Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A strong upper trough will develop within the Upper Midwest through the remainder of this week before moving into the Northeast and becoming a large upper-level low this weekend. In the West and Plains, upper-level ridging will develop. Models indicate some potential for a trough to move into the West Coast early next week. At the surface, a cold front will move through the southern Plains and eventually the Gulf/Mid-Atlantic Coasts by the weekend. High pressure will be present in the Great Basin with some modest reinforcement this weekend as a stronger surface high moves south into the Plains. Given the precipitation and cooler temperatures expected with the frontal system in the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, potential for critical fire weather is expected to remain low during the period. Some weak offshore flow is still possible in southern California, which should peak Wednesday morning. Fuel conditions remain rather moist and only locally elevated conditions are anticipated. ..Wendt.. 10/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening, centered on the central Plains. ...20Z Update... The only appreciable change with this update was to expand probabilities slightly westward across western KS. A moist and unstable airmass is present along and east of a cold front across the central Plains. Scattered severe hail should continue to be the main threat in the short term with multiple supercells that have developed across parts of western KS into southwestern NE. Damaging winds may become an increasing concern later this afternoon and evening as convection should attempt to grow upscale into a small bowing cluster along/near the cold front in NE. The threat for a few tornadoes is less clear, as low-level moisture remains somewhat limited. Still, some chance may exist with any supercell that can remain discrete through the early evening, as low-level shear gradually increases in tandem with a modestly strengthening low-level jet. ..Gleason.. 10/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023/ ...Central Great Plains... Multiple rounds of scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, yielding a messy, multifaceted severe weather scenario. Initial ascent along the leading edge of the High Plains buoyancy plume has supported persistent shower and isolated thunderstorms from the eastern OK Panhandle to the north-central KS/south-central NE border area. Most 12Z HREF guidance suggest intensifying thunderstorms will probably evolve in the immediate wake of this activity with the bulk of greater destabilization occurring to its west amid steepening mid-level lapse rates, with decreasing buoyancy ahead of it. Modest mid-level lapse rates and inverted-v low-level thermodynamic profiles downstream should support a threat for mostly isolated severe hail and wind along the leading edge. There will be potential for more intense supercell development along the southwest backside of this initial lobe, around the southwest to south-central KS vicinity, as a plume of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg impinges on this region from the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. This could favor a threat for isolated very large hail up to baseball size during the late afternoon to early evening. The primary lobe of ascent attendant to the shortwave impulse ejecting onto the central High Plains from the Front Range should initiate scattered thunderstorms in a few hours as it impinges on the buoyancy plume. This activity should further intensify along the surface front across far northeast CO and northwest KS into central NE later this afternoon. A plume of upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support supercells conditionally capable of producing significant severe hail. However, consensus of CAM guidance suggests relatively quick upscale growth may occur given the strong forcing for ascent and deep-layer shear vector generally paralleling the surface front. In addition, the gap between these front-aided storms and those within the downstream warm-advection plume should shrink during the evening, further lowering confidence on sustaining discrete supercells. A mix of large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, with convection weakening to the north and east given the expected sharpness of the instability gradient towards the Mid-MO Valley. ...Southern Great Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most probable along the trailing periphery of the KS convective plume into northwest OK, and separately near the dryline in the Permian Basin vicinity during the late afternoon and farther northeast into northwest TX this evening. Mid-level lapse rates with southern extent will be increasingly modest relative to typical severe weather setups along the dryline, suggesting that hail magnitudes may struggle beyond golf ball size. A more favorable wind profile/lapse rate combination for significant severe hail will exist in the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK vicinity, but storm coverage is more questionable here. Overall, there will be sufficient vertical shear/buoyancy for splitting supercells capable of producing large hail and localized severe wind gusts through late evening. ...South-central ND vicinity... A corridor of weak surface-based buoyancy should develop downstream of a shortwave impulse gradually shifting east from the MT/WY/Dakotas border area. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongation to the hodograph within the upper portion of the buoyancy profile could support a few cells producing marginally severe hail during the late afternoon to early evening. Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF TO 55 SSE ALS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212 ..LYONS..10/02/23 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 696 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-059-022340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES COLFAX CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING LEA MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL UNION TXC003-103-109-135-165-243-301-371-389-475-495-022340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR GAINES JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER Read more

