Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS during the upcoming week, reinforcing an arctic surface airmass over much of the CONUS and limiting wildfire-spread potential in most places. One localized exception would be portions of Far West Texas, which will experience dry downslope flow early in the week amid marginally receptive fuels. If guidance consensus continues to suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds will develop during the afternoon, Elevated highlights may need to be added in the Days 1-2 period. Medium-range guidance also depicts surface lee troughing along the southern High Plains between mid-level troughs on Day 6/Wednesday, which may promote dry downslope flow. However, too much uncertainty remains this far in advance in terms of fuel receptiveness or best area of overlapping winds/RH to deduce with confidence whether Elevated-equivalent conditions will occur. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS during the upcoming week, reinforcing an arctic surface airmass over much of the CONUS and limiting wildfire-spread potential in most places. One localized exception would be portions of Far West Texas, which will experience dry downslope flow early in the week amid marginally receptive fuels. If guidance consensus continues to suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds will develop during the afternoon, Elevated highlights may need to be added in the Days 1-2 period. Medium-range guidance also depicts surface lee troughing along the southern High Plains between mid-level troughs on Day 6/Wednesday, which may promote dry downslope flow. However, too much uncertainty remains this far in advance in terms of fuel receptiveness or best area of overlapping winds/RH to deduce with confidence whether Elevated-equivalent conditions will occur. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0055 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 121624Z - 122030Z SUMMARY...Areas of 1+ in/hour snowfall rates appear probable within a broader swath of moderate snowfall across eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past couple of hours have been reporting visibilities between 1/4 to 1/2 mile from eastern IA into southern WI and far northern IL. Sustained 20-25 knot winds across eastern IA are supporting areas of blowing snow per blowing snow model output and web cams, which is contributing to the reduced visibilities. Further east into WI/IL, weaker winds suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are the primary contributors to the reduced visibility. Regional radar mosaics support this idea with relatively short (~1 hour) snow bands noted over the past hour. These bands appear to be mainly driven by strong warm air advection within the 0-2 km layer based on regional VWP observations. Despite the magnitude of the warm air advection, 12 UTC and recent RAP forecast soundings suggest this ascent is displaced from the DGZ within the 3-4 km layer. This will modulate snowfall rates across the broader region, but heavier snowfall rates at/above 1 in/hour will be possible within the transient snow bands. This trend should continue through early/mid afternoon before stronger ascent within the warm advection regime shifts northeast with the synoptic low. ..Moore.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42298784 42288865 42098933 41709012 41229071 40879134 40829179 40969224 41859276 42199268 42539238 43209128 44258906 44358860 44458819 44478769 44388732 43928757 43318770 42818768 42488762 42298784 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z Elevated highlights have been added to portions of Far West Texas, as the latest guidance consensus depicts stronger surface winds by afternoon, with 15+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping with 15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Fuels in this region also appear modestly receptive to fire spread. However, the rest of the CONUS should see limited wildfire-spread concerns due to either very cold surface temperatures, abundant precipitation, and/or non-receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the southern Rockies on Saturday, favoring a weak lee cyclone over eastern NM (ahead of an approaching cold front). Along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region, where downslope flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH. As a result, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, though these conditions appear too marginal/localized for highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0054 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0054 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...southern Mississippi into Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121611Z - 122015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area from southern and eastern Mississippi into western and southern Alabama is being monitored for watch potential. DISCUSSION...A low continues to deepen near the MS/AL border with associated thunderstorm line segments. This area of storms near the low has been producing 35-45 kt winds consistently. The air mass to the east becomes progressively more stable with cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints. Therefore, a ramp up in storm intensity is not anticipated over much of northern AL. Farther south, a warm front intersects the main cold front over east-central MS, with better moisture spreading northward into southwest AL and southern MS. Showers are developing in the warm advection zone, but instability is generally below 1000 J/kg. It is uncertain how much severe activity will occur over the next few hours as the upper wave lifts north of the area, veering low-level winds over the small warm sector and with limited lift. Warm sector trends will continue to be monitored as destabilization occurs into southern AL where lift along the warm front could support a few severe storms. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 32308941 32578894 33038836 33568812 34148808 34198791 34038771 33468732 32698699 32298686 31938686 31188718 30858812 30798870 30968926 31508963 32008958 32308941 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHERN GA...NORTHERN FL...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into tonight across southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida, and southern South Carolina. ...20Z Update... A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as southern AL and southern GA. Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast. Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited. Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across southern GA. Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line. ..Mosier.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. Read more