this point, fuel moisture should remain high enough that large-scale fire-weather concerns look to be low. This will continued to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 6 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 6 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts may occur this afternoon in southwest Lower Michigan. No changes were made to the previous outlook. A low-end chance of convectively enhanced wind gusts remains over parts of western Lower MI over the next few hours as precipitation associated with the upper vort max shifts east. Modest heating and steepened lapse rates may aid convective gusts. ..Jewell.. 10/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023/ ...Southwest Lower MI... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the upper midwest digging into the western Great Lakes. This trough and its associated surface cold front will move across southern Lake Michigan this afternoon during the peak-heating period. Strong heating ahead of the front is leading to steep low-level lapse rates. CAPE values will be weak (less than 500 J/kg). However, given the favorable timing of the system, strong winds aloft, and steep low-level lapse rates, it appears possible that a few strong/severe wind gusts could occur with showers/thunderstorms along the coast of southwest Lower MI. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area for this scenario. Cold temperatures aloft and ambient vorticity near the upper trough could also result in isolated waterspouts in this area. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Broad upper troughing should persist across the eastern CONUS through early next week, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley, and overall cooler conditions from the OH Valley eastward. From mid to late next week, another mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and ejects into the Plains states, supporting surface cyclone development and a rapid return of low-level moisture from the central/southern Plains into the Southeast. Current medium range guidance consensus suggests that potentially dry and windy conditions may accompany the next amplifying mid-level trough across portions of the Interior West into the southern High Plains mid to late next week. However, fuel receptiveness is not overly robust at the moment, and questions remain whether this will change next week, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. Dry conditions should persist across the Southeast Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday. However, guidance shows a diffuse surface pressure gradient prior to surface cyclone arrival, resulting in a weak synoptic wind field, keeping wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 10/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The primary change made to this outlook was to expand the Elevated area farther northeast into eastern GA and northwestern SC. Here, the latest guidance consensus depicts up to 15 mph sustained northwesterly winds overlapping with 20-30 percent RH for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon behind the surface cold front. Fuels are also at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. There is some question regarding the robustness of wildfire-spread potential across portions of western into central LA, which has received 1-2 inches of rain within the past 48 hours. Still, the extent of the ongoing drought and rapid drying of finer grasses may still support appreciable fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 10/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough will shift slowly eastward from the Ohio Valley toward the Northeast, while an expansive surface anticyclone moves southward across the central/southern Plains -- in the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front over the Gulf of Mexico. ...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast... Along the southeastern periphery of the surface anticyclone, an enhanced pressure gradient will favor 10-15 mph sustained northerly surface winds across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast. These breezy post-frontal winds, combined with 25 percent minimum RH, will support elevated fire-weather conditions. While rainfall is expected across parts of the area on Day 1/Friday, ongoing severe to exceptional drought and 80th-90th percentile ERCs suggest fuels will still be receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 5 23:20:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 5 23:20:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather potential is expected to generally be low through the extended period with the exception of the Southeast region this weekend. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the weekend and into next week. The longwave trough currently over the central CONUS is forecast to shift east over the weekend and slowly deamplify over the Great Lakes through early next week. Upper ridging will remain in place across the western half of the country with a broad northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. This synoptic regime will favor cool, dry conditions east of the Rockies and warm conditions across the Southwest/West Coast. Fuels may undergo drying across the Southeast and Southwest where ensemble guidance shows low probability for substantial precipitation until the middle of next week. ...D3/Saturday - Southeast... Fire weather concerns may emerge across the Southeast states on D3/Saturday as a dry offshore flow regime becomes established behind a cold frontal passage on Friday. While some spread is noted in deterministic solutions, ensemble output hints at widespread gradient winds between 15-20 mph from southern MS to central GA. Additionally, a dry continental air mass advecting into the region should promote RH reductions into the 20s, resulting in areas of elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions. Confidence in such conditions is highest across southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, but may extend into much of AL, GA, and western MS based on a few drier/windier solutions. Recent fuel analyses place ERC values near the 80th to 90th percentile, suggesting fuels should support the fire weather concerns. ...D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday - Southwest and Southern High Plains... Most long-range solutions show a low-amplitude upper trough migrating into the Four Corners region by the middle of next week as the upper ridge breaks down. This will promote surface pressure falls across the Four Corners and central/southern High Plains D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday. Strengthening low-level flow coupled with antecedent dry conditions may support fire weather concerns on both of these days. However, considerable spread is noted in deterministic solutions regarding the placement and magnitude of the upper wave. Likewise, ensemble guidance shows only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions despite the generally favorable synoptic regime. This uncertainty, coupled with recent rainfall over the southern High Plains and much of the Rockies, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 10/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms appear unlikely through the remainder of the Day 1 period. An outflow-reinforced boundary continues to push rapidly southward across Deep South TX, near the US/MX border at 20Z. Given the very moist air mass across the region, elevated instability will continue to support scattered storms, but strong to severe gust potential will be reduced as the outflow undercuts the remaining areas of warmer surface air. As such, wind probabilities have been removed for the remainder of the period. Elsewhere, weak/shallow convection over the Upper Great Lakes region in association with cold air beneath the upper trough is forecast to dwindle with the loss of heating later this afternoon, and as cooler/drier air pushes in from the west. ..Jewell.. 10/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023/ ...Deep South TX... Convection has largely moved offshore this morning, but a slow-moving, small cluster persists over a portion of the Brush Country along a composite outflow-enhanced cold front moving south. Very rich western Gulf moisture characterized by 75-80 F surface dew points remains prevalent ahead of the front with ample insolation. This may support an uptick in thunderstorm intensity and coverage for a few hours centered on mid to late afternoon. While the combination of deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will remain modest, there will be potential for 45-60 mph gusts in a couple multicell clusters approaching the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Read more