WW 696 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 021900Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Southwest Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few to several supercells should develop across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin with a primary threat of large hail. A tornado or two is possible, particularly in the east-central to southeast New Mexico portion of the watch. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northwest of Raton NM to 60 miles south southwest of Wink TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0697 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0697 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 2212 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Areas affected...portions of the western TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022249Z - 030015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms in eastern NM may pose a risk for damaging gusts and hail into portions of the western TX Panhandle and south Plains this evening. A new watch is possible, but uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2235 UTC, regional radar analysis showed scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, ongoing across parts of far eastern NM. Occasional severe gusts and hail have been occurring with this convection as it slowly tracks east/northeast toward the TX border. Thus far, the strongest vertical shear (observed from area VWPs and SPC SFCOA) has remained on the NM side of the border given the mostly meridional deep-layer flow. However, some of the stronger flow aloft may gradually shift eastward into the far western TX Panhandle and south Plains over the next couple of hours. The environment remains broadly favorable along the NM/TX border for storm organization into supercells with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear. However, the severe threat likely decreases rapidly beyond the first row or two of counties in TX, with much weaker vertical shear and buoyancy in place over the central Panhandle. While uncertain, a few storms may pose enough of a severe risk that a new small weather watch is possible. ..Lyons/Edwards.. 10/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 35120304 35490291 35580260 35500235 35040217 34150213 33490210 33150211 33040216 32850235 32860264 32930288 33140307 35120304 Read more

WW 697 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 022310Z - 030700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme eastern New Mexico South Plains and northern Permian Basin of Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 610 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...In addition to ongoing severe convection over NM, several strong-severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the watch area on either side of the TX/NM line and move northward to northeastward through this evening, and past the valid time of watch 696. Damaging hail and severe gusts will be the main concerns, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south southeast of Hobbs NM to 45 miles northeast of Cannon Afb NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 696... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad trough currently in the Great Basin will continue to move east and lose amplitude through the middle of the week. Another reinforcing trough will dig southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. The trough will intensify in the Upper Midwest before becoming a strong upper low in the Northeast by the weekend. Ridging will build into the West over the next couple of days before slowly moving to the east. At the surface, the seasons first strong cold front will move into the Plains on Wednesday and eventually reach the Gulf/Southeast coasts by the weekend. High pressure will intensify in the Great Basin and Plains behind the front. Areas with the driest fuels from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley are expected to see some amount of precipitation along with cooler temperatures as the front progresses to the southeast. These conditions should keep potential for critical fire weather low during the extended period. ...Southern California... A warming and dry trend can be expected beginning Tuesday. Weak offshore flow is also expected to develop and peak Wednesday and Thursday mornings. While some drying of fuels will occur, the current state of fuels does not suggest much more than locally elevated conditions occurring. Barring any significant changes in fuel dryness over the next few days, the potential for critical fire weather continues to appear low. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest potential for scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing a couple tornadoes, significant large hail, and severe wind gusts remains across parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern High Plains. A few supercells posing a threat for large to perhaps very large hail have developed over parts of central/eastern NM. This convection is expected to spread east-northeastward across the southern High Plains through this evening, while posing a continued threat for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two given a favorable kinematic environment. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 for more details. Isolated thunderstorms should also pose some threat for severe hail/wind gusts across southeastern CO and vicinity. Confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe convection was not high enough to expand the Slight Risk across NM into southeastern CO. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 2210 for more information on the severe risk for this area. Low-level moisture remains fairly limited across the western NE and northeastern CO vicinity this afternoon, although some locations are reporting surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s along/south of a front draped across SD. Thunderstorms should eventually move northeastward off the higher terrain of the central Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains, with other convection possibly developing over northeastern CO. Given the well mixed boundary layer, severe downdraft winds still appear to be the primary severe hazard. But, isolated hail may occur with any supercell that can be sustained. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 2209 for more details on the near-term severe threat across this area. ..Gleason.. 