Severe Storms

MD 2234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Areas affected...portions of central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 050002Z - 050130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Several cluster of storms including a few supercells should continue east/southeast with a risk for damaging winds and hail. A new WW or local extensions of existing watches are being considered. DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central TX, ongoing convection has slowly grown upscale into a few, more defined clusters over the last couple of hours. Previous storms over OK and north TX have pushed an effective outflow boundary south of the Red River to just north of I-20. Along and south of the boundary, the air mass remains quite unstable (1500-2000 J/kg) of MLCAPE owing to the upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints. Area VADs also show the air mass remains moderately sheared, sufficient for organized severe storms. Given the recent upscale growth trends, further growth of the clusters is expected with time. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely severe threat given the potential for strong updrafts and the more linear structures. However, with some potential for supercells and the moderate buoyancy, isolated hail will also remain possible. The greatest severe risk appears to be focused along the I-20 corridor through the next several hours, though storms may eventually take on a more southeastward motion as outflow consolidates. Given the relatively pristine air mass ahead of the ongoing storms, severe potential should increase this evening. A new WW and/or extensions of the existing watches are being considered. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 32269983 32869876 33169793 33289654 33229577 32989546 32679529 32029536 31789652 31379960 31609986 31869994 32259990 32269983 Read more

WW 0703 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 703 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E HOB TO 20 NW LBB TO 5 SE SPS TO 40 SE FSI. ..THORNTON..10/04/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 703 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-077-107-125-169-263-269-275-303-305-433-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY CROSBY DICKENS GARZA KENT KING KNOX LUBBOCK LYNN STONEWALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 703 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 041820Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 703 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-central and southwest Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Several supercells will develop with a primary initial threat of very large hail. These cells should consolidate into an eastward-moving cluster towards early evening with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Lubbock TX to 15 miles north of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 704 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..10/04/23 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC033-043-059-081-103-105-115-135-151-173-207-227-235-253-317- 329-335-353-371-383-413-415-417-431-435-441-443-447-451-461- 050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN BREWSTER CALLAHAN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD IRION JONES MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TERRELL THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 704 SEVERE TSTM TX 041920Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest to west-central Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial supercell near Fort Stockton may persist for several hours while additional supercells form farther north-northeast across the Permian Basin. Very large hail will be the main threat initially, with severe wind gusts more likely as storms consolidate into eastward-moving clusters. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west of Dryden TX to 100 miles northeast of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SPS TO 20 SW ADM TO 30 NNE ADM TO 10 SSE CQB. ..THORNTON..10/04/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-023-061-069-077-085-091-095-101-107-111-121-127- 050040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW HASKELL JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA TXC085-097-119-121-147-181-223-231-237-277-337-497-503-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DELTA DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON HOPKINS HUNT JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE WISE YOUNG Read more

MD 2233 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...704... FOR NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Areas affected...Northwest/Southwest/West-Central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703...704... Valid 042306Z - 050100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703, 704 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for large to very large hail and damaging gusts will continue for at least the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Outflow-augmented cold front extending from far northwest TX into the Permian Basin continues to progress gradually southward/southeastward. Thunderstorms persist along this boundary, supported by ample buoyancy and low-level convergence. Given the abundance of storms and close storm proximity, a supercell-in-cluster storm mode currently prevails, with the strongest updrafts north of the composite outflow/cold front. Even with most storms north of the boundary, there does appear to be a more outflow-dominant structure to the pair of updrafts over Baylor and King Counties in northwest TX. Warm, moist, and buoyant conditions exists downstream of these updrafts, with steep low-level lapse rates in place as well. Development into an organized convective line appears probable, and the overall expectations is that some severe potential will persist for at least the next few hours into western portions of north TX. Further south and west into the Permian Basin and southwest TX, a more cellular storm mode dominants. Long hodographs have supported splitting supercells capable of large hail thus far, which should remain the primary risk for at least the next few hours. Strong gusts will also remain possible, particularly with the supercell currently in Scurry County. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30710294 31450255 32120218 32790225 33610239 33940206 33850058 34109902 34029846 33779814 33269826 32739886 31810005 30610058 29860184 29850254 30120305 30710294 Read more

