Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0324 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Far eastern Kansas into western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 012001Z - 012130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of all severe hazards will move into far eastern Kansas and western Missouri later this afternoon. A tornado watch is likely within the next hour. DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated in far northeast Kansas and have moved into northwest Missouri. Additional storms are likely to move into western Missouri from north-central Oklahoma/southeast Kansas over the next few hours. While timing of storm arrival in southwestern Missouri is not certain, weak convection with lightning has developed in northeastern Oklahoma and is moving northeast. That all said, the severe risk for far eastern Kansas and western Missouri will be increasing late this afternoon into the evening. Large/very-large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible. Low-level shear, particularly for southwest Missouri, will initially be weak. However, the low-level jet will increase by early evening. A tornado watch is likely within the next hour. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 38629237 37019223 36709253 36569430 36609458 36689478 37149493 37319494 39479507 39849496 40189436 40329288 39629249 38629237 Read more

MD 0322 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF OK AND NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Much of OK and Northwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 011855Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from northwest Texas across much of Oklahoma. Threat with these storms will include very large hail (3"+), strong gusts (60-80 mph), and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a triple point low about 20 miles west-northwest of END, with dryline extending southwestward from this low through southwest OK and into southwest TX. Thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of this surface low, amid persistent low-level convergence and warm-air advection. There is still some low-level stability remaining within the air mass. As such, this initial development is likely elevated, but steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear are more than sufficient for updraft organization. Large to very large (1" to 2.75") is possible with this activity. Continued low-level moisture advection and filtered heating will likely lead to gradual air mass destabilization, with additional storms developing later this afternoon along and ahead of the dryline as the shortwave (and associated ascent) continues to lift northeastward. This activity would likely be surface based and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail (3"+), strong gusts (60-80 mph), and tornadoes. A Tornado Watch will be issued soon to cover these potential hazards. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33209930 33420019 33930032 34989958 36599812 36969723 36529563 34689682 33309774 33209930 Read more

MD 0321 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Parts of west and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011913Z - 012045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential. Large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns. A watch is likely in the next 30 minutes or so. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are developing along the dryline this afternoon, and this activity will generally spread east-northeastward through the afternoon -- in conjunction with an approaching lobe of midlevel ascent. While initial storms may be high-based with a localized severe risk, the risk will gradually increase over the next few hours as storms move into moderate/strong surface-based buoyancy and rapidly increasing deep-layer shear. Generally straight hodographs will favor large to very large hail and severe winds with supercells and organized clusters. A watch is likely in the next 30 minutes or so. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31450151 32240142 32750107 33190040 33399988 33339928 33279834 32929804 32379797 31769798 31209847 31039919 30879994 30780094 31030144 31450151 Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CDS TO 15 W CSM TO 25 SW AVK TO 30 WSW P28. ..THORNTON..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-055-057-065-067- 073-075-083-087-093-103-109-137-141-149-151-080040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-151-155-173-197-207- 235-253-269-275-307-335-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-080040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this afternoon into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...Discussion... Current forecast reasoning and outlook areas remains generally in line with prior outlooks, with widespread/all-hazards severe risk from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. The main change in the current outlook update is a westward adjustment of thunder/severe probability lines across the Big Country and Concho Valley of Texas, where storms have initiated along a developing dryline a bit earlier, and farther west, than previously anticipated. Otherwise, the outlook remains largely unchanged at this time, aside from minor line tweaks to account for current convective evolution/development. ..Goss.. 04/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Embedded speed maxima (90-100+ kt 500 mb) from southern NM/far west TX to northwest Mexico will eject northeastward to OK this evening and MO overnight. An associated lee cyclone will deepen this afternoon across the TX South Plains and then progress into northwest OK this evening and the mid MS Valley by the end of the period. A broad/moist warm sector is in place from the southern Plains to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys, beneath a warm elevated mixed layer with 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. The cap will weaken through the afternoon from the west, with thunderstorm initiation becoming likely by mid afternoon along a surface front from KS into MO/IL, and mid-late afternoon along the dryline from western/central OK into northwest TX. ...KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight... Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon along the baroclinic zone from KS into MO, and storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN. The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible. Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations. ...OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight... The elevated mixed layer and associated cap, along with widespread clouds, will tend to delay surface-based storm development until mid-late afternoon, when forcing for ascent increases from the southwest with the approach of the mid-upper jet streak. By about 21z, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, in an environment with very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain, given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight. However, given the very strong flow and seasonably rich low-level moisture, there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight. Read more