Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of south Florida and the Keys today, with a marginal tornado, damaging-gust and large-hail threat. ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern in mid/upper levels will remain highly amplified through the period, but will become more progressive again. A fairly well-stacked, cold-core cyclone now over the southeastern AL/FL Panhandle region is expected to pivot southeastward over the northeastern Gulf to central FL through 00Z, then eastward over the Atlantic tonight. This will occur as an upstream closed 500-mb high over the upper Mississippi Valley weakens and transitions into the northeastern part of a larger- scale, open-wave ridge. Meanwhile, a north/south-elongated cyclone now near the central/ northern Pacific Coast will drift eastward and become an open-wave trough. In the preceding southwesterly to southerly flow aloft, numerous small vorticity lobes and shortwaves will eject across the West Coast States, northern Rockies, Intermountain region, and Great Basin. By 12Z tomorrow, the main trough should extend over the Cascades, southward over the SFO area and Pacific, well offshore from Baja. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near AAF, with cold front arching southeastward then southward over the northeastern/extreme east-central Gulf. The low should track southeastward across the northeastern Gulf, then eastward over south-central FL through 00Z, with the front to its southeast. An outflow boundary from earlier convection was evident over the Upper Keys, and may shift northward into southernmost portions of the mainland before being overtaken by the front and/or prefrontal convection. ...South FL and Keys... In the westerlies aloft, south of the stacked cyclone, a weak shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the extreme eastern Gulf, approaching south FL and the Keys. The feature has been preceded by a band of thunderstorms with an embedded supercell. The related plume of large-scale ascent will shift eastward across the outlook area through midafternoon, supporting both the eastward shift of existing convection across the area, and the development of additional thunderstorms from Atlantic coastal areas of south FL southwestward across the Keys and adjoining waters. Deep shear and long low-level hodographs will persist across the region, beneath tight midlevel height gradient related to the cyclone. Some progs suggest localized backing of near-surface winds along coastal/convective boundaries -- such as apparent now over parts of the upper Keys and Miami-Dade County north of the outflow boundary -- can persist into a period of low-level destabilization related to both muted diabatic heating and warm advection. The thermodynamic environment -- initially hostile for surface-based parcels over mainland areas per 12Z MFL RAOB, but somewhat more favorably modified in the Keys as sampled by the KEY sounding -- also should improve through cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates. Accordingly modified forecast soundings yield MLCAPE peaking in the 500-800 J/kg range over the Keys, and around 300-500 J/kg over the southeasternmost mainland. While climatologically small for severe over FL, this buoyancy (given the favorable wind profiles and cold air aloft) will support a threat for relatively low-topped supercells and small bows, accompanied by hail and gusts near severe limits, and the possibility of a tornado where storm-scale/boundary processes can augment low-level shear locally. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of south Florida and the Keys today, with a marginal tornado, damaging-gust and large-hail threat. ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern in mid/upper levels will remain highly amplified through the period, but will become more progressive again. A fairly well-stacked, cold-core cyclone now over the southeastern AL/FL Panhandle region is expected to pivot southeastward over the northeastern Gulf to central FL through 00Z, then eastward over the Atlantic tonight. This will occur as an upstream closed 500-mb high over the upper Mississippi Valley weakens and transitions into the northeastern part of a larger- scale, open-wave ridge. Meanwhile, a north/south-elongated cyclone now near the central/ northern Pacific Coast will drift eastward and become an open-wave trough. In the preceding southwesterly to southerly flow aloft, numerous small vorticity lobes and shortwaves will eject across the West Coast States, northern Rockies, Intermountain region, and Great Basin. By 12Z tomorrow, the main trough should extend over the Cascades, southward over the SFO area and Pacific, well offshore from Baja. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near AAF, with cold front arching southeastward then southward over the northeastern/extreme east-central Gulf. The low should track southeastward across the northeastern Gulf, then eastward over south-central FL through 00Z, with the front to its southeast. An outflow boundary from earlier convection was evident over the Upper Keys, and may shift northward into southernmost portions of the mainland before being overtaken by the front and/or prefrontal convection. ...South FL and Keys... In the westerlies aloft, south of the stacked cyclone, a weak shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the extreme eastern Gulf, approaching south FL and the Keys. The feature has been preceded by a band of thunderstorms with an embedded supercell. The related plume of large-scale ascent will shift eastward across the outlook area through midafternoon, supporting both the eastward shift of existing convection across the area, and the development of additional thunderstorms from Atlantic coastal areas of south FL southwestward across the Keys and adjoining waters. Deep shear and long low-level hodographs will persist across the region, beneath tight midlevel height gradient related