10/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... Low to mid 60s surface dew points are pervasive across eastern NM and west TX. This will support a broader plume of moderate buoyancy this afternoon relative to the past couple days with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of central to eastern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos, initiating in the early afternoon. Several discrete supercells should evolve across east-central/southeast NM and the Permian Basin. Modest low-level curvature beneath a moderately elongated and straight mid to upper hodograph should favor large hail production, some of which should reach golf ball size with potential for a few 2-2.5 inch sizes as well. A couple tornadoes will also be possible, most probable in the east-central NM vicinity where low-level hodographs should be slightly more enlarged with lower LCL heights. Storms should consolidate into east-northeast moving clusters by late afternoon to early evening with a strong to isolated severe wind threat spreading across parts of west TX before weakening after sunset. ...Central High Plains to the Dakotas... A lee cyclone becoming established over northeast CO will track north-northeast into southwest SD this evening as mid-level height falls increase downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough moving from UT into WY. A strengthening baroclinic zone, aided by ongoing differential boundary-layer heating within the nearly cloud-free warm sector and stratus lingering behind the front, will support intensifying thunderstorms that develop northeast off the Front Range. Consensus of 12Z HREF guidance supports a scenario of an organized cluster peaking across the western NE Panhandle vicinity in the late afternoon to early evening with a severe wind and isolated hail threat along the baroclinic zone. The severe wind/hail potential should decrease after sunset, but may continue tonight on an isolated basis across parts of the Dakotas. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0220 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper low over parts of the Southwest is forecast to weaken further D2/Tuesday as it begins to shift eastward over the Southern Rockies/Plains. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the low will also weaken, though a belt of somewhat enhanced flow should remain over parts of far southern NM. At the surface, a cooler air mass is expected in the wake of a weak cold front as cloud cover and precipitation chances increase. A few pockets of lower humidity are still possible, but RH recoveries will generally improve overnight. Daytime RH values should also remain higher, at roughly 20-30%. While a few hours of gusty winds may occasionally overlap with areas of lower RH through the day, moderating temperatures, the chance for precipitation, and limited overlap with dry fuels suggest the potential for sustained elevated or critical fire-weather conditions is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 1 22:33:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 1 22:33:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large upper-trough currently over the Great Basin will continue eastward into the Plains early this coming week. The trough will generally lose amplitude with time and upper-level wind fields will weaken as well. By late next week, ridging will build into the West with the upper trough strengthening over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains and eventually the Southeast and East. Surface high pressure will fill in behind the front. Cooler temperatures and precipitation will occur across a broad area as the front and upper trough progress east. This should greatly limit fire weather concerns within the Plains. High pressure filling into the Great Basin will promote some potential for offshore flow in southern California, but fuel receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk. Overall, potential for critical fire weather during the period is expected to remain low. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible until around 10 PM MDT in eastern New Mexico to far west Texas. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward across the TX/OK Panhandles into extreme southwest KS, downstream of developing storms north/west of Amarillo. Otherwise, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities. One strong storm has recently developed across Lincoln County, NM, with isolated supercell development still possible later this afternoon into this evening from eastern NM into far west TX. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 2207 regarding the short-term severe threat in eastern NM. ..Dean.. 10/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023/ ...Eastern NM and far west TX... A plume of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s has enveloped much of eastern NM into west TX and will support a more buoyant air mass later this afternoon relative to yesterday. But the presence of low-level stratus this morning has slowed boundary-layer heating and will temper MLCAPE values to an extent. Still, a confined corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE should develop where cloud breaks are evident across southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are most probable over the higher terrain in this region and should regenerate from mid-afternoon through at least early evening. While deep-layer vertical shear should be modest across much of the area, a narrow zone of effective bulk shear approaching 30 kts should develop in a portion of east-central/southeast NM where low-level south-southeasterlies persist beneath moderate mid-level southwesterlies. This should yield potential for a few slow-moving supercells, although there is uncertainty in just how warm the boundary layer will actually get where the better shear environment exists. Even so, isolated large hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats, with localized severe gusts tending to focus farther south into the Trans-Pecos where surface heating is greater. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper low centered over the Great Basin and Southwest is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the weekend into the early work week. As the upper low slowly breaks down, flow aloft will also become increasingly meridional and weaken with time. As the air mass slowly cools from the advancing cold core and increasing precipitation/cloud cover, the overlap of strong winds and low RH will constrict. Isolated pockets of dry and breezy conditions may persist over more sheltered areas of the Southwest across western NM and far eastern AZ. However, the coverage and the temporal continuity of sustained elevated fire-weather conditions is unlikely to reach elevated criteria D2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 30 22:13:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW NM AND SOUTHERN CO INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.
