Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across parts of far eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley today, as a surface low moves through northwestern Minnesota. Ahead of a cold front, low-level moisture advection will occur to the southeast of the surface low across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid to upper 40s F. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the front, weak destabilization will take place along and near the moist axis from southeast Iowa into northern Illinois. During the mid to late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop near this axis and move northeastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Although MLCAPE is forecast to remain below 500 J/kg in most areas, a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km is forecast to spread over the moist sector during the afternoon. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, and strong deep-layer along the northwestern edge of an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will likely support a potential for rotating storms. Hail, strong wind gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible during the late afternoon as instability peaks. The threat could spread northeastward into the Chicago vicinity before dissipating over southern Lake Michigan during the early evening. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across parts of far eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley today, as a surface low moves through northwestern Minnesota. Ahead of a cold front, low-level moisture advection will occur to the southeast of the surface low across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid to upper 40s F. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the front, weak destabilization will take place along and near the moist axis from southeast Iowa into northern Illinois. During the mid to late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop near this axis and move northeastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Although MLCAPE is forecast to remain below 500 J/kg in most areas, a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km is forecast to spread over the moist sector during the afternoon. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, and strong deep-layer along the northwestern edge of an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will likely support a potential for rotating storms. Hail, strong wind gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible during the late afternoon as instability peaks. The threat could spread northeastward into the Chicago vicinity before dissipating over southern Lake Michigan during the early evening. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across parts of far eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley today, as a surface low moves through northwestern Minnesota. Ahead of a cold front, low-level moisture advection will occur to the southeast of the surface low across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid to upper 40s F. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the front, weak destabilization will take place along and near the moist axis from southeast Iowa into northern Illinois. During the mid to late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop near this axis and move northeastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Although MLCAPE is forecast to remain below 500 J/kg in most areas, a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km is forecast to spread over the moist sector during the afternoon. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, and strong deep-layer along the northwestern edge of an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will likely support a potential for rotating storms. Hail, strong wind gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible during the late afternoon as instability peaks. The threat could spread northeastward into the Chicago vicinity before dissipating over southern Lake Michigan during the early evening. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the continental United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels this evening, anticyclonic flow is pronounced across the eastern half of the nation, with an upper-level trough located in the Desert Southwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early this evening ahead of this trough from eastern Arizona and western New Mexico northeastward into the central High Plains. An upper-level low was also located near the coast of California. This feature will progress southeastward and move slowly inland across central California this evening. A band of rainfall is located ahead of the upper-level low. This southern end of this feature will move southeastward along the southern coast of California this evening. Some convective elements within the band near the coast may be associated with strong gusty winds. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorms are not expected through daybreak Thursday. ..Broyles.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the continental United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels this evening, anticyclonic flow is pronounced across the eastern half of the nation, with an upper-level trough located in the Desert Southwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early this evening ahead of this trough from eastern Arizona and western New Mexico northeastward into the central High Plains. An upper-level low was also located near the coast of California. This feature will progress southeastward and move slowly inland across central California this evening. A band of rainfall is located ahead of the upper-level low. This southern end of this feature will move southeastward along the southern coast of California this evening. Some convective elements within the band near the coast may be associated with strong gusty winds. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorms are not expected through daybreak Thursday. ..Broyles.. 02/08/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 7 22:32:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 7 22:32:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to continue over the western and central US through the extended forecast period. Accompanying the persistent troughing, strong mid-level flow will linger over parts of the southern Plains and South TX supporting occasional gusty winds. The most significant period of troughing will likely develop this weekend through early next week, as a deeper shortwave emerges over the Southwest. A passing surface low could support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend over parts of south TX. Otherwise, poorly receptive fuels, wet and cool conditions should keep fire-weather concerns low for much of the CONUS. ...Southern Plains and south TX D3-D6... As the second trough begins to deepen over the Southwest and southern Rockies this weekend, a developing surface low should continue to deepen across parts of west TX and the Red River. By D5/Sun the low should begin to move eastward reaching the mid to lower MS Valley. Strong surface winds behind the low are possible through the weekend and into early next week. Forecast guidance varies considerably on the timing and strength of the upper-level/surface system. However, favorable downslope trajectories would support drier and windier conditions across parts of the southern Plains, along the Rio Grande Valley and into parts of Deep South TX. Some risk for critical fire-weather conditions may develop, but there remains significant uncertainty on the availability of dry fuels in addition to the meteorological forecast discrepancies. