Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND PARTS OF WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity on Sunday. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough within the Southwest will shift eastward through the day Sunday. While some intensification of this feature is expected with time, this will occur very late in the period towards Monday morning. At the surface, a moist airmass will be present across southeast Texas into parts of the Southeast. Surface dewpoints are currently in the low/mid 60s F within these regions and this should be maintained as a modest surface low moves northeast toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity by Monday morning. ...Southeast Texas into Louisiana/Mississippi/western Alabama... Some convection may be ongoing early in the period within parts of eastern Texas close to the upper-level trough and cold front. Some weaker activity is also possible along the slowly lifting warm front in Louisiana/Mississippi. Though cloud cover will be present in the warm sector, some broken areas of heating are possible with MLCAPE reaching around 1000 J/kg in some locations. Weak forcing for ascent should mean storm initiation will hold off until the afternoon. The most likely area for storm initiation will be in southeastern Texas with lesser certainty farther east along the surface boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear values of 50-60 kts will allow storms to organize into a mix of supercells and line segments. Large hail and damaging winds will generally be the most likely hazards. Low-level wind fields are not expected to be overly strong given the muted surface response to the trough. However, some increase in 850 mb winds will occur during the evening in parts of central/southern Mississippi which could leave a brief window for locally greater tornado potential between 00-03Z. North of the surface boundary, storms will be elevated, but long hodographs and sufficient buoyancy will still allow for isolated large hail potential. Weaker mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy with eastward extent should keep the severe threat more marginal into eastern Alabama/far western Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND PARTS OF WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity on Sunday. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough within the Southwest will shift eastward through the day Sunday. While some intensification of this feature is expected with time, this will occur very late in the period towards Monday morning. At the surface, a moist airmass will be present across southeast Texas into parts of the Southeast. Surface dewpoints are currently in the low/mid 60s F within these regions and this should be maintained as a modest surface low moves northeast toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity by Monday morning. ...Southeast Texas into Louisiana/Mississippi/western Alabama... Some convection may be ongoing early in the period within parts of eastern Texas close to the upper-level trough and cold front. Some weaker activity is also possible along the slowly lifting warm front in Louisiana/Mississippi. Though cloud cover will be present in the warm sector, some broken areas of heating are possible with MLCAPE reaching around 1000 J/kg in some locations. Weak forcing for ascent should mean storm initiation will hold off until the afternoon. The most likely area for storm initiation will be in southeastern Texas with lesser certainty farther east along the surface boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear values of 50-60 kts will allow storms to organize into a mix of supercells and line segments. Large hail and damaging winds will generally be the most likely hazards. Low-level wind fields are not expected to be overly strong given the muted surface response to the trough. However, some increase in 850 mb winds will occur during the evening in parts of central/southern Mississippi which could leave a brief window for locally greater tornado potential between 00-03Z. North of the surface boundary, storms will be elevated, but long hodographs and sufficient buoyancy will still allow for isolated large hail potential. Weaker mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy with eastward extent should keep the severe threat more marginal into eastern Alabama/far western Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND PARTS OF WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity on Sunday. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough within the Southwest will shift eastward through the day Sunday. While some intensification of this feature is expected with time, this will occur very late in the period towards Monday morning. At the surface, a moist airmass will be present across southeast Texas into parts of the Southeast. Surface dewpoints are currently in the low/mid 60s F within these regions and this should be maintained as a modest surface low moves northeast toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity by Monday morning. ...Southeast Texas into Louisiana/Mississippi/western Alabama... Some convection may be ongoing early in the period within parts of eastern Texas close to the upper-level trough and cold front. Some weaker activity is also possible along the slowly lifting warm front in Louisiana/Mississippi. Though cloud cover will be present in the warm sector, some broken areas of heating are possible with MLCAPE reaching around 1000 J/kg in some locations. Weak forcing for ascent should mean storm initiation will hold off until the afternoon. The most likely area for storm initiation will be in southeastern Texas with lesser certainty farther east along the surface boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear values of 50-60 kts will allow storms to organize into a mix of supercells and line segments. Large hail and damaging winds will generally be the most likely hazards. Low-level wind fields are not expected to be overly strong given the muted surface response to the trough. However, some increase in 850 mb winds will occur during the evening in parts of central/southern Mississippi which could leave a brief window for locally greater tornado potential between 00-03Z. North of the surface boundary, storms will be elevated, but long hodographs and sufficient buoyancy will still allow for isolated large hail potential. Weaker mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy with eastward extent should keep the severe threat more marginal into eastern Alabama/far western Georgia. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 02/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across northern New Mexico today as a strong mid-level jet digs into the region and a surface low develops in the southern High Plains. Some Elevated wind/relative humidity may extend into the Texas Big Bend, but given marginally dry fuels, no Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere, cool and/or moist conditions are expected and fire-weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a tornado or two are expected from Texas to Mississippi through this evening, and especially across central Texas overnight. ...Central TX to the lower MS Valley through tonight... Within the subtropical jet, embedded speed maxima will eject east-northeastward today from TX to the Mid-South/TN Valley, while the primary upstream trough moves from AZ this morning to west TX by early Sunday. A weak surface wave (associated with the ejecting speed maxima) will move east-northeastward along a stalled front into east central TX this afternoon and the Mid-South tonight. Some convection is ongoing north of San Antonio to the immediate cool side of the front - storms may persist through the day in the warm advection zone north of the boundary, and additional storms should form this afternoon along the surface front. A mix of clusters/supercells will be capable of producing occasional large hail north of the front, and hail/wind along the boundary. An isolated tornado may also occur with surface-based storms along the front. Later tonight, additional storm development is expected across central TX as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the primary shortwave trough from NM/west TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km), MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and strong deep-layer vertical shear/long hodographs will favor clusters of supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage. Much of this convection will be elevated, but the southern-most storms along the surface front may also pose some threat for an isolated tornado. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and some tornado threat are expected especially across parts of Texas this afternoon and tonight, with other severe storms possible toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on a more isolated basis. ...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... A prominent upper trough over the Southwest Deserts early today will continue northeastward over the southern Rockies as it takes on an increasingly positive tilt through tonight. Semi-phased polar/tropical jets will generally result in strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds across much of the southern tier of the CONUS, as these winds will largely overlie and be parallel to a frontal zone extending from west/south Texas northeastward to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Convection will be common along/north of this frontal zone for much of the period, but a gradual increase in thunderstorms and intensity are expected across the middle part of Texas into mid/late afternoon through early evening, with an additional round of thunderstorm intensification expected late tonight across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Strong deep-layer shear, highlighted by very long/semi-straight hodographs in the cloud-bearing layer, will support supercells, some of which could produce very large hail on a localized basis, especially with this evening's storms. Some damaging wind/tornado risk may also exist with storms occurring in closer proximity to the front, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong. Farther east, other more isolated/episodic severe storms will be possible as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley in vicinity of the effective front, with severe storms most probable across this region this evening into the overnight as frontal wave development occurs across the region and southwesterly 1-3km AGL winds strengthen. This could include at least some potential for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and some tornado threat are expected especially across parts of Texas this afternoon and tonight, with other severe storms possible toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on a more isolated basis. ...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... A prominent upper trough over the Southwest Deserts early today will continue northeastward over the southern Rockies as it takes on an increasingly positive tilt through tonight. Semi-phased polar/tropical jets will generally result in strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds across much of the southern tier of the CONUS, as these winds will largely overlie and be parallel to a frontal zone extending from west/south Texas northeastward to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Convection will be common along/north of this frontal zone for much of the period, but a gradual increase in thunderstorms and intensity are expected across the middle part of Texas into mid/late afternoon through early evening, with an additional round of thunderstorm intensification expected late tonight across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Strong deep-layer shear, highlighted by very long/semi-straight hodographs in the cloud-bearing layer, will support supercells, some of which could produce very large hail on a localized basis, especially with this evening's storms. Some damaging wind/tornado risk may also exist with storms occurring in closer proximity to the front, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong. Farther east, other more isolated/episodic severe storms will be possible as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley in vicinity of the effective front, with severe storms most probable across this region this evening into the overnight as frontal wave development occurs across the region and southwesterly 1-3km AGL winds strengthen. This could include at least some potential for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/10/2024 Read more