to the cyclone. Some progs suggest localized backing of near-surface winds along coastal/convective boundaries -- such as apparent now over parts of the upper Keys and Miami-Dade County north of the outflow boundary -- can persist into a period of low-level destabilization related to both muted diabatic heating and warm advection. The thermodynamic environment -- initially hostile for surface-based parcels over mainland areas per 12Z MFL RAOB, but somewhat more favorably modified in the Keys as sampled by the KEY sounding -- also should improve through cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates. Accordingly modified forecast soundings yield MLCAPE peaking in the 500-800 J/kg range over the Keys, and around 300-500 J/kg over the southeasternmost mainland. While climatologically small for severe over FL, this buoyancy (given the favorable wind profiles and cold air aloft) will support a threat for relatively low-topped supercells and small bows, accompanied by hail and gusts near severe limits, and the possibility of a tornado where storm-scale/boundary processes can augment low-level shear locally. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of south Florida and the Keys today, with a marginal tornado, damaging-gust and large-hail threat. ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern in mid/upper levels will remain highly amplified through the period, but will become more progressive again. A fairly well-stacked, cold-core cyclone now over the southeastern AL/FL Panhandle region is expected to pivot southeastward over the northeastern Gulf to central FL through 00Z, then eastward over the Atlantic tonight. This will occur as an upstream closed 500-mb high over the upper Mississippi Valley weakens and transitions into the northeastern part of a larger- scale, open-wave ridge. Meanwhile, a north/south-elongated cyclone now near the central/ northern Pacific Coast will drift eastward and become an open-wave trough. In the preceding southwesterly to southerly flow aloft, numerous small vorticity lobes and shortwaves will eject across the West Coast States, northern Rockies, Intermountain region, and Great Basin. By 12Z tomorrow, the main trough should extend over the Cascades, southward over the SFO area and Pacific, well offshore from Baja. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near AAF, with cold front arching southeastward then southward over the northeastern/extreme east-central Gulf. The low should track southeastward across the northeastern Gulf, then eastward over south-central FL through 00Z, with the front to its southeast. An outflow boundary from earlier convection was evident over the Upper Keys, and may shift northward into southernmost portions of the mainland before being overtaken by the front and/or prefrontal convection. ...South FL and Keys... In the westerlies aloft, south of the stacked cyclone, a weak shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the extreme eastern Gulf, approaching south FL and the Keys. The feature has been preceded by a band of thunderstorms with an embedded supercell. The related plume of large-scale ascent will shift eastward across the outlook area through midafternoon, supporting both the eastward shift of existing convection across the area, and the development of additional thunderstorms from Atlantic coastal areas of south FL southwestward across the Keys and adjoining waters. Deep shear and long low-level hodographs will persist across the region, beneath tight midlevel height gradient related to the cyclone. Some progs suggest localized backing of near-surface winds along coastal/convective boundaries -- such as apparent now over parts of the upper Keys and Miami-Dade County north of the outflow boundary -- can persist into a period of low-level destabilization related to both muted diabatic heating and warm advection. The thermodynamic environment -- initially hostile for surface-based parcels over mainland areas per 12Z MFL RAOB, but somewhat more favorably modified in the Keys as sampled by the KEY sounding -- also should improve through cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates. Accordingly modified forecast soundings yield MLCAPE peaking in the 500-800 J/kg range over the Keys, and around 300-500 J/kg over the southeasternmost mainland. While climatologically small for severe over FL, this buoyancy (given the favorable wind profiles and cold air aloft) will support a threat for relatively low-topped supercells and small bows, accompanied by hail and gusts near severe limits, and the possibility of a tornado where storm-scale/boundary processes can augment low-level shear locally. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of south Florida and the Keys today, with a marginal tornado, damaging-gust and large-hail threat. ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern in mid/upper levels will remain highly amplified through the period, but will become more progressive again. A fairly well-stacked, cold-core cyclone now over the southeastern AL/FL Panhandle region is expected to pivot southeastward over the northeastern Gulf to central FL through 00Z, then eastward over the Atlantic tonight. This will occur as an upstream closed 500-mb high over the upper Mississippi Valley weakens and transitions into the northeastern part of a larger- scale, open-wave ridge. Meanwhile, a north/south-elongated cyclone now near the central/ northern Pacific Coast will drift eastward and become an open-wave trough. In the preceding southwesterly to southerly flow aloft, numerous small vorticity lobes and shortwaves will eject across the West Coast States, northern Rockies, Intermountain region, and Great Basin. By 12Z tomorrow, the main trough should extend over the Cascades, southward over the SFO area and Pacific, well offshore from Baja. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near AAF, with cold front arching southeastward then southward over the northeastern/extreme east-central Gulf. The low should track southeastward across the northeastern Gulf, then eastward over south-central FL through 00Z, with the front to its southeast. An outflow boundary from earlier convection was evident over the Upper Keys, and may shift northward into southernmost portions of the mainland before being overtaken by the front and/or prefrontal convection. ...South FL and Keys... In the westerlies aloft, south of the stacked cyclone, a weak shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the extreme eastern Gulf, approaching south FL and the Keys. The feature has been preceded by a band of thunderstorms with an embedded supercell. The related plume of large-scale ascent will shift eastward across the outlook area through midafternoon, supporting both the eastward shift of existing convection across the area, and the development of additional thunderstorms from Atlantic coastal areas of south FL southwestward across the Keys and adjoining waters. Deep shear and long low-level hodographs will persist across the region, beneath tight midlevel height gradient related to the cyclone. Some progs suggest localized backing of near-surface winds along coastal/convective boundaries -- such as apparent now over parts of the upper Keys and Miami-Dade County north of the outflow boundary -- can persist into a period of low-level destabilization related to both muted diabatic heating and warm advection. The thermodynamic environment -- initially hostile for surface-based parcels over mainland areas per 12Z MFL RAOB, but somewhat more favorably modified in the Keys as sampled by the KEY sounding -- also should improve through cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates. Accordingly modified forecast soundings yield MLCAPE peaking in the 500-800 J/kg range over the Keys, and around 300-500 J/kg over the southeasternmost mainland. While climatologically small for severe over FL, this buoyancy (given the favorable wind profiles and cold air aloft) will support a threat for relatively low-topped supercells and small bows, accompanied by hail and gusts near severe limits, and the possibility of a tornado where storm-scale/boundary processes can augment low-level shear locally. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of south Florida and the Keys today, with a marginal tornado, damaging-gust and large-hail threat. ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern in mid/upper levels will remain highly amplified through the period, but will become more progressive again. A fairly well-stacked, cold-core cyclone now over the southeastern AL/FL Panhandle region is expected to pivot southeastward over the northeastern Gulf to central FL through 00Z, then eastward over the Atlantic tonight. This will occur as an upstream closed 500-mb high over the upper Mississippi Valley weakens and transitions into the northeastern part of a larger- scale, open-wave ridge. Meanwhile, a north/south-elongated cyclone now near the central/ northern Pacific Coast will drift eastward and become an open-wave trough. In the preceding southwesterly to southerly flow aloft, numerous small vorticity lobes and shortwaves will eject across the West Coast States, northern Rockies, Intermountain region, and Great Basin. By 12Z tomorrow, the main trough should extend over the Cascades, southward over the SFO area and Pacific, well offshore from Baja. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near AAF, with cold front arching southeastward then southward over the northeastern/extreme east-central Gulf. The low should track southeastward across the northeastern Gulf, then eastward over south-central FL through 00Z, with the front to its southeast. An outflow boundary from earlier convection was evident over the Upper Keys, and may shift northward into southernmost portions of the mainland before being overtaken by the front and/or prefrontal convection. ...South FL and Keys... In the westerlies aloft, south of the stacked cyclone, a weak shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the extreme eastern Gulf, approaching south FL and the Keys. The feature has been preceded by a band of thunderstorms with an embedded supercell. The related plume of large-scale ascent will shift eastward across the outlook area through midafternoon, supporting both the eastward shift of existing convection across the area, and the development of additional thunderstorms from Atlantic coastal areas of south FL southwestward across the Keys and adjoining waters. Deep shear and long low-level hodographs will persist across the region, beneath tight midlevel height gradient related to the cyclone. Some progs suggest localized backing of near-surface winds along coastal/convective boundaries -- such as apparent now over parts of the upper Keys and Miami-Dade County north of the outflow boundary -- can persist into a period of low-level destabilization related to both muted diabatic heating and warm advection. The thermodynamic environment -- initially hostile for surface-based parcels over mainland areas per 12Z MFL RAOB, but somewhat more favorably modified in the Keys as sampled by the KEY sounding -- also should improve through cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates. Accordingly modified forecast soundings yield MLCAPE peaking in the 500-800 J/kg range over the Keys, and around 300-500 J/kg over the southeasternmost mainland. While climatologically small for severe over FL, this buoyancy (given the favorable wind profiles and cold air aloft) will support a threat for relatively low-topped supercells and small bows, accompanied by hail and gusts near severe limits, and the possibility of a tornado where storm-scale/boundary processes can augment low-level shear locally. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of south Florida and the Keys today, with a marginal tornado, damaging-gust and large-hail threat. ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern in mid/upper levels will remain highly amplified through the period, but will become more progressive again. A fairly well-stacked, cold-core cyclone now over the southeastern AL/FL Panhandle region is expected to pivot southeastward over the northeastern Gulf to central FL through 00Z, then eastward over the Atlantic tonight. This will occur as an upstream closed 500-mb high over the upper Mississippi Valley weakens and transitions into the northeastern part of a larger- scale, open-wave ridge. Meanwhile, a north/south-elongated cyclone now near the central/ northern Pacific Coast will drift eastward and become an open-wave trough. In the preceding southwesterly to southerly flow aloft, numerous small vorticity lobes and shortwaves will eject across the West Coast States, northern Rockies, Intermountain region, and Great Basin. By 12Z tomorrow, the main trough should extend over the Cascades, southward over the SFO area and Pacific, well offshore from Baja. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near AAF, with cold front arching southeastward then southward over the northeastern/extreme east-central Gulf. The low should track southeastward across the northeastern Gulf, then eastward over south-central FL through 00Z, with the front to its southeast. An outflow boundary from earlier convection was evident over the Upper Keys, and may shift northward into southernmost portions of the mainland before being overtaken by the front and/or prefrontal convection. ...South FL and Keys... In the westerlies aloft, south of the stacked cyclone, a weak shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the extreme eastern Gulf, approaching south FL and the Keys. The feature has been preceded by a band of thunderstorms with an embedded supercell. The related plume of large-scale ascent will shift eastward across the outlook area through midafternoon, supporting both the eastward shift of existing convection across the area, and the development of additional thunderstorms from Atlantic coastal areas of south FL southwestward across the Keys and adjoining waters. Deep shear and long low-level hodographs will persist across the region, beneath tight midlevel height gradient related to the cyclone. Some progs suggest localized backing of near-surface winds along coastal/convective boundaries -- such as apparent now over parts of the upper Keys and Miami-Dade County north of the outflow boundary -- can persist into a period of low-level destabilization related to both muted diabatic heating and warm advection. The thermodynamic environment -- initially hostile for surface-based parcels over mainland areas per 12Z MFL RAOB, but somewhat more favorably modified in the Keys as sampled by the KEY sounding -- also should improve through cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates. Accordingly modified forecast soundings yield MLCAPE peaking in the 500-800 J/kg range over the Keys, and around 300-500 J/kg over the southeasternmost mainland. While climatologically small for severe over FL, this buoyancy (given the favorable wind profiles and cold air aloft) will support a threat for relatively low-topped supercells and small bows, accompanied by hail and gusts near severe limits, and the possibility of a tornado where storm-scale/boundary processes can augment low-level shear locally. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of south Florida and the Keys today, with a marginal tornado, damaging-gust and large-hail threat. ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern in mid/upper levels will remain highly amplified through the period, but will become more progressive again. A fairly well-stacked, cold-core cyclone now over the southeastern AL/FL Panhandle region is expected to pivot southeastward over the northeastern Gulf to central FL through 00Z, then eastward over the Atlantic tonight. This will occur as an upstream closed 500-mb high over the upper Mississippi Valley weakens and transitions into the northeastern part of a larger- scale, open-wave ridge. Meanwhile, a north/south-elongated cyclone now near the central/ northern Pacific Coast will drift eastward and become an open-wave trough. In the preceding southwesterly to southerly flow aloft, numerous small vorticity lobes and shortwaves will eject across the West Coast States, northern Rockies, Intermountain region, and Great Basin. By 12Z tomorrow, the main trough should extend over the Cascades, southward over the SFO area and Pacific, well offshore from Baja. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low near AAF, with cold front arching southeastward then southward over the northeastern/extreme east-central Gulf. The low should track southeastward across the northeastern Gulf, then eastward over south-central FL through 00Z, with the front to its southeast. An outflow boundary from earlier convection was evident over the Upper Keys, and may shift northward into southernmost portions of the mainland before being overtaken by the front and/or prefrontal convection. ...South FL and Keys... In the westerlies aloft, south of the stacked cyclone, a weak shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the extreme eastern Gulf, approaching south FL and the Keys. The feature has been preceded by a band of thunderstorms with an embedded supercell. The related plume of large-scale ascent will shift eastward across the outlook area through midafternoon, supporting both the eastward shift of existing convection across the area, and the development of additional thunderstorms from Atlantic coastal areas of south FL southwestward across the Keys and adjoining waters. Deep shear and long low-level hodographs will persist across the region, beneath tight midlevel height gradient related to the cyclone. Some progs suggest localized backing of near-surface winds along coastal/convective boundaries -- such as apparent now over parts of the upper Keys and