Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist from the Rockies to the Atlantic Coast, while an upper ridge develops along the Pacific Coast on Monday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered over the Rockies, and enveloping much of the CONUS will prevail. Dry and/or stable conditions associated with the cold arctic airmass over much of the country will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist from the Rockies to the Atlantic Coast, while an upper ridge develops along the Pacific Coast on Monday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered over the Rockies, and enveloping much of the CONUS will prevail. Dry and/or stable conditions associated with the cold arctic airmass over much of the country will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist from the Rockies to the Atlantic Coast, while an upper ridge develops along the Pacific Coast on Monday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered over the Rockies, and enveloping much of the CONUS will prevail. Dry and/or stable conditions associated with the cold arctic airmass over much of the country will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will stall over the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity on Sunday morning, while a belt of midlevel westerly flow strengthens across the southern Rockies. Immediately ahead of the front, a modest pressure gradient will favor a localized area of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds from far southeast NM into the Trans-Pecos. At the same time, diurnal heating and downslope flow will contribute to 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Enhanced west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring a broad/weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (immediately ahead of a southward-surging cold front). A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the surface cyclone will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper level trough will remain over the CONUS on Sunday. A reinforcing shortwave will dig southeast from the northern Rockies into the Plains within the larger-scale trough. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will envelop much of the country outside of the Southwest and Southeast. This arctic airmass will bring bitter cold to a large portion of the U.S., with dry and/or stable conditions precluding thunderstorm potential. Some lingering moisture over the FL Peninsula will persist as a surface low deepens off the eastern FL/GA/SC coast. However, modest ascent and poor lapse rates/warm midlevel temps will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper level trough will remain over the CONUS on Sunday. A reinforcing shortwave will dig southeast from the northern Rockies into the Plains within the larger-scale trough. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will envelop much of the country outside of the Southwest and Southeast. This arctic airmass will bring bitter cold to a large portion of the U.S., with dry and/or stable conditions precluding thunderstorm potential. Some lingering moisture over the FL Peninsula will persist as a surface low deepens off the eastern FL/GA/SC coast. However, modest ascent and poor lapse rates/warm midlevel temps will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper level trough will remain over the CONUS on Sunday. A reinforcing shortwave will dig southeast from the northern Rockies into the Plains within the larger-scale trough. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will envelop much of the country outside of the Southwest and Southeast. This arctic airmass will bring bitter cold to a large portion of the U.S., with dry and/or stable conditions precluding thunderstorm potential. Some lingering moisture over the FL Peninsula will persist as a surface low deepens off the eastern FL/GA/SC coast. However, modest ascent and poor lapse rates/warm midlevel temps will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper level trough will remain over the CONUS on Sunday. A reinforcing shortwave will dig southeast from the northern Rockies into the Plains within the larger-scale trough. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will envelop much of the country outside of the Southwest and Southeast. This arctic airmass will bring bitter cold to a large portion of the U.S., with dry and/or stable conditions precluding thunderstorm potential. Some lingering moisture over the FL Peninsula will persist as a surface low deepens off the eastern FL/GA/SC coast. However, modest ascent and poor lapse rates/warm midlevel temps will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper level trough will remain over the CONUS on Sunday. A reinforcing shortwave will dig southeast from the northern Rockies into the Plains within the larger-scale trough. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will envelop much of the country outside of the Southwest and Southeast. This arctic airmass will bring bitter cold to a large portion of the U.S., with dry and/or stable conditions precluding thunderstorm potential. Some lingering moisture over the FL Peninsula will persist as a surface low deepens off the eastern FL/GA/SC coast. However, modest ascent and poor lapse rates/warm midlevel temps will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat is negligible today. ...Discussion... Intense 12hr midlevel height falls will spread across New England over the next 30 hr in response to an upper trough that is expected to advance across the Great Lakes toward Georgian Bay by the end of the period. Strong low-level warm advection early in the period will likely contribute to ascent necessary for elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, more than adequate for lightning discharge in the more robust updrafts. Farther south, weak buoyancy lingers across south FL. Weak low-level convergence along the front may prove adequate for instigating surface-based updrafts capable of generating lightning. Primary threat should be prior to 21z. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm threat is negligible today. ...Discussion... Intense 12hr midlevel height falls will spread across New England over the next 30 hr in response to an upper trough that is expected to advance across the Great Lakes toward Georgian Bay by the end of the period. Strong low-level warm advection early in the period will likely contribute to ascent necessary for elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield MUCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, more than adequate for lightning discharge in the more robust updrafts. Farther south, weak buoyancy lingers across south FL. Weak low-level convergence along the front may prove adequate for instigating surface-based updrafts capable of generating lightning. Primary threat should be prior to 21z. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/13/2024 Read more