Severe Storms

MD 1132 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN LA AND THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...northern LA and the Ark-La-Tex region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172213Z - 180015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible in the next few hours across northern LA and the Ark-La-Tex region. DISCUSSION...Congested cumulus and isolated areas of deeper convective development are currently observed across the Ark-La-Tex region. A broad effective front is draped from west-northwest to east-southeast through the area, with temperatures generally in the mid-/upper-90s and dewpoints around 80 degrees F. These conditions are contributing to extreme instability with MLCAPE around 5500-6000+ J/kg. As a result, vigorous updraft development could occur in the next hour or two, which could mature into at least transient supercell structures given 45-55 kts of bulk shear. Should this occur, a threat for damaging wind gusts and very large hail would materialize. Such a scenario is captured in some recent high-resolution guidance, but storm strength and lifetimes may be stifled by an approaching mid-level ridge. Ongoing convective trends will continue to be monitored during the next couple of hours. ..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31209335 31609412 32099470 32599505 33079478 33299424 33229335 32939243 32649175 32179120 31559132 31019170 30969258 31209335 Read more

MD 1131 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...Central and North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325... Valid 172151Z - 172345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across the southeast part of WW 325, and spread east and northeastward across north-central Texas over the next few hours. As the storms approach the edge of the watch, new watch issuance will become likely further east across parts of north and central Texas. DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D high-resolution radar from San Angelo shows a cluster of supercells in north-central Texas. The storms are located on the western edge of a broad moist sector. Surface dewpoints across north and central Texas are mostly in the lower to in 70s F, with the RAP analyzing strong instability (MLCAPE from 4000 to 5000 J/kg). These storms are expected to develop east and northeastward along a thermal axis where surface temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s F near and to the south of the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth has a supercell wind profile with 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are very steep, exceeding 9.0 C/km across much of the area. The environment will be favorable for large hail and wind damage, especially with supercells. As cell coverage gradually expands, the wind-damage threat could increase, especially if a cold pool can begin to organize. ..Broyles.. 06/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32249983 31569961 31429889 31549810 31949758 32709745 33669758 33969820 33839893 33549931 32929964 32249983 Read more

MD 1130 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 326... FOR WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...western IA and eastern NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326... Valid 172148Z - 172345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326 continues. SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat continues in WW326 across western IA and eastern NE. Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible as storms continue to develop and strengthen this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the last couple of hours across WW326 as a mid-level shortwave overspreads the region. Diurnal heating, warm/moist advection, and steep lapse rates currently support MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Bulk shear has been more limited, around 25 kts per current VAD profiles. However, as the shortwave propagates east-northeastward, 30-40-kt mid-level flow (currently observed at KOAX) will yield gradually strengthening shear profiles. This should support stronger updraft cores with convection developing and maturing in this area over the next couple of hours. The main threats will be isolated damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to around 1.5". The risk for these hazards should peak in the next few hours before sunset and then decrease relatively quickly thereafter as the shortwave overruns any nocturnally diminishing surface instability. ..Flournoy.. 06/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41879640 42449650 42849610 43349565 43439504 43289440 42619401 41499403 40839420 40669470 40669540 41119611 41879640 Read more

WW 0328 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0328 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 328 SEVERE TSTM KS 172145Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 328 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Kansas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A QLCS over eastern Colorado will sweep east with the northern portion eventually outpacing greater instability to the south. The greatest threat for significant severe wind gusts will be across southwest Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Goodland KS to 15 miles south southeast of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323...WW 324...WW 325...WW 326...WW 327... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0327 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0327 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 327 TORNADO KS OK TX 172135Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far southwest Kansas Western Oklahoma and Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A QLCS will sweep east from southeast Colorado and the Raton Mesa, with a few discrete supercells expected ahead of it in the Panhandles to western Oklahoma. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Liberal KS to 45 miles southwest of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323...WW 324...WW 325...WW 326... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Grams Read more

WW 0326 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 326 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/17/23 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 326 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-015-021-025-027-029-035-039-041-047-049-053-059- 063-071-073-077-085-091-093-109-121-129-133-137-141-145-147-149- 151-155-159-161-165-173-175-187-193-172240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON BOONE BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CHEROKEE CLARKE CLAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DECATUR DICKINSON EMMET FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MADISON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN PAGE PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY TAYLOR UNION WEBSTER WOODBURY NEC021-025-043-055-131-153-173-177-172240- NE Read more

WW 326 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 172010Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to form across the watch area. These storms will move slowly northeastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado until sunset. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Spencer IA to 30 miles east southeast of Shenandoah IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323...WW 324...WW 325... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0324 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE TAD TO 25 NNW LIC. ..LYONS..06/17/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-089-099-172240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0325 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 325 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/17/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 325 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC033-057-065-141-172240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTON HARMON JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-045-049-059-075-077-081-083-093-095-101-107-125-133- 143-151-153-155-169-191-197-207-235-237-253-263-269-275-307-333- 345-353-363-399-411-417-429-431-433-441-447-451-485-487-503- 172240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BRISCOE BROWN CALLAHAN CHILDRESS CLAY COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS EASTLAND ERATH FISHER FLOYD FOARD GARZA HALL HARDEMAN HASKELL IRION JACK JONES KENT Read more

