Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...South to central FL... A mid-level closed low over near the FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday will gradually decay as it evolves into a lower-amplitude open wave moving east across the peninsula and off the Atlantic coast. South of the low, the belt of fast mid-level southwesterlies will overlap the Keys/far south FL before being shunted southward through the day. Within this corridor, potential for mid-level updraft rotation would be conditionally favored in the 12-15Z period. With multiple rounds of D1 convection expected, the composite outflow/effective front should be suppressed to the FL Keys/Straits vicinity during mid to late morning. The less suppressed guidance suggests there could still be overlap with land. This would favor a strong storm or two, as the last lobe of large-scale ascent over the northeast Gulf spreads east. Overall potential appears too conditional to warrant an unconditional severe weather highlight, but bears watching in future outlooks. ...CA... Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible along the CA coast and inland over the Central Valley, mainly on Monday afternoon. A surface cyclone near the CA/OR coastal border will occlude late D1 and decay substantially on Monday. Secondary, but weak, cyclogenesis should occur towards Monday night off the southern CA coast as a shortwave impulse embedded within the broader eastern Pacific longwave trough approaches. Buoyancy is likely to remain quite limited, and with generally weak low-level shear, severe storms are not expected. A couple, low-topped discrete cells with weak updraft rotation are possible over the Sacramento Valley where modest southerly flow dominates. Small hail may occur. ..Grams.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the southern Plains as a mid-level trough progresses across the western Atlantic and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Monday. This upper pattern will support a weakening surface wind field over the southern Plains, suggesting that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. Elsewhere across the CONUS, either cool or moist conditions atop poorly receptive fuels should limit wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CST Sun Feb 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will traverse the Gulf Coast today, encouraging deep-layer northwesterly flow over the southern Plains. A surface low should move across eastern Texas during the late morning to afternoon hours, supporting 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds across western into far southern Texas as RH drops to 15 percent in some spots. Elevated highlights remain in place where fuel beds have received minimal rainfall over the past couple of days, and where model guidance consensus shows the best overlap of dry and windy conditions. ..Squitieri.. 02/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will track across the Gulf Coast region as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the Gulf Coast upper low, supporting surface cyclogenesis near the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture return will precede surface cyclone arrival, supporting multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the FL Peninsula through the day. Meanwhile, a surface low will also approach the CA coastline in tandem with the aforementioned mid-level trough, allowing for some low-level moisture return amid strong forcing for ascent. Adequate (albeit scant) buoyancy should materialize during the day along the CA coast, fostering some potential for isolated severe thunderstorms. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys today into tonight... The first impulse pivoting around the upper low will support surface cyclogenesis just west of the FL Peninsula at the start of the period. Low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints should return across the FL Keys into the far southern parts of the peninsula ahead of an approaching QLCS during the morning hours. 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates may overspread the modifying airmass, promoting up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE prior to QLCS arrival. Forecast soundings depict enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, with 200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH possible. As such, embedded supercell structures or mesovortices may develop within the QLCS across far southern FL into the Keys, accompanied by threats for damaging gusts and isolated tornadoes. QLCS arrival should be within the 12-16Z time frame. A sparse damaging gust/tornado threat also exists across the rest of the peninsula as the surface low and associated QLCS tracks northeast through the morning hours, though the severe threat may be limited by weaker instability. The passage of the QLCS will give way to stronger diurnal heating and airmass modification across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon hours. Guidance consensus suggests that an MCS may organize over the central Gulf and rapidly progress toward the peninsula by evening in tandem with the approach of another mid-level impulse. However, this MCS may not reach the western FL Peninsula until well after dark. Given nocturnal cooling and stabilization, questions remain regarding how strong convection will be. Still, at least a damaging gust or two is possible. ..California Coast today... Strong low-level warm-air advection, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, should transpire over CA through much of the day as a surface low approaches the coast. Strong cooling with height given the overspreading mid-level trough will steepen mid-level lapse rates to at least 7 C/km, boosting SBCAPE up to or just over 500 J/kg by afternoon. At the same time, tropospheric winds will intensify, with winds also veering and intensifying with height to support elongated, curved hodographs. Any stronger storms that can approach the CA coast during the afternoon hours and achieve supercell structures will have the best chance at producing a damaging gust or brief tornado. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will track across the Gulf Coast region as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the Gulf Coast upper low, supporting surface cyclogenesis near the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture return will precede surface cyclone arrival, supporting multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the FL Peninsula through the day. Meanwhile, a surface low will also approach the CA coastline in tandem with the aforementioned mid-level trough, allowing for some low-level moisture return amid strong forcing for ascent. Adequate (albeit scant) buoyancy should materialize during the day along the CA coast, fostering some potential for isolated severe thunderstorms. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys today into tonight... The first impulse pivoting around the upper low will support surface cyclogenesis just west of the FL Peninsula at the start of the period. Low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints should return across the FL Keys into the far southern parts of the peninsula ahead of an approaching QLCS during the morning hours. 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates may overspread the modifying airmass, promoting up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE prior to QLCS arrival. Forecast soundings depict enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, with 200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH possible. As such, embedded supercell structures or mesovortices may develop within the QLCS across far southern FL into the Keys, accompanied by threats for damaging gusts and isolated tornadoes. QLCS arrival should be within the 12-16Z time frame. A sparse damaging gust/tornado threat also exists across the rest of the peninsula as the surface low and associated QLCS tracks northeast through the morning hours, though the severe threat may be limited by weaker instability. The passage of the QLCS will give way to stronger diurnal heating and airmass modification across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon hours. Guidance consensus suggests that an MCS may organize over the central Gulf and rapidly progress toward the peninsula by evening in tandem with the approach of another mid-level impulse. However, this MCS may not reach the western FL Peninsula until well after dark. Given nocturnal cooling and stabilization, questions remain regarding how strong convection will be. Still, at least a damaging gust or two is possible. ..California Coast today... Strong low-level warm-air advection, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, should transpire over CA through much of the day as a surface low approaches the coast. Strong cooling with height given the overspreading mid-level trough will steepen mid-level lapse rates to at least 7 C/km, boosting SBCAPE up to or just over 500 J/kg by afternoon. At the same time, tropospheric winds will intensify, with winds also veering and intensifying with height to support elongated, curved hodographs. Any stronger storms that can approach the CA coast during the afternoon hours and achieve supercell structures will have the best chance at producing a damaging gust or brief tornado. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will track across the Gulf Coast region as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the Gulf Coast upper low, supporting surface cyclogenesis near the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture return will precede surface cyclone arrival, supporting multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the FL Peninsula through the day. Meanwhile, a surface low will also approach the CA coastline in tandem with the aforementioned mid-level trough, allowing for some low-level moisture return amid strong forcing for ascent. Adequate (albeit scant) buoyancy should materialize during the day along the CA coast, fostering some potential for isolated severe thunderstorms. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys today into tonight... The first impulse pivoting around the upper low will support surface cyclogenesis just west of the FL Peninsula at the start of the period. Low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints should return across the FL Keys into the far southern parts of the peninsula ahead of an approaching QLCS during the morning hours. 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates may overspread the modifying airmass, promoting up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE prior to QLCS arrival. Forecast soundings depict enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, with 200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH possible. As such, embedded supercell structures or mesovortices may develop within the QLCS across far southern FL into the Keys, accompanied by threats for damaging gusts and isolated tornadoes. QLCS arrival should be within the 12-16Z time frame. A sparse damaging gust/tornado threat also exists across the rest of the peninsula as the surface low and associated QLCS tracks northeast through the morning hours, though the severe threat may be limited by weaker instability. The passage of the QLCS will give way to stronger diurnal heating and airmass modification across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon hours. Guidance consensus suggests that an MCS may organize over the central Gulf and rapidly progress toward the peninsula by evening in tandem with the approach of another mid-level impulse. However, this MCS may not reach the western FL Peninsula until well after dark. Given nocturnal cooling and stabilization, questions remain regarding how strong convection will be. Still, at least a damaging gust or two is possible. ..California Coast today... Strong low-level warm-air advection, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, should transpire over CA through much of the day as a surface low approaches the coast. Strong cooling with height given the overspreading mid-level trough will steepen mid-level lapse rates to at least 7 C/km, boosting SBCAPE up to or just over 500 J/kg by afternoon. At the same time, tropospheric winds will intensify, with winds also veering and intensifying with height to support elongated, curved hodographs. Any stronger storms that can approach the CA coast during the afternoon hours and achieve supercell structures will have the best chance at producing a damaging gust or brief tornado. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will track across the Gulf Coast region as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the Gulf Coast upper low, supporting surface cyclogenesis near the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture return will precede surface cyclone arrival, supporting multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the FL Peninsula through the day. Meanwhile, a surface low will also approach the CA coastline in tandem with the aforementioned mid-level trough, allowing for some low-level moisture return amid strong forcing for ascent. Adequate (albeit scant) buoyancy should materialize during the day along the CA coast, fostering some potential for isolated severe thunderstorms. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys today into tonight... The first impulse pivoting around the upper low will support surface cyclogenesis just west of the FL Peninsula at the start of the period. Low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints should return across the FL Keys into the far southern parts of the peninsula ahead of an approaching QLCS during the morning hours. 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates may overspread the modifying airmass, promoting up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE prior to QLCS arrival. Forecast soundings depict enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, with 200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH possible. As such, embedded supercell structures or mesovortices may develop within the QLCS across far southern FL into the Keys, accompanied by threats for damaging gusts and isolated tornadoes. QLCS arrival should be within the 12-16Z time frame. A sparse damaging gust/tornado threat also exists across the rest of the peninsula as the surface low and associated QLCS tracks northeast through the morning hours, though the severe threat may be limited by weaker instability. The passage of the QLCS will give way to stronger diurnal heating and airmass modification across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon hours. Guidance consensus suggests that an MCS may organize over the central Gulf and rapidly progress toward the peninsula by evening in tandem with the approach of another mid-level impulse. However, this MCS may not reach the western FL Peninsula until well after dark. Given nocturnal cooling and stabilization, questions remain regarding how strong convection will be. Still, at least a damaging gust or two is possible. ..California Coast today... Strong low-level warm-air advection, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, should transpire over CA through much of the day as a surface low approaches the coast. Strong cooling with height given the overspreading mid-level trough will steepen mid-level lapse rates to at least 7 C/km, boosting SBCAPE up to or just over 500 J/kg by afternoon. At the same time, tropospheric winds will intensify, with winds also veering and intensifying with height to support elongated, curved hodographs. Any stronger storms that can approach the CA coast during the afternoon hours and achieve supercell structures will have the best chance at producing a damaging gust or brief tornado. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 02/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Feb 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late morning to early evening. A brief tornado or two will be possible along a portion of the central California coast, mainly in the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will track across the Gulf Coast region as a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the Gulf Coast upper low, supporting surface cyclogenesis near the FL Peninsula. Low-level moisture return will precede surface cyclone arrival, supporting multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the FL Peninsula through the day. Meanwhile, a surface low will also approach the CA coastline in tandem with the aforementioned mid-level trough, allowing for some low-level moisture return amid strong forcing for ascent. Adequate (albeit scant) buoyancy should materialize during the day along the CA coast, fostering some potential for isolated severe thunderstorms. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys today into tonight... The first impulse pivoting around the upper low will support surface cyclogenesis just west of the FL Peninsula at the start of the period. Low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints should return across the FL Keys into the far southern parts of the peninsula ahead of an approaching QLCS during the morning hours. 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates may overspread the modifying airmass, promoting up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE prior to QLCS arrival. Forecast soundings depict enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, with 200-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH possible. As such, embedded supercell structures or mesovortices may develop within the QLCS across far southern FL into the Keys, accompanied by threats for damaging gusts and isolated tornadoes. QLCS arrival should be within the 12-16Z time frame. A sparse damaging gust/tornado threat also exists across the rest of the peninsula as the surface low and associated QLCS tracks northeast through the morning hours, though the severe threat may be limited by weaker instability. The passage of the QLCS will give way to stronger diurnal heating and airmass modification across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon hours. Guidance consensus suggests that an MCS may organize over the central Gulf and rapidly progress toward the peninsula by evening in tandem with the approach of another mid-level impulse. However, this MCS may not reach the western FL Peninsula until well after dark. Given nocturnal cooling and stabilization, questions remain regarding how strong convection will be. Still, at least a damaging gust or two is possible. ..California Coast today... Strong low-level warm-air advection, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, should transpire over CA through much of the day as a surface low approaches the coast. Strong cooling with height given the overspreading mid-level trough will steepen mid-level lapse rates to at least 7 C/km, boosting SBCAPE up to or just over 500 J/kg by afternoon. At the same time, tropospheric winds will intensify, with winds also veering and intensifying with height to support elongated, curved hodographs. Any stronger storms that can approach the CA coast during the afternoon hours and achieve supercell structures will have the best chance at producing a damaging gust or brief tornado. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 02/04/2024 Read more