Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A cold, arctic airmass has spread across most of the CONUS which has mitigated fire weather concerns for most. The only exception will be across Far West Texas where relatively warm conditions will persist in a region which has been dry for a few weeks. The most likely days for some dry and breezy conditions across Far West Texas will be Wednesday and Thursday when lee troughing is expected to occur over the central High Plains. Beyond Thursday, reinforcing arctic high pressure is expected to build into the Plains again and weaken winds across the region. Despite the expectation for some dry and breezy conditions, fuels are not that favorable and relative humidity is not expected to be overly dry. Therefore, no critical fire weather probabilities are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm area across parts of south FL and the Keys. Isolated convection still appears possible later tonight into early Sunday morning. ..Gleason.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will continue to lift to the northeast into eastern Canada over the next 24 hours. A trailing cold front draped across the western Atlantic into the southern Florida Peninsula will gradually shift east/southeast through the day. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along and behind this front for today and tonight. ...Southern Florida... A narrow band of convection has been ongoing along the cold front this morning as it migrates south. While a few deeper cells have been observed from regional radars, these stronger pulses have been relatively short-lived. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, a combination of poor lapse rates near 700-600 mb and decreasing forcing for ascent have limited storm longevity/intensity thus far and should continue to be detrimental to severe potential through the remainder of the afternoon. A second round of isolated showers/weak thunderstorms is anticipated late tonight into early Sunday morning as weak ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads meager (500 J/kg MUCAPE or less) post-frontal buoyancy rooted above the frontal inversion. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 13 19:54:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 01/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more