Mesoscale Discussion 2206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern new NM and southern CO into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302156Z - 010000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered high-based thunderstorms may pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts and/or small hail through this evening. Storm organization potential appears low, and a WW is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing to the east of a broad upper low centered over the Desert Southwest. Over the last hour, these storms have gradually increased in coverage and intensity with a few stronger reflectively cores emerging over parts of east/northeastern NM. On the fringes of the upper-level cold core, surface dewpoints in the mid 40s F were supporting 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE which should be sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. Vertical shear remains modest with much of the stronger southerly flow aloft remaining to the west. However, this should increase with time and 25-30 kt of effective shear may support occasional updraft organization into sustained multicell clusters and or weak supercells. With cloud bases remaining relatively high (at or above 2 km) damaging outflow winds are possible with the more organized storms/clusters through this evening. A few instances of marginally severe hail are also possible given relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and the potential for a few transient supercell structures. Observational trends and recent hi-res guidance suggest scattered storms may pose an occasional severe threat over the next couple of hours into this evening. While flow aloft will continue to increase, nocturnal cooling of the relatively dry boundary layer will likely favor a gradual weakening after dark. Given the uncertainty on the longevity and organization of the potential severe threat, a WW is unlikely at this time. ..Lyons/Bunting.. 09/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33170560 33550645 34520697 35060708 35540688 36360608 37440491 37820432 38010311 37870262 37240218 36100254 34690348 33530440 33220542 33170560 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A broad mid-upper-level trough over the Great Basin this weekend will begin to move into the central/southern Plains by midweek. As this trough moves east, a cold front will move south-southeast through much of the Plains bringing with it an increase in precipitation and cooler, drier air. Although breezy conditions will develop across portions of the Plains ahead of the ejecting trough and approaching cold front, relative humidity should remain sufficiently high to preclude widespread fire weather concerns. ..Marsh.. 09/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest, mainly from late afternoon into this evening. Storms have started to form over the mountains from central New Mexico to south-central Colorado. Expect an increase in coverage and intensity of these storms through the afternoon with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Instability remains quite weak across the Great Basin this afternoon. Weak instability has developed across southern Nevada, beneath the cooling temperatures aloft. However, extensive cloud cover across this area has limited surface heating and any greater instability. Farther south and east, heating is occurring across southern Utah and northern Arizona. However, this region is very dry with dewpoints in the 20s. Nonetheless, there may be adequate heating for a line of thunderstorms to develop from southwest Utah into northwest Arizona and vicinity later this afternoon. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023/ ...Central/eastern NM to southeast CO... Low to mid-level moisture will gradually increase across most of NM into southeast CO, to the east of an amplified upper trough shifting east from CA to NV. In the wake of weakening morning convection across eastern NM, robust boundary-layer heating will yield a modestly unstable air mass by late afternoon with MLCAPE largely peaking around 1000 J/kg. Scattered late afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop off the higher terrain of central to eastern NM into southern CO. Amid the peripheral influence of strengthening mid to upper flow associated with the CA/NV trough, modest-moving multicell clusters should evolve and offer a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts centered on 4 to 8 PM MDT. ...Southern Great Basin... Ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, a low-level baroclinic zone will strengthen somewhat as it shifts east this afternoon into tonight. The paucity of low to mid-level moisture within the warm sector ahead of this zone should delay convective initiation until at least early evening and likely confined to the Lower CO Valley vicinity. A slow-moving band of thunderstorms may evolve across northwest AZ to southwest UT along the edge of surface-based instability. Strong low to mid-level flow should compensate for the meager buoyancy and support a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts. Additional convection should form farther west over the Mojave Desert and spread north-northeast into western UT during the evening as mid-level cooling spreads east, but also coinciding with boundary-layer cooling. Localized strong to severe wind gusts and small hail will be possible with this activity before subsiding later tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes needed to the existing forecast. Please see the previous forecast discussion for more information. ..Marsh.. 09/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... The deepening upper low is forecast to gradually cut off from the stronger mid-level westerlies through the remainder of the weekend. As it settles over the Southwest, strong mid-level flow will continue to reside over parts of NM and the High Plains. Gusty winds and low afternoon humidity should support some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions D2/Sunday. ...Portions of NM and AZ... As the upper low begins to cut off, strong mid-level flow along the eastern periphery will linger over parts of the Southwest through the remainder of the weekend. Breezy southerly winds are expected much of the day across western NM and southeastern AZ, with gusts of 20-25 mph likely. While still relatively dry, the air mass beneath the upper low is expected to cool gradually, supporting higher RH recoveries overnight. Pockets of 15-20% RH still appear likely through the afternoon, but the air mass should be moderated by the cooler temperatures. Still, the gusty winds and localized dryness will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more