Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely today or tonight. ...Great Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... The lead portion of an upper-level trough over the Southwest Deserts/Baja vicinity will eject northeastward and reach the High Plains by evening, with strengthening southwesterly mid/high-level flow. Limited moisture ahead of a deepening surface cyclone and dual fronts will likely limit severe-convective potential, although isolated thunderstorms may develop across the central High Plains by early evening as forcing for ascent increases into the region. While boundary layer moisture and overall buoyancy will remain limited, it appears that a couple of stronger storms could occur across near the northeastward-developing surface low/triple point vicinity early this evening, potentially including some hail, while also including the potential for gusty winds near the triple point southward along the advancing cold front across Kansas. These thermodynamic scenarios currently appear too limited for severe probabilities, but observational trends/short-term guidance will be reevaluated today. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/07/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, an elongated positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to move gradually east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. There are clear predictability issues regarding the speed of the primary southern speed max and the amplitude of the wave, especially as it potentially accelerates across the Southeast Sunday/D5 or Monday/D6. In addition, models are forecasting substantial rain and thunderstorm coverage preceding any such wave, resulting in weaker instability. However, sufficient moisture and instability could develop given a possible strengthening shortwave trough, resulting in severe potential on one of those days across parts of the Southeast. A risk area could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will extend from the base of a trough across the Southwest into the eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly translate east into the Rockies through Saturday morning, as upper ridging takes place along the West Coast. Meanwhile, a wave over the upper Great Lakes will lose amplitude as it devolves into southern Ontario and Quebec, with a surface low moving across James Bay. Beneath the southwest flow regime aloft, persistent southerly winds will allow for moisture return across TX and the central Gulf Coast states, with generally upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. A slow-moving front may interact with this moistening air mass Friday night as it moving toward the ArkLaTex and lower OH Valley, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE near the front. Given the very weak lift and marginal instability, severe weather is not forecast, but a zone of thunderstorms is expected roughly from the ArkLaTex into Middle TN Friday night. Straight hodographs and front-parallel flow could aid a few small bowing structures or robust cells producing small hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 02/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the Southeast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the MS Valley today. Surface cyclone development should take place over the northern Plains, with the central Plains experiencing low-level moisture return and the central/southern High Plains receiving strong, but modestly dry westerly surface winds behind a cold front. Meanwhile, modestly dry low-level air will meander over the central Appalachians. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS given the lack of favorably overlapping strong surface winds/low RH over receptive fuels, with no fire weather highlights introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more