Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 12 15:31:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0053 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS...NORTHEAST LA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0053 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Central/northern MS...Northeast LA...extreme southwest TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 121355Z - 121530Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and a couple tornadoes will move eastward through mid morning. DISCUSSION...A convective line, which earlier produced measured severe gusts across AR, has shown signs of weakening across far northern MS into western TN, within an increasingly cool and less unstable environment. Farther south, convection has evolved into multiple bands of semi-discrete storms, with occasional stronger midlevel rotation noted with the strongest cells. While storms across TN may continue to outpace stronger moistening/destabilization, storms across central/northern MS will continue will have greater access to richer low-level moisture and modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). A notable increase in low-level flow has been noted on the KDGX VWP, with 60-80 kt noted in the lowest 1-3 km AGL, so any organized storm structures within this regime will pose a threat for both severe gusts (potentially 65+ kt) and a couple tornadoes. Recent surface observations indicate strong pressure falls associated with a deepening cyclone near the TN/AR border, which may help to sustain organized convection into mid/late morning as it moves northeastward, with some potential for later downstream watch issuance into parts of northwest AL. Some southward expansion of WW 10 may also be needed to account for increasing convection into south-central MS. ..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32159187 33559066 34389016 35139007 35428990 35568948 35358875 35028812 34738793 34068795 33338816 32108892 31778936 31768996 31799051 31829097 31889118 31869144 32159187 Read more

WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HEZ TO 60 S GLH TO 40 S GWO TO 30 E GWO TO 15 ESE UOX TO 35 S MKL TO 15 NNW MKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053 ..JEWELL..01/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC003-007-009-013-017-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051- 057-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-091-095- 097-099-101-103-105-115-117-121-123-127-129-139-141-145-149-155- 159-163-121540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN ATTALA BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS HOLMES ITAWAMBA JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LEE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PONTOTOC PRENTISS RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH Read more