Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western Ohio. ...Synopsis... A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse rates. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints. ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH... Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+ kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early activity. As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through evening. ..Jewell.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES... Minor changes were made to the fire-weather highlights in the southern High Plains based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. The main change with this update was adding an Elevated area along/in the lee of the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Relative humidity is already dropping below most guidance this afternoon (mid/upper 20s RH), aided by diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and downslope warming/drying. In addition, strong low/midlevel westerly flow across the terrain will contribute to 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) this afternoon. Given that this area is west of the most substantial recent rainfall totals, fuels should be at least modestly receptive to fire spread (70th-80th percentile ERCs per Annual gridMET data). ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level closed low will shift east off the California Coast today. Ahead of this low, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest. In addition, by later in the day, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin across eastern Colorado. The combination of these factors will lead to dry and breezy conditions across much of the southern High Plains. Each day, fuels continue to dry, and more critically dry fine fuels are present. Given winds of 20 to 25 mph and 8 to 13 percent relative humidity, expect an increase in initial attack and the potential for large fires across eastern New Mexico into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. A very dry airmass is expected from eastern Alabama into central Virginia today. Relative humidity around 20 percent and sustained surface winds of 15 mph are expected. This would generally support a large-fire threat. However, these conditions are expected across a region which saw significant rainfall in the last 48-72 hours, and therefore, fuels are not dry, and the large-fire threat should remain minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 Read more