WW 324 SEVERE TSTM CO 171820Z - 180200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move off the mountains this afternoon while other isolated supercells form farther east. Very large hail and damaging winds will be possible with this activity. A tornado or two is also possible - mainly in the eastern parts of the watch. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Pueblo CO to 35 miles east northeast of Lamar CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 325 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 171955Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma West Central Texas Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Intense severe thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon and early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail will eventually also pose a risk of signification wind damage as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east southeast of San Angelo TX to 30 miles northeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323...WW 324... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0323 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 323 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/17/23 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 323 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-035-039-053-061-069-097-099-129-131-172240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-091- 113-123-129-131-133-172240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA TAYLOR WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON Read more

WW 323 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA MS CW 171755Z - 180100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon across the watch area. A few supercells are possible, capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Pine Belt MS to 60 miles east southeast of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1129 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 172051Z - 172245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline over the next 1 to 2 hours, with large to very large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes possible. Trends will continue to be monitored and a watch is likely in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorm development is likely to occur along a dryline that extends through the central Texas Panhandle north across the western OK Panhandle over the next couple of hours, within a moderate-strongly unstable environment and 50-60 kts of westerly deep-layer shear. Large to very large hail will be possible given very steep mid-level lapse rates and considerable CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer, and damaging gusts will also be possible. Some potential will exist for low-level rotation and a tornado or two as low-level hodographs become more favorable towards early evening. With time, storms are likely to merge into an eastward-moving MCS capable of all severe hazards and an increasing risk for significant severe wind gusts. Short-term trends will continue to be monitored and a watch will likely be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 34869874 34750020 34810105 35230128 35710144 36140210 36560278 37100289 37580238 37830191 37860109 37760053 37619996 37259937 36589894 35829864 34869874 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging gusts, large hail, or tornadoes, are possible over a vast area from Colorado to Florida, and central Texas to the lower Missouri Valley. One or more damaging wind swaths may occur across the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. ...20Z update... The enhanced risk was expanded southward and eastward to cover much of northern Texas into the lower MS Valley. An elongated west-to-east corridor of strong to potentially extreme instability is becoming established, from parts of western TX into MS, with the latest mesoanalysis showing up to 5000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots, with nearly the entire southern CONUS overspread by strong mid-level flow and associated 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. At least one or more MCSs are expected to develop from upscale-growing supercells and/or multicellular clusters tonight, and rapidly propagate eastward in the aforementioned favorable environment. Some high resolution guidance shows one MCS traversing central/northern OK, with another MCS moving across northern/central TX into the lower MS Valley. Any of the MCSs that organize will have the potential to produce an extensive swath of damaging gusts, and at least a few instances of 65+ kt gusts are possible. Still, details in MCS evolution, from northern OK, to central TX, remains nebulous, and it is unclear which MCS would dominate and have the potential to become long-lived. As such, within the broader Category 3/Enhanced risk area, there may be a gap in severe potential. Similarly, confidence is also too low to introduce Category 4/Moderate Risk probabilities this outlook. Nonetheless, the existence of a widespread area of favorably overlapping strong shear/CAPE poised to experience scattered severe storms with some upscale growth suggests that broader Enhanced-Risk probabilities are warranted. Significant-severe hail probabilities in the Southeast were extended farther west into southern MS to account for the possibility of 2+ inch diameter hail occurring with ongoing supercells in central/southern MS. Here, MRMS mosaic radar data shows MESH cores already approaching 2 inches in spots. The rest of the outlook remains largely on track, with only slight adjustments made to probabilities to reflect the latest observations or guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 06/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023/ ...Southeast CO to Arkansas... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southwest CO. This feature will cross the Rockies and begin affecting the High Plains this afternoon, promoting scattered thunderstorms off the high terrain and foothills. Initial supercell storms over southeast CO will be in a region of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE, favorable for large hail. As activity moves/builds eastward into southwest KS, the northern TX Panhandle, and northwest OK, it will encounter high CAPE values and increasingly strong low-level winds. Supercells with very large hail, significant wind damage potential, and a few tornadoes may affect this area during the evening. Upscale growth of this cluster of storms into a fast-moving bowing complex remains likely, with activity moving across northern OK into northwest AR tonight. ...North TX... A 50-60 knot westerly mid-level jet max is accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough over CO. This wind max will move across the TX Panhandle this evening, with enhanced forcing for ascent affecting the dryline over west TX. This will lead to rapid supercell development in a very moist and unstable environment. Very large hail and damaging winds are expected with the stronger cells. Several CAM solutions favor splitting supercells, with left-movers tracking northeastward toward the Red River through the evening with a continued risk of significant severe. Therefore have extended the ENH risk into these areas. ...MS/AL/FL... Morning model guidance shows a subtle shortwave trough currently over west TN tracking southeastward into AL, with an associated 40-50 knot mid-level wind max moving across MS. Strong daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer ahead of these features should result in scattered severe thunderstorm development by mid afternoon over parts of southeast MS, southern AL, and the FL Panhandle. Given the strength of the deep-layer shear, supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected. A tornado or two is also possible as the storms approach the coast late this afternoon. Activity should move offshore after dark. ...Western IA... A well-defined remnant MCV is noted this morning over central/eastern NE. