Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front will move across the central Gulf coast states and Florida on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. While some modest Gulf moisture will move along the coast and the FL Peninsula, thermodynamic profiles overall are forecast to remain poor. Isolated thunderstorms may occur, but severe potential is expected to remain low. Otherwise, strong surface high pressure building over the Plains early in the period will migrate east through the weekend, and an intrusion of a cold/dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... A weak surface low and attendant cold front will move across the central Gulf coast states and Florida on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. While some modest Gulf moisture will move along the coast and the FL Peninsula, thermodynamic profiles overall are forecast to remain poor. Isolated thunderstorms may occur, but severe potential is expected to remain low. Otherwise, strong surface high pressure building over the Plains early in the period will migrate east through the weekend, and an intrusion of a cold/dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning will develop southeast to the central/southern Plains vicinity by early Thursday. In response, lee low development is forecast over the central/southern High Plains. A weak surface low will migrate along the Red River (OK/TX) overnight. The resulting southerly low-level flow will foster some modest Gulf moisture returning to the immediate TX coast by the end of the period. However, an antecedent dry/cold airmass over much of the CONUS prior to this late-period return flow will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Florida Peninsula... Broad upper troughing will be in place east of the Rockies on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will pivot east/southeast from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure over eastern NC will lift north/northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. A trailing cold front will be oriented from eastern NC south/southeast along the SC/GA coast and into the FL Panhandle during the morning. Ahead of the front, 60s F dewpoints will be in place across much of the FL Peninsula. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly 850-700 mb flow will promote continued warm advection across the region, as the surface front develops southeast. Typically, effective shear values near/above 40 kt would support organized thunderstorms with some risk for severe. However, weak boundary-layer heating and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will limit instability. Furthermore, deep-layer flow parallel to the front will likely result in storms that develop near the front quickly becoming undercut. Finally, any stronger ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough will remain north of the Peninsula and poorly timed with the front. Isolated thunderstorms, and one or two stronger storms producing gusty winds, will be possible. However, overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0066 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Areas affected...East TX...northwest LA...southern AR...and northern MS Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 150048Z - 150545Z SUMMARY...An increase in winter mixed precipitation is expected from portions of east TX east-northeastward into northern MS over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Over the next few hours, a band of low-level frontogenesis extending from northeast TX through southern AR into northern MS is expected to strengthen in response to increasing low-level confluence. Along/south of this feature, the ascending branch of the frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm advection should support an increase in precipitation over the next few hours. Radar echoes are gradually increasing across this corridor amid cooling cloud tops. Forecast soundings generally depict a 2-4 deg C warm nose just below 850 mb atop a substantial sub-freezing layer (surface temperatures in the upper teens to lower/middle 20s). These profiles should support a mix of sleet and freezing rain across much of the area, with the primary precipitation type expected to transition to sleet given an ample low-level sub-freezing layer and nocturnally cooling surface temperatures. The one exception may be over the southern portions of the discussion area (east-central TX into western LA), where a 4-6 deg C warm nose atop a shallower sub-freezing layer may favor increasing hydrometeor melting and freezing rain. Nevertheless, the potential for impacts from the mixed winter precipitation should gradually increase in the 02-06Z time frame. ..Weinman.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30979415 30739472 30989525 31289558 32249571 32979551 33579493 33939418 34319227 34729040 34898949 34918850 34768829 34338823 34068862 33528961 32719140 31969268 30979415 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Florida... Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period. Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around 600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear. While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Florida... Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period. Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around 600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear. While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Florida... Latest model guidance continues to suggest broad southwesterly flow will persist across the Gulf Basin/FL along the southern fringe of a larger mid-continent trough. In the absence of any meaningful low-latitude short waves, low-level warm advection will likely be the primary mechanism influencing convection during the day1 period. Surface front is expected to reorient itself from the northern Gulf Basin, east across the northern FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Weak destabilization is expected as this occurs along with a focused LLJ near the boundary during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings near the frontal zone suggest SBCAPE around 600-800 J/kg with modest lapse rates, but weak low-level shear. While deep-layer shear is likely adequate for sustaining longer-lived updrafts, at this time it appears updrafts should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/15/2024 Read more