WW 705 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 041945Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central and southeast Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few supercells should consolidate into an east-southeast moving MCS that spreads across parts of south Oklahoma and north Texas into this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Wichita Falls TX to 40 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703...WW 704... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Grams Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A strong upper trough/low will develop late this week across the upper Midwest and Northeast. In the West and High Plains, upper-level ridging will build. Surface high pressure will cover much of the CONUS behind a cold front through part of the upcoming weekend. Model guidance does show a trough approaching the Northwest by early next week, but the timing and evolution of this trough and associated surface features is uncertain. Surface high pressure into the Great Basin and Northwest will drive some dry offshore winds in parts of northern and southern California into the weekend. Given the state of fuels in these areas, only locally elevated conditions are expected. Some dry and windy conditions are also possible in the West as the trough moves into the interior, but, again, fuels are currently not receptive and are not expected to become critically dry in the near future. Depending on the evolution of the next trough early next week, some high pressure may build into the Northwest and Great Basin. Additional offshore winds would then be possible around the middle /end of next week in southern California. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance. ..Wendt.. 10/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through early morning across parts of the southern Great Plains. Destructive, very large hail and a few significant severe wind gusts will be the main threats. Any tornado risk is expected to be brief. ...Much of western TX into southern OK... Scattered severe storms likely producing large hail have already developed across parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains, with a few cells now moving into southwest OK. A front continues to drift southward across central OK and the TX Panhandle, with pressure falls noted within the surface trough. The greatest potential for particularly damaging hail appears to be located from northwest TX into southern OK through this afternoon and into the evening, as storms ride east/northeast along the boundary. The deepening moist layer, even with weak low-level winds, will provide favorable storm relative inflow for long-lived severe storms given moderate steering currents aloft. This, combined with additionally favorable mid to high level wind shear/elongated hodographs, suggest a storm or two could produce long swaths of significant hail. Additional severe storms producing hail will still be possible north of the boundary, as pockets of heating continue, and the air mass remains sufficiently unstable. The northeasterly boundary-layer winds north of the boundary may yield one or more left-moving cells. Other severe storms producing hail and damaging gusts are likely across much of West and western-North TX where the air mass continues to heat well ahead of the southward-moving front, including the area from Ft. Stockton/Midland northeastward toward Abilene. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023/ ...Southern Great Plains... Confidence continues to increase with potential for a significant severe weather episode across north/west TX and south OK this afternoon into tonight, yielding expansion of the cat 3 severe risk. The northern extent of a rather rich western Gulf air mass has spread across much of north TX and southwest to east OK, characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points. Moderate boundary-layer heating coupled with the rich moisture will yield a broad plume of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. Elevated thunderstorms may continue to shift east into northeast OK while renewed development across the TX Panhandle will probably intensify by early afternoon as it transitions to surface-based development along the southward-sagging composite cold front/large-scale outflow. Scattered thunderstorm development is also anticipated southward into the Trans-Pecos as low-level convergence/upslope increases near the dryline. A lack of surface cyclogenesis will result in relatively weak low-level mass response and correspondingly small low-level hodographs this afternoon in the warm sector. However, substantial speed shear above 700 mb will yield relatively straight and highly elongated mid to upper-level hodographs favoring splitting supercells with initial storm development. These initial supercells will be capable of producing very large to giant hail from 2-3.5 inches, mainly across west TX where steeper mid-level lapse rates and discrete supercell mode will persist longer. Farther north and east, consolidating outflow interactions and minimal convective inhibition will likely result in quicker upscale growth into clusters and bowing line segments by late afternoon/early evening as storm coverage becomes widespread. Still, given the favorable hodographs for strong mid-level rotation, longer-track embedded supercells will be possible, especially along the composite front/outflow across south OK initially, and over western north TX later. These may yield destructive wind-driven hail swaths with localized gusts reaching 75-85 mph. A large MCS is anticipated this evening, moving east-southeast over north/northeast TX with a decreasing severe wind risk overnight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, ridging across the western US is forecast to intensify through the forecast period. To the east, persistent troughing is excepted over the central and eastern US as a second shortwave moves south out of Canada. With high pressure over the West, some offshore flow may linger over parts of southern CA through the day and into the overnight. However, with a cooler air mass and widespread precip over the preceding days, fire-weather concerns are low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0699 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 699 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 50 WSW HLC TO 30 S MCK TO 10 ENE MCK TO 10 N BBW TO 35 NW BUB. ..LYONS..10/03/23 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 699 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-051-063-065-101-135-137-141-147-163-165-171-179-183-195- 203-032340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM LANE NESS NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS RUSH SCOTT SHERIDAN SMITH TREGO WICHITA NEC001-015-019-047-061-065-071-073-077-079-083-089-093-099-137- 145-163-175-181-183-032340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOYD BUFFALO DAWSON FRANKLIN FURNAS GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY HALL HARLAN HOLT HOWARD KEARNEY PHELPS Read more