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to continue over the western and central US through the extended forecast period. Accompanying the persistent troughing, strong mid-level flow will linger over parts of the southern Plains and South TX supporting occasional gusty winds. The most significant period of troughing will likely develop this weekend through early next week, as a deeper shortwave emerges over the Southwest. A passing surface low could support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend over parts of south TX. Otherwise, poorly receptive fuels, wet and cool conditions should keep fire-weather concerns low for much of the CONUS. ...Southern Plains and south TX D3-D6... As the second trough begins to deepen over the Southwest and southern Rockies this weekend, a developing surface low should continue to deepen across parts of west TX and the Red River. By D5/Sun the low should begin to move eastward reaching the mid to lower MS Valley. Strong surface winds behind the low are possible through the weekend and into early next week. Forecast guidance varies considerably on the timing and strength of the upper-level/surface system. However, favorable downslope trajectories would support drier and windier conditions across parts of the southern Plains, along the Rio Grande Valley and into parts of Deep South TX. Some risk for critical fire-weather conditions may develop, but there remains significant uncertainty on the availability of dry fuels in addition to the meteorological forecast discrepancies. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to continue over the western and central US through the extended forecast period. Accompanying the persistent troughing, strong mid-level flow will linger over parts of the southern Plains and South TX supporting occasional gusty winds. The most significant period of troughing will likely develop this weekend through early next week, as a deeper shortwave emerges over the Southwest. A passing surface low could support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend over parts of south TX. Otherwise, poorly receptive fuels, wet and cool conditions should keep fire-weather concerns low for much of the CONUS. ...Southern Plains and south TX D3-D6... As the second trough begins to deepen over the Southwest and southern Rockies this weekend, a developing surface low should continue to deepen across parts of west TX and the Red River. By D5/Sun the low should begin to move eastward reaching the mid to lower MS Valley. Strong surface winds behind the low are possible through the weekend and into early next week. Forecast guidance varies considerably on the timing and strength of the upper-level/surface system. However, favorable downslope trajectories would support drier and windier conditions across parts of the southern Plains, along the Rio Grande Valley and into parts of Deep South TX. Some risk for critical fire-weather conditions may develop, but there remains significant uncertainty on the availability of dry fuels in addition to the meteorological forecast discrepancies. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Mid-level troughing is expected to continue over the western and central US through the extended forecast period. Accompanying the persistent troughing, strong mid-level flow will linger over parts of the southern Plains and South TX supporting occasional gusty winds. The most significant period of troughing will likely develop this weekend through early next week, as a deeper shortwave emerges over the Southwest. A passing surface low could support localized fire-weather concerns through the weekend over parts of south TX. Otherwise, poorly receptive fuels, wet and cool conditions should keep fire-weather concerns low for much of the CONUS. ...Southern Plains and south TX D3-D6... As the second trough begins to deepen over the Southwest and southern Rockies this weekend, a developing surface low should continue to deepen across parts of west TX and the Red River. By D5/Sun the low should begin to move eastward reaching the mid to lower MS Valley. Strong surface winds behind the low are possible through the weekend and into early next week. Forecast guidance varies considerably on the timing and strength of the upper-level/surface system. However, favorable downslope trajectories would support drier and windier conditions across parts of the southern Plains, along the Rio Grande Valley and into parts of Deep South TX. Some risk for critical fire-weather conditions may develop, but there remains significant uncertainty on the availability of dry fuels in addition to the meteorological forecast discrepancies. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes have been made to the prior outlook based on observational trends. Meager moisture/buoyancy present across northeastern CO into western NE should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms, though occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible. ..Gleason.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Discussion... A progressive upper flow pattern across the U.S. is forecast to amplify with time, as a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward across Texas and New Mexico and into the Plains through tonight, while a second trough/low just off the Pacific Northwest Coast digs south-southeastward across California. The overall effect of this evolution will be a broadening of the overall cyclonic flow field, expanding to encompass essentially the entire western and central U.S. by tomorrow morning. Upstream from this feature, stout ridging will gradually shift across the eastern half of the country. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle region today, as the initial cyclonic perturbation aloft shifts northeastward. Within the evolving warm sector, showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop by late this afternoon. With that said, meager instability is anticipated, with surface dewpoints across the central and southern Plains only in the upper 30s to low 40s, and little impetus for any appreciable low-level theta-e increase. While the background flow field would otherwise support organized storms -- and indeed a stronger wind gust or small hail may occur with one or two of the more robust updrafts -- the lack of a more favorable thermodynamic environment argues against introduction of even low-probabilities/MRGL risk at this time. Elsewhere, severe storms are not expected through the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No major changes. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains with periodic strong gusts and 25-35% RH. However, area fuels remain abnormally wet and the risk for sustained fire-weather conditions appears low due to fuel considerations. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No major changes. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains with periodic strong gusts and 25-35% RH. However, area fuels remain abnormally wet and the risk for sustained fire-weather conditions appears low due to fuel considerations. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No major changes. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains with periodic strong gusts and 25-35% RH. However, area fuels remain abnormally wet and the risk for sustained fire-weather conditions appears low due to fuel considerations. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No major changes. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains with periodic strong gusts and 25-35% RH. However, area fuels remain abnormally wet and the risk for sustained fire-weather conditions appears low due to fuel considerations. ..Lyons.. 02/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify while traversing the Ohio Valley as a second upper trough ejects into the southern Plains tomorrow/Thursday. A surface low will develop along the Colorado and Kansas borders, allowing for continued moisture return across the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The combination of cool or moist low-level conditions should be common across much of the CONUS tomorrow. The one exception will be the central and southern High Plains, which should experience dry westerly downslope flow and associated Elevated equivalent surface conditions by Thursday afternoon. However, fuels in this region are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, precluding the addition of any fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more