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this circulation will maintain near 70F dewpoints over western IA, where strong heating is occurring. This should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized multicell or occasional supercell storms capable of hail and damaging winds. Therefore have added a SLGT risk to this region for this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO....... Updates to the D2 Fire Weather outlook include the addition of a Critical delineation across far eastern Arizona into southern New Mexico. Winds on Sunday will likely approach Critical thresholds across much of the Elevated region. The Critical area was weighted toward HREF ensemble guidance for conditional probability of Critical fire weather conditions overlapping ERCs within the 90th percentile. The Elevated delineation was extended into the Little Colorado River Valley in northern Arizona where near Critical conditions will be possible. Fuels within this region are around the 75th percentile. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a closed upper-level low is forecast to sag southward over the Pacific Northwest while moderate zonal flow aloft prevails over the Southwest. As a result, the surface pattern and airmass will remain largely unchanged from previous days. Daytime heating will promote boundary-layer mixing and deepening, resulting in afternoon RH values falling below 10 percent and sustained afternoon surface winds approaching 20 mph. An area has been delineated over southern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico, where fuels are sufficiently dry for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from portions of the Ozarks to the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging gusts and large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) will be the main hazard with these storms. A severe gust or two may also occur across eastern Montana. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley as a second (longer-wave) upper trough deepens across the Interior West tomorrow/Sunday. Low-level warm-air advection will continue to transport ample low-level moisture to a northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone draped across the Lower MS Valley, which will be reinforced by ongoing convection at the start of the period. Overspreading this baroclinic zone and axis of low-level moisture advection will be an elevated mixed layer/steep mid-level lapse rates, which will promote strong buoyancy. The combination of persistent deep-layer ascent, buoyancy, and adequate vertical shear across the Lower MS Valley will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. Meanwhile, scant buoyancy preceding very strong ascent across portions of eastern Montana may promote strong storm development. ...Lower MS Valley... A complex scenario is expected for the Lower MS Valley region, as multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are expected, with each round likely influencing the intensity, placement, and timing of subsequent rounds of convection. One or more remnant MCSs from the Day 1 period are expected to be ongoing at the start of the day (12Z Sunday) across the Lower MS Valley, possibly accompanied by severe wind gusts. As this MCS(s) outpace the stronger buoyancy and dissipate near the Gulf Coast, surface heating should occur the Arklatex vicinity as 8+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates overspreads the region. By afternoon, these lapse rates overspreading greater than 80/70 F surface temperatures/dewpoints will yield well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong mid-level flow overspreading the Lower MS Valley will also support elongated hodographs, with over 40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. As such, re-invigoration or redevelopment of convection should occur, with supercells producing large hail the initial mode. Given the steep lapse rates/strong buoyancy and length of the upper-level hodographs, 2+ inch diameter hail is possible. Storms are also likely to grow upscale into the evening hours, with severe gusts likely with any bowing segments that can materialize. Given the uncertainty in placement and timing of earlier rounds of storms, confidence is too low to point out potentially more focused corridors of widespread severe wind potential. ...Florida Peninsula... As remnant outflow boundaries/cold pools continue to surge southward across the Gulf from earlier (Day 1) storms, strong surface heating ahead of these outflow boundaries will serve as the impetus for renewed convective development. By late morning/early afternoon, strong storms should develop amid rich low-level moisture, but mediocre lapse rates (hence tall/thin SBCAPE profiles). Given weak to modest upper flow/shear, the stronger storms should be multicellular in nature, posing a threat for an instance or two of severe wind/hail. ...Central Texas... Limited lift ahead of a surface front will encourage isolated thunderstorm development across central TX by afternoon peak heating. However, surface dewpoints well over 70 F, overspread by 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates and strong mid-level flow, will encourage the development of isolated, splitting supercells. Severe wind and hail should accompany any storm that can mature and become sustained. Lower confidence in greater storm coverage/longevity precludes the addition of greater severe probabilities (including significant severe) at this time. ...Eastern Montana... Ahead of the approaching upper trough, steep low-level lapse rates will promote scant (but potentially adequate) buoyancy to support isolated thunderstorm development by afternoon. Efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft may encourage a severe gust or two with any of the stronger storms that manage to develop. ..Squitieri.. 06/17/2023 Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/16/23 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...MEG...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-007-023-025-035-047-053-057-063-065-075-091-097-099-105- 107-119-125-129-131-162340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA FAYETTE GREENE HALE LAMAR MARENGO MOBILE MONROE PERRY PICKENS SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-113-162340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA MSC007-013-015-017-019-023-025-031-035-039-041-043-045-047-059- 061-067-069-071-073-075-079-081-087-095-097-099-101-103-105-107- 109-111-115-123-129-131-145-153-155-159-161-162340- Read more