WW 699 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 031820Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far northeast Colorado Northwest to north-central Kansas Southwest to central Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few to several supercells should develop but quickly grow upscale into northeast-moving clusters. Large hail will be the primary initial threat with sporadic severe wind gusts becoming more prominent towards early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles southwest of Hill City KS to 15 miles north northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0700 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 700 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..10/03/23 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 700 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-043-081-103-105-115-135-151-173-227-235-317-329-335- 353-371-383-415-431-443-451-461-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCURRY STERLING TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 700 SEVERE TSTM TX 032005Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 700 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are likely initially near the Lower Pecos Valley and then developing north across the eastern Permian Basin vicinity. Large hail up to golf ball size will be the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles south southeast of Fort Stockton TX to 55 miles north northeast of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0701 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0701 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 701 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MN NE SD 032205Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 701 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa North Central Kansas Southwest Minnesota Eastern Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms will spread northeastward across the watch area this evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging winds and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Brookings SD to 45 miles west southwest of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699...WW 700... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0702 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0702 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 702 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 032230Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 702 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly forming over southwest Kansas. These storms will build northeastward through the evening, posing a risk of very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Concordia KS to 35 miles west of Alva OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 699...WW 700...WW 701... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

MD 2223 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699...701... FOR EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 2223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Areas affected...eastern NE...southeast SD...southwest MN...and far western IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699...701... Valid 032356Z - 040130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699, 701 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing storms will continue to grow upscale into a QLCS. The risk for winds and a brief tornado or two will continue. DISCUSSION...As of 2345 UTC, regional radar analysis shows much of the storms over NE and SD have grown upscale into a QLCS. Ahead of this line, the environment remains weak to moderately unstable, sufficient for storm maintenance. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear will continue to support storm organization within the QLCS. The linear mode will support a risk for damaging winds (some 70+ mph), especially with any sustained bowing segments or embedded supercells. Low-level shear should also increase into this evening as the low-level jet strengthens over eastern NE and far southeast SD. Area VADs already show initial signs of this with enlarging low-level hodographs below 1 km. While storm mode and boundary-layer RH are not optimal, a tornado or two will remain possible with embedded supercells or QLCS features this evening. Severe trends will be monitored over the next couple of hours for any local extension of WW701 eastward ..Lyons.. 10/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID... LAT...LON 42989587 42499582 41779574 41249573 40869581 40549590 40199612 40079651 39889770 39999820 40079840 40299856 40589852 41119833 41359829 42649799 42969783 43279775 43619775 44219778 44529745 44609714 44599647 44289606 43869599 42989587 Read more