Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A broad surface low will start to develop across the southern High Plains on Saturday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of Far West Texas. However, at this time the stronger winds are forecast to remain across northern Mexico. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted at this time. However, fuels in this region are starting to dry with near-normal ERC values. Therefore, if wind forecasts increase across parts of Far West Texas, an Elevated area may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong but compact mid-level jet streak will move across the Texas Panhandle today. Ahead of this jet streak, a weak surface low will develop across southern Kansas. The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and strong flow above a deeply mixed airmass will lead to windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle into the OK Panhandle and western Oklahoma this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is expected to be in the teens. While this technically reaches critical meteorological thresholds, fuels are not receptive to large fire with above-normal ERC percentiles and light to moderate precipitation across this area in the past 48 hours. There may be some increase in initial attack across the region, but the risk of large fire remains low and therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging wind gusts, hail and a marginal tornado threat, will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves through a trough in northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into south-central and southeast Texas. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the day on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the southeast of the front is forecast to contribute to weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg by afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear forecast in the 60 to 70 knot range (evident on forecast soundings), should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across south-central and southeast Texas. The hail threat should be concentrated a bit further west over the southern Texas Hill Country where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Two negative factors on Saturday include the weak destabilization and a poorly timed shortwave, which is forecast to move away from the region on Saturday. For these reasons, any severe threat over south-central and southeast Texas is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging wind gusts, hail and a marginal tornado threat, will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves through a trough in northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into south-central and southeast Texas. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the day on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the southeast of the front is forecast to contribute to weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg by afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear forecast in the 60 to 70 knot range (evident on forecast soundings), should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across south-central and southeast Texas. The hail threat should be concentrated a bit further west over the southern Texas Hill Country where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Two negative factors on Saturday include the weak destabilization and a poorly timed shortwave, which is forecast to move away from the region on Saturday. For these reasons, any severe threat over south-central and southeast Texas is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging wind gusts, hail and a marginal tornado threat, will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves through a trough in northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into south-central and southeast Texas. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the day on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the southeast of the front is forecast to contribute to weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg by afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear forecast in the 60 to 70 knot range (evident on forecast soundings), should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across south-central and southeast Texas. The hail threat should be concentrated a bit further west over the southern Texas Hill Country where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Two negative factors on Saturday include the weak destabilization and a poorly timed shortwave, which is forecast to move away from the region on Saturday. For these reasons, any severe threat over south-central and southeast Texas is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging wind gusts, hail and a marginal tornado threat, will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves through a trough in northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into south-central and southeast Texas. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the day on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the southeast of the front is forecast to contribute to weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg by afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear forecast in the 60 to 70 knot range (evident on forecast soundings), should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across south-central and southeast Texas. The hail threat should be concentrated a bit further west over the southern Texas Hill Country where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Two negative factors on Saturday include the weak destabilization and a poorly timed shortwave, which is forecast to move away from the region on Saturday. For these reasons, any severe threat over south-central and southeast Texas is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated damaging wind gusts, hail and a marginal tornado threat, will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Saturday, as an associated 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves through a trough in northwestern Mexico. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into south-central and southeast Texas. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development during the day on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the southeast of the front is forecast to contribute to weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg by afternoon. This, combined with 0-6 km shear forecast in the 60 to 70 knot range (evident on forecast soundings), should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible across south-central and southeast Texas. The hail threat should be concentrated a bit further west over the southern Texas Hill Country where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper. Two negative factors on Saturday include the weak destabilization and a poorly timed shortwave, which is forecast to move away from the region on Saturday. For these reasons, any severe threat over south-central and southeast Texas is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms are possible from the Arkansas region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Hail is the greatest concern with this activity. ...Northeast TX to Lower MS Valley... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over the Four Corners region moving northeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to eject across the southern Rockies and deamplify over KS as 500mb speed max translates into the mid MS Valley. This evolution will result in weak/negligible height changes over the MRGL risk region, though strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be noted through the period. At the surface, a very weak surface low will track along a surface front that will be draped across this region. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development. Surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s across the Coastal Plain of TX into extreme southern AR. Gradual moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, and lower 60s should advance a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, CINH should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by 21-22z across southeast OK/northeast TX into southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the aforementioned weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a corridor from northeast TX into western KY. The greatest risk with this activity should be hail, especially if a few supercells evolve. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms are possible from the Arkansas region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Hail is the greatest concern with this activity. ...Northeast TX to Lower MS Valley... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over the Four Corners region moving northeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to eject across the southern Rockies and deamplify over KS as 500mb speed max translates into the mid MS Valley. This evolution will result in weak/negligible height changes over the MRGL risk region, though strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be noted through the period. At the surface, a very weak surface low will track along a surface front that will be draped across this region. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development. Surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s across the Coastal Plain of TX into extreme southern AR. Gradual moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, and lower 60s should advance a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, CINH should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by 21-22z across southeast OK/northeast TX into southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the aforementioned weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a corridor from northeast TX into western KY. The greatest risk with this activity should be hail, especially if a few supercells evolve. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms are possible from the Arkansas region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Hail is the greatest concern with this activity. ...Northeast TX to Lower MS Valley... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over the Four Corners region moving northeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to eject across the southern Rockies and deamplify over KS as 500mb speed max translates into the mid MS Valley. This evolution will result in weak/negligible height changes over the MRGL risk region, though strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be noted through the period. At the surface, a very weak surface low will track along a surface front that will be draped across this region. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development. Surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s across the Coastal Plain of TX into extreme southern AR. Gradual moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, and lower 60s should advance a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, CINH should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by 21-22z across southeast OK/northeast TX into southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the aforementioned weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a corridor from northeast TX into western KY. The greatest risk with this activity should be hail, especially if a few supercells evolve. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms are possible from the Arkansas region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Hail is the greatest concern with this activity. ...Northeast TX to Lower MS Valley... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over the Four Corners region moving northeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to eject across the southern Rockies and deamplify over KS as 500mb speed max translates into the mid MS Valley. This evolution will result in weak/negligible height changes over the MRGL risk region, though strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be noted through the period. At the surface, a very weak surface low will track along a surface front that will be draped across this region. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development. Surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s across the Coastal Plain of TX into extreme southern AR. Gradual moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, and lower 60s should advance a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, CINH should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by 21-22z across southeast OK/northeast TX into southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the aforementioned weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a corridor from northeast TX into western KY. The greatest risk with this activity should be hail, especially if a few supercells evolve. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms are possible from the Arkansas region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Hail is the greatest concern with this activity. ...Northeast TX to Lower MS Valley... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over the Four Corners region moving northeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to eject across the southern Rockies and deamplify over KS as 500mb speed max translates into the mid MS Valley. This evolution will result in weak/negligible height changes over the MRGL risk region, though strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be noted through the period. At the surface, a very weak surface low will track along a surface front that will be draped across this region. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development. Surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s across the Coastal Plain of TX into extreme southern AR. Gradual moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, and lower 60s should advance a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, CINH should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by 21-22z across southeast OK/northeast TX into southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the aforementioned weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a corridor from northeast TX into western KY. The greatest risk with this activity should be hail, especially if a few supercells evolve. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms are possible from the Arkansas region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley. Hail is the greatest concern with this activity. ...Northeast TX to Lower MS Valley... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over the Four Corners region moving northeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to eject across the southern Rockies and deamplify over KS as 500mb speed max translates into the mid MS Valley. This evolution will result in weak/negligible height changes over the MRGL risk region, though strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will be noted through the period. At the surface, a very weak surface low will track along a surface front that will be draped across this region. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development. Surface dew points have risen into the lower 60s across the Coastal Plain of TX into extreme southern AR. Gradual moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, and lower 60s should advance a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, CINH should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by 21-22z across southeast OK/northeast TX into southwest AR. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the aforementioned weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a corridor from northeast TX into western KY. The greatest risk with this activity should be hail, especially if a few supercells evolve. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/09/2024 Read more