Miami-Dade County north of the outflow boundary -- can persist into a period of low-level destabilization related to both muted diabatic heating and warm advection. The thermodynamic environment -- initially hostile for surface-based parcels over mainland areas per 12Z MFL RAOB, but somewhat more favorably modified in the Keys as sampled by the KEY sounding -- also should improve through cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates. Accordingly modified forecast soundings yield MLCAPE peaking in the 500-800 J/kg range over the Keys, and around 300-500 J/kg over the southeasternmost mainland. While climatologically small for severe over FL, this buoyancy (given the favorable wind profiles and cold air aloft) will support a threat for relatively low-topped supercells and small bows, accompanied by hail and gusts near severe limits, and the possibility of a tornado where storm-scale/boundary processes can augment low-level shear locally. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/05/2024 Read more

MD 0110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Areas affected...South FL and the Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051019Z - 051215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms may develop eastward across south FL and the Keys over the next few hours. Gusty winds and hail may accompany the strongest cells. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to shift eastward over the next several hours, arriving near the southwest FL coast and the Keys by around 11-12z, and spreading east across the MCD area through mid-morning. Boundary-layer moisture across the region remains modest, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 F. RAP forecast soundings also exhibit somewhat dry air aloft. This will largely limit surface-based instability, with only weak MLCAPE noted in forecast soundings and latest mesoanalysis data. Nevertheless, somewhat strong vertical shear will overspread the area through the morning hours, aiding in transient strong/organized convection. Elongated/straight hodographs, in conjunction with somewhat cold temperatures aloft and favorable storm-relative flow, suggest some potential for marginally severe hail with strongest storm cores. Locally strong gusts also may accompany this activity. Given low-level inhibition and overall poor thermodynamic environment, severe convection is expected to remain limited and a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Edwards.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 24768304 25148309 25378288 25758224 26008087 26058009 25977988 25487997 25038022 24538081 24328153 24288199 24358224 24608280 24768304 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep South starting around D5. A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However, poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep South starting around D5. A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However, poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep South starting around D5. A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However, poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep South starting around D5. A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However, poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep South starting around D5. A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However, poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep South starting around D5. A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However, poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest guidance trends suggest the persistence of a longwave trough in the mean from south-central Canada to the Southwest States into this weekend. A broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies will likely remain prevalent across the South-Central to Southeast States. This should overlap with the gradually enriching moist sector over the Gulf, yielding conditionally favorable severe potential centered on the western Gulf Coast States to the Deep South starting around D5. A parade of shortwave impulses appears probable, digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest before ejecting east. However, poor run-to-run continuity with large ensemble spread remains evident with the evolution of individual impulses. General trends with the latest 00Z cycle in deterministic guidance have been for a more suppressed northern extent of the Gulf moist sector and prominent cyclogenesis delayed until around D8. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of shortwave impulses, embedded within and ahead of the broader longwave trough in the West, will eject east-northeast across the Southwest and into the Great Plains. The more northern of these impulses should amplify over the Dakotas by 12Z Thursday. This should induce moderate cyclogenesis with the surface low tracking from the central High Plains towards the southeast SD vicinity. ...Southwest to Great Plains... Isolated thunderstorm development should initially focus near the higher terrain of the Four Corners States, as surface heating and 500-mb temperatures of -22 to -26 C yield scant buoyancy. Across the Great Plains, surface dew points should be limited to the low to mid 40s by late afternoon, as modified moisture return ensues along the TX Gulf Coast. Still, mid-level height falls and pronounced boundary-layer heating should aid in high-based/low-topped convection developing over parts of the central to southern High Plains. While SBCAPE will probably only reach 50-250 J/kg, very isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Given favorable background lower-level flow, convection-aided strong surface gusts within a dry-microburst environment are possible. This high-based convection should become elevated with eastern extent after sunset, and appears more likely to persist into Wednesday night across parts of NE/SD. ..Grams.. 02/05/2024 Read more