Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/28/2024 Read more