Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0329 ..WEINMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-061-079- 083-101-115-117-119-121-133-135-137-139-149-159-163-167-171-173- 189-020140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PIKE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCOTT SHELBY WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-105-113-125-127-135-137-139- 151-161-163-169-173-183-189-205-219-221-510-020140- MO Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CNU TO 45 N COU. ..WEINMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-021-037-020140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-013-015-029-039-043-053-057-059-077-083-085-089-097- 109-119-131-141-145-159-167-185-209-213-217-020140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN COOPER DADE DALLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY HOWARD JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON PETTIS POLK ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE JCT TO 10 ESE BWD TO 20 SSE MWL TO 40 N MWL TO 15 SSE SPS. ..BENTLEY..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-085-093-113-139-143-147-193-217-221-251-333-367-425-439- 020340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COLLIN COMANCHE DALLAS ELLIS ERATH FANNIN HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON MILLS PARKER SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more