Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as another deep upper-level trough gradually moves eastward across the West. A surface cyclone is forecast to amplify and move northeastward just offshore of the Carolina coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps through the Florida Peninsula. While a favorable overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be in place across the FL Peninsula prior to the frontal passage, weakening large-scale ascent across the warm sector is currently expected to limit storm coverage and intensity. Otherwise, elevated convection may persist through the day across parts of the coastal Carolinas. Across parts of the Northwest, Great Basin, and northern Rockies, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper-level trough may support weak convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes. Gusty winds may accompany convection across parts of eastern NV and western UT, but weak instability should limit the severe threat. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 Read more