Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward away from the East Coast on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains established across much of the continental United States. At the surface on Tuesday, an area of high pressure will be located from the southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Dry air advection associated with the high pressure system and relatively cold conditions across the nation will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward away from the East Coast on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains established across much of the continental United States. At the surface on Tuesday, an area of high pressure will be located from the southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Dry air advection associated with the high pressure system and relatively cold conditions across the nation will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward away from the East Coast on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains established across much of the continental United States. At the surface on Tuesday, an area of high pressure will be located from the southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Dry air advection associated with the high pressure system and relatively cold conditions across the nation will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward away from the East Coast on Tuesday, as west-northwest mid-level flow remains established across much of the continental United States. At the surface on Tuesday, an area of high pressure will be located from the southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Dry air advection associated with the high pressure system and relatively cold conditions across the nation will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 6R6 TO 60 N DRT TO 40 E SJT TO 40 W BWD TO 20 W BWD TO 45 W MWL. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-083-093-133-137-143-171-193-265-267-271-299-307-319- 327-333-363-385-411-429-435-463-465-110940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN COLEMAN COMANCHE EASTLAND EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO REAL SAN SABA STEPHENS SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE 6R6 TO 60 ENE 6R6 TO 10 ESE SJT TO 40 W BWD TO 20 ESE ABI TO 35 ENE ABI. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-083-093-095-133-137-143-171-193-265-267-271-299-307- 319-327-333-363-385-411-413-429-435-451-463-465-110840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER STEPHENS SUTTON TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front. These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the 60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist sector as surface temperatures gradually warm. The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward into South Carolina. ..Broyles.. 02/11/2024 Read more

MD 0120 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15... FOR TX BIG COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Areas affected...TX Big Country into the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15... Valid 110556Z - 110730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 continues. SUMMARY...The large hail threat is expected to increase overnight as storms move eastward. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection erupted earlier this evening from the western part of the Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country, as an upper low approaching from NM began to impinge on the western portion of the primary instability axis. Increasing deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized convection overnight as convection moves eastward, and a few supercells may continue to evolve (like recent development south of Abilene and west of San Angelo) out of the ongoing elevated storm cluster overnight. MUCAPE increasing into 1000 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to support a hail threat, with very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter possible with any stronger supercell. As long as storms remain semi-discrete and elevated, hail will be the primary threat, with perhaps some localized strong gusts. If convection can build into the southern portion of WW 15 closer to the surface boundary, then the threat may increase for a near-surface-based supercell, which would pose a conditional risk of all severe hazards. That scenario remains very uncertain at this time, however. ..Dean.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30510217 31780056 32369941 32939903 32789829 32239821 31209886 30120009 29780059 29660102 29660115 29730188 29860225 30260237 30510217 Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW SJT TO 40 NNE SJT TO 10 E ABI TO 35 NE ABI. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-059-083-093-095-105-133-137-143-171-193-235-265-267- 271-299-307-319-327-333-363-385-399-411-413-429-435-451-463-465- 110740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER STEPHENS SUTTON TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal on Monday as fuels are moist across most of the CONUS. Fuels are starting to dry near the Big Bend, but winds should be light across this region. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal on Monday as fuels are moist across most of the CONUS. Fuels are starting to dry near the Big Bend, but winds should be light across this region. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more