SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in a broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will impinge on the Plains states today, encouraging surface low development along the central High Plains. While low-level moisture will continue to return northward across portions of the Plains states, downslope westerly flow along the southern High Plains will support dry and windy surface conditions during the afternoon. While these conditions may reach elevated-equivalent thresholds in spots, fuels appear poorly receptive to fire spread, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in a broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will impinge on the Plains states today, encouraging surface low development along the central High Plains. While low-level moisture will continue to return northward across portions of the Plains states, downslope westerly flow along the southern High Plains will support dry and windy surface conditions during the afternoon. While these conditions may reach elevated-equivalent thresholds in spots, fuels appear poorly receptive to fire spread, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in a broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will impinge on the Plains states today, encouraging surface low development along the central High Plains. While low-level moisture will continue to return northward across portions of the Plains states, downslope westerly flow along the southern High Plains will support dry and windy surface conditions during the afternoon. While these conditions may reach elevated-equivalent thresholds in spots, fuels appear poorly receptive to fire spread, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in a broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will impinge on the Plains states today, encouraging surface low development along the central High Plains. While low-level moisture will continue to return northward across portions of the Plains states, downslope westerly flow along the southern High Plains will support dry and windy surface conditions during the afternoon. While these conditions may reach elevated-equivalent thresholds in spots, fuels appear poorly receptive to fire spread, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in a broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will impinge on the Plains states today, encouraging surface low development along the central High Plains. While low-level moisture will continue to return northward across portions of the Plains states, downslope westerly flow along the southern High Plains will support dry and windy surface conditions during the afternoon. While these conditions may reach elevated-equivalent thresholds in spots, fuels appear poorly receptive to fire spread, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely late in the day and overnight from central Texas through the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the West, with a broad belt of southwest flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Various embedded waves will move through the southwest flow during the day, with the primary upper speed max nosing into the Southwest late. At the surface, low pressure will move northeast across Ontario, with a weak boundary extending southwestward across the lower MO Valley and toward the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Ahead of the boundary, modest southerly winds will aid moisture return, with generally mid 50s F to lower 60s F from the lower MS valley into eastern TX. Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early on Friday from the lower MS valley to the TN Valley in a region of glancing low-level warm advection. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop late in the day from the ArkLaTex toward the OH Valley, with MUCAPE generally on the order of 500 J/kg with strong vertical shear. Small hail or a few strong wind gusts may occur with any of the convection, but the overall severe risk appears minimal. Additional thunderstorms are then expected to form overnight extending southwestward across TX, as cooling aloft helps destabilize the area. Low-level lift is likely to be weak at this point, with large-scale ascent increasing into Saturday morning. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely late in the day and overnight from central Texas through the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the West, with a broad belt of southwest flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Various embedded waves will move through the southwest flow during the day, with the primary upper speed max nosing into the Southwest late. At the surface, low pressure will move northeast across Ontario, with a weak boundary extending southwestward across the lower MO Valley and toward the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Ahead of the boundary, modest southerly winds will aid moisture return, with generally mid 50s F to lower 60s F from the lower MS valley into eastern TX. Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early on Friday from the lower MS valley to the TN Valley in a region of glancing low-level warm advection. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop late in the day from the ArkLaTex toward the OH Valley, with MUCAPE generally on the order of 500 J/kg with strong vertical shear. Small hail or a few strong wind gusts may occur with any of the convection, but the overall severe risk appears minimal. Additional thunderstorms are then expected to form overnight extending southwestward across TX, as cooling aloft helps destabilize the area. Low-level lift is likely to be weak at this point, with large-scale ascent increasing into Saturday morning. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely late in the day and overnight from central Texas through the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the West, with a broad belt of southwest flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Various embedded waves will move through the southwest flow during the day, with the primary upper speed max nosing into the Southwest late. At the surface, low pressure will move northeast across Ontario, with a weak boundary extending southwestward across the lower MO Valley and toward the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Ahead of the boundary, modest southerly winds will aid moisture return, with generally mid 50s F to lower 60s F from the lower MS valley into eastern TX. Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early on Friday from the lower MS valley to the TN Valley in a region of glancing low-level warm advection. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop late in the day from the ArkLaTex toward the OH Valley, with MUCAPE generally on the order of 500 J/kg with strong vertical shear. Small hail or a few strong wind gusts may occur with any of the convection, but the overall severe risk appears minimal. Additional thunderstorms are then expected to form overnight extending southwestward across TX, as cooling aloft helps destabilize the area. Low-level lift is likely to be weak at this point, with large-scale ascent increasing into Saturday morning. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely late in the day and overnight from central Texas through the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the West, with a broad belt of southwest flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Various embedded waves will move through the southwest flow during the day, with the primary upper speed max nosing into the Southwest late. At the surface, low pressure will move northeast across Ontario, with a weak boundary extending southwestward across the lower MO Valley and toward the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Ahead of the boundary, modest southerly winds will aid moisture return, with generally mid 50s F to lower 60s F from the lower MS valley into eastern TX. Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early on Friday from the lower MS valley to the TN Valley in a region of glancing low-level warm advection. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop late in the day from the ArkLaTex toward the OH Valley, with MUCAPE generally on the order of 500 J/kg with strong vertical shear. Small hail or a few strong wind gusts may occur with any of the convection, but the overall severe risk appears minimal. Additional thunderstorms are then expected to form overnight extending southwestward across TX, as cooling aloft helps destabilize the area. Low-level lift is likely to be weak at this point, with large-scale ascent increasing into Saturday morning. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely late in the day and overnight from central Texas through the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the West, with a broad belt of southwest flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Various embedded waves will move through the southwest flow during the day, with the primary upper speed max nosing into the Southwest late. At the surface, low pressure will move northeast across Ontario, with a weak boundary extending southwestward across the lower MO Valley and toward the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Ahead of the boundary, modest southerly winds will aid moisture return, with generally mid 50s F to lower 60s F from the lower MS valley into eastern TX. Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early on Friday from the lower MS valley to the TN Valley in a region of glancing low-level warm advection. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop late in the day from the ArkLaTex toward the OH Valley, with MUCAPE generally on the order of 500 J/kg with strong vertical shear. Small hail or a few strong wind gusts may occur with any of the convection, but the overall severe risk appears minimal. Additional thunderstorms are then expected to form overnight extending southwestward across TX, as cooling aloft helps destabilize the area. Low-level lift is likely to be weak at this point, with large-scale ascent increasing into Saturday morning. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across parts of far eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley today, as a surface low moves through northwestern Minnesota. Ahead of a cold front, low-level moisture advection will occur to the southeast of the surface low across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid to upper 40s F. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the front, weak destabilization will take place along and near the moist axis from southeast Iowa into northern Illinois. During the mid to late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop near this axis and move northeastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Although MLCAPE is forecast to remain below 500 J/kg in most areas, a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km is forecast to spread over the moist sector during the afternoon. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, and strong deep-layer along the northwestern edge of an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will likely support a potential for rotating storms. Hail, strong wind gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible during the late afternoon as instability peaks. The threat could spread northeastward into the Chicago vicinity before dissipating over southern Lake Michigan during the early evening. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Feb 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across parts of far eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. ...Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley today, as a surface low moves through northwestern Minnesota. Ahead of a cold front, low-level moisture advection will occur to the southeast of the surface low across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid to upper 40s F. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the front, weak destabilization will take place along and near the moist axis from southeast Iowa into northern Illinois. During the mid to late afternoon, convection is forecast to develop near this axis and move northeastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Although MLCAPE is forecast to remain below 500 J/kg in most areas, a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km is forecast to spread over the moist sector during the afternoon. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough, and strong deep-layer along the northwestern edge of an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will likely support a potential for rotating storms. Hail, strong wind gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible during the late afternoon as instability peaks. The threat could spread northeastward into the Chicago vicinity before dissipating over southern Lake Michigan during the early evening. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 Read more
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