Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should dig southward along or very near the northern/central CA Coast Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, is also apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass should slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest by Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume is expected to remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s. Still, a weak shortwave trough forecast to eject across the northern/ central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest. It could also provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday night from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should dig southward along or very near the northern/central CA Coast Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, is also apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass should slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest by Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume is expected to remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s. Still, a weak shortwave trough forecast to eject across the northern/ central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest. It could also provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday night from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should dig southward along or very near the northern/central CA Coast Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, is also apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass should slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest by Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume is expected to remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s. Still, a weak shortwave trough forecast to eject across the northern/ central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest. It could also provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday night from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should dig southward along or very near the northern/central CA Coast Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, is also apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass should slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest by Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume is expected to remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s. Still, a weak shortwave trough forecast to eject across the northern/ central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest. It could also provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday night from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low should dig southward along or very near the northern/central CA Coast Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, is also apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass should slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest by Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume is expected to remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s. Still, a weak shortwave trough forecast to eject across the northern/ central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest. It could also provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday night from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Florida Panhandle...Far Southern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270355Z - 270630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue for another hour or two across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. The threat is expected to be marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest KTLH high-resolution radar shows a small cluster of thunderstorms, with one distinct rotating cell, near the Florida-Georgia state line to the northwest of Tallahassee. This cluster is located in a moist but weakly unstable airmass, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP near 250 J/kg. The WSR-88D VWP in far southern Georgia has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 0-3km storm-relative helicity around 270 m2/s2. This may be enough to continue an isolated severe threat over the next hour, as storms move eastward across the eastern Florida Panhandle. Marginally severe winds and hail will be the primary threats. Poor lapse rates are expected to limit the overall severe potential. ..Broyles/Goss.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30478306 30318388 30298451 30498466 30878453 31068412 31128313 30868285 30478306 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more