Severe Storms

MD 0097 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Areas affected...South-central into northwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022103Z - 022330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storm development is possible late this afternoon, and will become increasingly likely this evening. Large hail is expected to be the primary threat, though isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. Watch issuance is possible by late afternoon or early evening. DISCUSSION...At 2045 UTC, a Pacific cold front/effective dryline extended from the western TX Panhandle southeastward into parts of northwest TX, and then southwestward toward western portions of the Edwards Plateau into the Big Bend region. High-based convection has developed west of the front across the Permian Basin region, in association with deep mixing and large-scale ascent attendant to a upper-level trough that is approaching west TX from the southern Rockies. East of the front, low-level moisture remains rather modest with dewpoints in the 50s F, but MLCAPE is still expected to increase into the 1000-1500 J/kg range as cold temperatures aloft (-18C to -20C at 500 mb) and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. While substantial capping persists across the warm sector, continued heating along the western periphery of the low-level moist axis will act to reduce MLCINH through late afternoon. With time, ongoing high-based convection may intensify as it moves into better moisture/instability, with additional development possible near the front by early evening from northwest TX southward to near the Rio Grande. The onset of the greater severe threat remains somewhat uncertain, and may hold off until early evening, when stronger large-scale ascent begins to impinge across the warm sector. The most conditionally favorable environment is expected to evolve over the Edwards Plateau/south-central TX, where stronger mid/upper-level flow and greater hodograph elongation is expected this evening. Isolated supercells capable of large to very large hail will be possible in this area, with some threat for localized severe gusts and possibly a tornado, depending on the extent to which surface-based convection can be sustained. A few organized cells/clusters will also be possible into parts of northwest TX. Watch issuance is possible in order to cover these threats, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. ..Dean/Goss.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29580151 29820185 30100191 30580184 31080160 31520130 32480075 32830031 33249894 32369818 30339802 28969835 28039895 28029945 28000006 28460053 29290129 29580151 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms have developed in an arc from the TX Panhandle across southwest OK and into north-central TX amid the broad ascent and warm-air advection associated with the approaching wave. These elevated storms will likely continue to move northeastward/eastward throughout the afternoon and evening, but with limited severe potential given their elevated character and displacement east of the better buoyancy. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated along the Pacific cold front as it moves eastward this afternoon and evening. The airmass ahead of this front will continue to destabilize as the low-level clouds erode and low-level moisture advection continues. The strongest storms still appear most likely from far northwest TX/southwest OK through the TX Hill Country this afternoon and evening, with large hail as the primary threat. Bowing line segments could produce some damaging gusts as well. Overall thunderstorms coverage is still expected to increase over time and with eastern extent into central OK and north-central/central TX this evening. However, prevailing low-level stability over this region suggest mostly elevated storms with the potential for hail, but a damaging gust or two may still be able to reach the surface. Farther south (into southeast TX), damaging gusts appear to be main hazard as the front encounters more favorable low-level moisture and related buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. Read more