Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0066 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Areas affected...East TX...northwest LA...southern AR...and northern MS Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 150048Z - 150545Z SUMMARY...An increase in winter mixed precipitation is expected from portions of east TX east-northeastward into northern MS over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Over the next few hours, a band of low-level frontogenesis extending from northeast TX through southern AR into northern MS is expected to strengthen in response to increasing low-level confluence. Along/south of this feature, the ascending branch of the frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm advection should support an increase in precipitation over the next few hours. Radar echoes are gradually increasing across this corridor amid cooling cloud tops. Forecast soundings generally depict a 2-4 deg C warm nose just below 850 mb atop a substantial sub-freezing layer (surface temperatures in the upper teens to lower/middle 20s). These profiles should support a mix of sleet and freezing rain across much of the area, with the primary precipitation type expected to transition to sleet given an ample low-level sub-freezing layer and nocturnally cooling surface temperatures. The one exception may be over the southern portions of the discussion area (east-central TX into western LA), where a 4-6 deg C warm nose atop a shallower sub-freezing layer may favor increasing hydrometeor melting and freezing rain. Nevertheless, the potential for impacts from the mixed winter precipitation should gradually increase in the 02-06Z time frame. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30979415 30739472 30989525 31289558 32249571 32979551 33579493 33939418 34319227 34729040 34898949 34918850 34768829 34338823 34068862 33528961 32719140 31969268 30979415 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Florida... Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period. Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around 600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear. While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Florida... Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period. Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around 600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear. While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Florida... Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period. Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around 600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear. While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Florida... Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period. Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around 600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear. While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Florida... Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period. Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around 600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear. While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive arctic air mass and related cold surface temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns minimal across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0065 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Areas affected...Southern Maine Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 142108Z - 150115Z SUMMARY...Snow squalls potential should begin to gradually decline through the evening hours amid the onset of nocturnal cooling. However, impactful snow squalls should continue in the near-term (next 1-2 hours) across southern Maine. DISCUSSION...Snow squalls continue to spread east across the New England region with several reports of significant visibility reductions and rapid snow accumulations (upwards of 1-2 in/hour snow rates). This trend should continue for the near term (next 1-2 hours) as the broken line of convective showers along the front pushes into southern Maine. However, downstream temperatures have fallen slightly over the past 30-60 minutes due to the onset of nocturnal cooling. Further temperature reductions are likely given scattered cloud cover ahead of the approaching cold front. Recent forecast soundings suggest that buoyancy and low-level lapse rates will diminish as temperatures fall into the upper 20s, which should modulate the convective intensity of the snow squalls. Consequently, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated beyond the next 2-3 hours as temperatures fall from the mid 30s into the upper 20s ahead of the front. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 43557133 44737119 44947097 45107059 45496876 45456832 45006786 44686798 44376861 44096950 43707022 43407062 43287086 43317117 43557133 Read more

MD 0064 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Areas affected...Upstate New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 142049Z - 150045Z SUMMARY...The onset of heavy snowfall rates up to (and possibly exceeding) two inches per hour is anticipated in the next few hours for the northeast shore of Lake Ontario. A heavy lake-effect snow band emanating off Lake Erie should continue into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown the development of a more persistent lake-effect snow band in the Watertown, NY vicinity. Additionally, low-level confluence over Lake Ontario may be increasing based on trends in the shallow convective streaks in GOES visible imagery. High-res model guidance has hinted in the development of a more persistent lake-effect band beginning during the 21-00 UTC period over the past several model runs. The aforementioned observed trends lend confidence to this forecast and suggest the onset may be closer to the 21-23 UTC period. Upstream, lake-effect bands coming off of Lake Erie have resulted in snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour. Given similar thermodynamic profiles aloft and warmer water temperatures (6 C vs. 4 C), similar, if not higher, snowfall rates are expected. To the southwest, a persistent lake-effect band to the south of Buffalo, NY is expected to persist into the evening hours. As mentioned, snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour have been observed, and strong low-level confluence over Lake Erie is noted in recent surface observations. Guidance hints at a gradual weakening of this band after the 00 UTC time frame. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43837636 44047626 44267527 44277493 44157463 44057453 43777450 43587463 43497483 43557597 43627624 43737632 43837636 Read more