MD 2234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Areas affected...portions of central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 050002Z - 050130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Several cluster of storms including a few supercells should continue east/southeast with a risk for damaging winds and hail. A new WW or local extensions of existing watches are being considered. DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central TX, ongoing convection has slowly grown upscale into a few, more defined clusters over the last couple of hours. Previous storms over OK and north TX have pushed an effective outflow boundary south of the Red River to just north of I-20. Along and south of the boundary, the air mass remains quite unstable (1500-2000 J/kg) of MLCAPE owing to the upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints. Area VADs also show the air mass remains moderately sheared, sufficient for organized severe storms. Given the recent upscale growth trends, further growth of the clusters is expected with time. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely severe threat given the potential for strong updrafts and the more linear structures. However, with some potential for supercells and the moderate buoyancy, isolated hail will also remain possible. The greatest severe risk appears to be focused along the I-20 corridor through the next several hours, though storms may eventually take on a more southeastward motion as outflow consolidates. Given the relatively pristine air mass ahead of the ongoing storms, severe potential should increase this evening. A new WW and/or extensions of the existing watches are being considered. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 32269983 32869876 33169793 33289654 33229577 32989546 32679529 32029536 31789652 31379960 31609986 31869994 32259990 32269983 Read more

WW 0703 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 703 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E HOB TO 20 NW LBB TO 5 SE SPS TO 40 SE FSI. ..THORNTON..10/04/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 703 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-077-107-125-169-263-269-275-303-305-433-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY CROSBY DICKENS GARZA KENT KING KNOX LUBBOCK LYNN STONEWALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 703 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 041820Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 703 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-central and southwest Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Several supercells will develop with a primary initial threat of very large hail. These cells should consolidate into an eastward-moving cluster towards early evening with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Lubbock TX to 15 miles north of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 704 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..10/04/23 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC033-043-059-081-103-105-115-135-151-173-207-227-235-253-317- 329-335-353-371-383-413-415-417-431-435-441-443-447-451-461- 050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN BREWSTER CALLAHAN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD IRION JONES MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TERRELL THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 704 SEVERE TSTM TX 041920Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest to west-central Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial supercell near Fort Stockton may persist for several hours while additional supercells form farther north-northeast across the Permian Basin. Very large hail will be the main threat initially, with severe wind gusts more likely as storms consolidate into eastward-moving clusters. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west of Dryden TX to 100 miles northeast of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SPS TO 20 SW ADM TO 30 NNE ADM TO 10 SSE CQB. ..THORNTON..10/04/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-023-061-069-077-085-091-095-101-107-111-121-127- 050040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW HASKELL JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA TXC085-097-119-121-147-181-223-231-237-277-337-497-503-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DELTA DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON HOPKINS HUNT JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE WISE YOUNG Read more

MD 2233 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...704... FOR NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Areas affected...Northwest/Southwest/West-Central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703...704... Valid 042306Z - 050100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703, 704 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for large to very large hail and damaging gusts will continue for at least the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Outflow-augmented cold front extending from far northwest TX into the Permian Basin continues to progress gradually southward/southeastward. Thunderstorms persist along this boundary, supported by ample buoyancy and low-level convergence. Given the abundance of storms and close storm proximity, a supercell-in-cluster storm mode currently prevails, with the strongest updrafts north of the composite outflow/cold front. Even with most storms north of the boundary, there does appear to be a more outflow-dominant structure to the pair of updrafts over Baylor and King Counties in northwest TX. Warm, moist, and buoyant conditions exists downstream of these updrafts, with steep low-level lapse rates in place as well. Development into an organized convective line appears probable, and the overall expectations is that some severe potential will persist for at least the next few hours into western portions of north TX. Further south and west into the Permian Basin and southwest TX, a more cellular storm mode dominants. Long hodographs have supported splitting supercells capable of large hail thus far, which should remain the primary risk for at least the next few hours. Strong gusts will also remain possible, particularly with the supercell currently in Scurry County. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30710294 31450255 32120218 32790225 33610239 33940206 33850058 34109902 34029846 33779814 33269826 32739886 31810005 30610058 29860184 29850254 30120305 30710294 Read more

WW 705 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 041945Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central and southeast Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few supercells should consolidate into an east-southeast moving MCS that spreads across parts of south Oklahoma and north Texas into this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Wichita Falls TX to 40 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703...WW 704... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Grams Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper trough/low will develop late this week across the upper Midwest and Northeast. In the West and High Plains, upper-level ridging will build. Surface high pressure will cover much of the CONUS behind a cold front through part of the upcoming weekend. Model guidance does show a trough approaching the Northwest by early next week, but the timing and evolution of this trough and associated surface features is uncertain. Surface high pressure into the Great Basin and Northwest will drive some dry offshore winds in parts of northern and southern California into the weekend. Given the state of fuels in these areas, only locally elevated conditions are expected. Some dry and windy conditions are also possible in the West as the trough moves into the interior, but, again, fuels are currently not receptive and are not expected to become critically dry in the near future. Depending on the evolution of the next trough early next week, some high pressure may build into the Northwest and Great Basin. Additional offshore winds would then be possible around the middle /end of next week in southern California. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance. ..Wendt.. 10/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more