Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024 Read more

MD 0119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Areas affected...Parts of south-central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110328Z - 110530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out as a convective line moves eastward late this evening. DISCUSSION...Modest intensification of a convective cluster and embedded line segment has been noted over the last hour, to the west of Jackson, MS. Despite warm late evening conditions and dewpoints in the low 60s F, weak lapse rates are limiting instability across the region, with MLCAPE likely less than 300 J/kg along/downstream of the line. However, recent lightning activity suggests that convection has deepened somewhat across southwest MS. With strong low-level shear/SRH (0-1 km SRH greater than 300 m2/s2) noted on the KDGX VWP, organized convective elements may develop and persist within this cluster as it moves eastward through late evening, with a threat for locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN... LAT...LON 32699027 33058931 32908883 32288896 31938927 31828975 31859028 31879076 32079071 32699027 Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-137-143-151-171-193-235- 253-265-267-271-299-307-319-327-333-353-363-385-399-411-413-417- 429-431-435-441-451-463-465-110540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND EDWARDS ERATH FISHER GILLESPIE HAMILTON IRION JONES KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS NOLAN PALO PINTO REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-137-143-151-171-193-235- 253-265-267-271-299-307-319-327-333-353-363-385-399-411-413-417- 429-431-435-441-451-463-465-110540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND EDWARDS ERATH FISHER GILLESPIE HAMILTON IRION JONES KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS NOLAN PALO PINTO REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0015 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0840 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Areas affected...Edwards Plateau vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 110240Z - 110415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm development is expected later tonight. The primary threat is expected to be very large hail, though there will also be some threat for isolated severe gusts and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A vigorous mid/upper-level low is moving eastward across southern NM this evening, with an attendant jet maximum moving across northern Mexico. A surface boundary has gradually sagged southward this evening across parts of south-central TX, but this boundary may tend to stall as a surface low develops along the front in response to the approaching upper low. Near and north of the boundary, low-level east-southeasterly flow continues to transport moisture into parts of the Edwards Plateau, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional 00Z soundings). Intense thunderstorm development is expected later tonight, as large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low impinges upon an increasingly unstable environment, with MUCAPE expected to be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range at the time of initiation. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized storm structures, including the potential for supercells and perhaps some upscale growth with time. With steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures aloft, any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter). Storms are generally expected to remain somewhat elevated along/north of the surface boundary. However, any storm that can be sustained near the boundary and become surface-based could also pose a threat of a tornado, given favorable low-level shear/SRH. Any near-surface-based storm or stronger elevated cluster could also pose some threat for isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is likely prior to 04Z. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32020131 32250070 32260000 32219871 31139816 29779842 29429859 29119903 28989977 29080058 29420109 29770142 31000159 32020131 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 11 03:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected to increase in areal coverage across Texas later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be spreading across eastern NM and far west TX into the TX south Plains. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests the center of an evolving upper low is located over southwest NM. This feature is advancing east in line with latest model guidance. Isolated thunderstorms persist within the warm advection zone, along the cool side of the boundary, from central TX into northern LA. This activity has struggled to strengthen appreciably and these trends may persist much of the night. However, robust convection is expected to evolve across west TX later this evening as the aforementioned forcing interacts with the western plume of moisture/buoyancy. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits very steep lapse rates through 5km, but is also quite dry. Moisture should gradually spread into this steeper lapse-rate region over the next several hours and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, most likely after 03-04z. Very large hail remains the primary risk with supercells that evolve. This activity will spread toward the I35 corridor late tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected to increase in areal coverage across Texas later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be spreading across eastern NM and far west TX into the TX south Plains. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests the center of an evolving upper low is located over southwest NM. This feature is advancing east in line with latest model guidance. Isolated thunderstorms persist within the warm advection zone, along the cool side of the boundary, from central TX into northern LA. This activity has struggled to strengthen appreciably and these trends may persist much of the night. However, robust convection is expected to evolve across west TX later this evening as the aforementioned forcing interacts with the western plume of moisture/buoyancy. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits very steep lapse rates through 5km, but is also quite dry. Moisture should gradually spread into this steeper lapse-rate region over the next several hours and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, most likely after 03-04z. Very large hail remains the primary risk with supercells that evolve. This activity will spread toward the I35 corridor late tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected to increase in areal coverage across Texas later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be spreading across eastern NM and far west TX into the TX south Plains. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests the center of an evolving upper low is located over southwest NM. This feature is advancing east in line with latest model guidance. Isolated thunderstorms persist within the warm advection zone, along the cool side of the boundary, from central TX into northern LA. This activity has struggled to strengthen appreciably and these trends may persist much of the night. However, robust convection is expected to evolve across west TX later this evening as the aforementioned forcing interacts with the western plume of moisture/buoyancy. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits very steep lapse rates through 5km, but is also quite dry. Moisture should gradually spread into this steeper lapse-rate region over the next several hours and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, most likely after 03-04z. Very large hail remains the primary risk with supercells that evolve. This activity will spread toward the I35 corridor late tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected to increase in areal coverage across Texas later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be spreading across eastern NM and far west TX into the TX south Plains. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests the center of an evolving upper low is located over southwest NM. This feature is advancing east in line with latest model guidance. Isolated thunderstorms persist within the warm advection zone, along the cool side of the boundary, from central TX into northern LA. This activity has struggled to strengthen appreciably and these trends may persist much of the night. However, robust convection is expected to evolve across west TX later this evening as the aforementioned forcing interacts with the western plume of moisture/buoyancy. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits very steep lapse rates through 5km, but is also quite dry. Moisture should gradually spread into this steeper lapse-rate region over the next several hours and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, most likely after 03-04z. Very large hail remains the primary risk with supercells that evolve. This activity will spread toward the I35 corridor late tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected to increase in areal coverage across Texas later tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be spreading across eastern NM and far west TX into the TX south Plains. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests the center of an evolving upper low is located over southwest NM. This feature is advancing east in line with latest model guidance. Isolated thunderstorms persist within the warm advection zone, along the cool side of the boundary, from central TX into northern LA. This activity has struggled to strengthen appreciably and these trends may persist much of the night. However, robust convection is expected to evolve across west TX later this evening as the aforementioned forcing interacts with the western plume of moisture/buoyancy. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits very steep lapse rates through 5km, but is also quite dry. Moisture should gradually spread into this steeper lapse-rate region over the next several hours and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, most likely after 03-04z. Very large hail remains the primary risk with supercells that evolve. This activity will spread toward the I35 corridor late tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2024 Read more