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1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift
to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A
trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the
southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast
through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and
behind this front for today and tonight.
...Southern Florida...
A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front
this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have
been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been
relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a
combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing
forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far
and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through
the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated
showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early
Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less)
post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion.
..Moore.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift
to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A
trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the
southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast
through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and
behind this front for today and tonight.
...Southern Florida...
A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front
this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have
been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been
relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a
combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing
forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far
and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through
the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated
showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early
Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less)
post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion.
..Moore.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift
to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A
trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the
southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast
through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and
behind this front for today and tonight.
...Southern Florida...
A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front
this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have
been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been
relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a
combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing
forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far
and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through
the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated
showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early
Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less)
post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion.
..Moore.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift
to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A
trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the
southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast
through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and
behind this front for today and tonight.
...Southern Florida...
A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front
this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have
been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been
relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a
combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing
forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far
and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through
the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated
showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early
Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less)
post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion.
..Moore.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift
to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A
trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the
southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast
through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and
behind this front for today and tonight.
...Southern Florida...
A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front
this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have
been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been
relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a
combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing
forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far
and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through
the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated
showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early
Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less)
post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion.
..Moore.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft
covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer
cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should
eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller
cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT
-- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then
pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight,
while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions,
following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very
isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection
possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based
thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL.
...Central/south FL...
A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by
by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms.
Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula,
the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s
F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal
flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued
convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should
diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to
the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant,
and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized
cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional,
areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican
Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in
12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential
over southernmost FL and the Keys.
..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft
covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer
cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should
eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller
cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT
-- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then
pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight,
while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions,
following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very
isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection
possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based
thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL.
...Central/south FL...
A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by
by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms.
Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula,
the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s
F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal
flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued
convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should
diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to
the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant,
and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized
cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional,
areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican
Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in
12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential
over southernmost FL and the Keys.
..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft
covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer
cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should
eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller
cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT
-- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then
pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight,
while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions,
following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very
isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection
possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based
thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL.
...Central/south FL...
A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by
by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms.
Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula,
the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s
F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal
flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued
convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should
diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to
the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant,
and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized
cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional,
areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican
Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in
12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential
over southernmost FL and the Keys.
..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft
covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer
cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should
eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller
cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT
-- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then
pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight,
while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions,
following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very
isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection
possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based
thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL.
...Central/south FL...
A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by
by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms.
Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula,
the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s
F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal
flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued
convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should
diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to
the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant,
and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized
cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional,
areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican
Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in
12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential
over southernmost FL and the Keys.
..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft
covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer
cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should
eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller
cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT
-- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then
pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight,
while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions,
following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very
isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection
possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based
thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL.
...Central/south FL...
A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by
by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms.
Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula,
the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s
F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal
flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued
convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should
diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to
the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant,
and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized
cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional,
areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican
Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in
12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential
over southernmost FL and the Keys.
..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft
covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer
cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. That feature should
eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. A smaller
cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT
-- should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then
pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight,
while devolving to an open-wave trough. Cold low-level conditions,
following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very
isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection
possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based
thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL.
...Central/south FL...
A cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by
by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms.
Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula,
the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s
F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal
flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued
convection. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should
diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to
the convective band. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant,
and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized
cells. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional,
areal outlook. A strong EML inversion -- likely from Mexican
Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf -- is evident in
12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential
over southernmost FL and the Keys.
..Edwards/Dean.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8
period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of
the CONUS.
An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts
east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the
eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate
across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the
Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will
migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through
Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to
develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may
allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast
ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However,
higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting
thunderstorm potential.
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8
period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of
the CONUS.
An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts
east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the
eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate
across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the
Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will
migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through
Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to
develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may
allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast
ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However,
higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting
thunderstorm potential.
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8
period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of
the CONUS.
An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts
east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the
eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate
across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the
Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will
migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through
Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to
develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may
allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast
ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However,
higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting
thunderstorm potential.
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8
period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of
the CONUS.
An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts
east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the
eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate
across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the
Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will
migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through
Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to
develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may
allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast
ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However,
higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting
thunderstorm potential.
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8
period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of
the CONUS.
An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts
east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the
eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate
across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the
Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will
migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through
Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to
develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may
allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast
ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However,
higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting
thunderstorm potential.
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8
period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of
the CONUS.
An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts
east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the
eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate
across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the
Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will
migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through
Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to
develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may
allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast
ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However,
higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting
thunderstorm potential.
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8
period as a generally cold and stable airmass prevails over much of
the CONUS.
An upper ridge over the West on Day 4/Tue will weaken as it shifts
east toward the Rockies/High Plains vicinity. In the wake of the
eroding upper ridge, a series of shortwave troughs will migrate
across the western U.S., reinforcing persistent troughing over the
Plains and eastern states. At the surface, strong high pressure will
migrate east from the Rockies and Plains to the eastern U.S. through
Day 6/Thu. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough/low is forecast to
develop over the central/southern High Plains mid-week. This may
allow for some modest moisture return across parts of the Gulf Coast
ahead of another arctic cold front mid-to-late in the week. However,
higher-quality moisture will likely remain offshore, limiting
thunderstorm potential.
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will persist from the Rockies to the Atlantic
Coast, while an upper ridge develops along the Pacific Coast on
Monday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered over the Rockies,
and enveloping much of the CONUS will prevail. Dry and/or stable
conditions associated with the cold arctic airmass over much of the
country will preclude thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/13/2024
Read more
1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will persist from the Rockies to the Atlantic
Coast, while an upper ridge develops along the Pacific Coast on
Monday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered over the Rockies,
and enveloping much of the CONUS will prevail. Dry and/or stable
conditions associated with the cold arctic airmass over much of the
country will preclude thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 01/13/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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