Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and some tornado threat are expected especially across parts of Texas this afternoon and tonight, with other severe storms possible toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on a more isolated basis. ...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... A prominent upper trough over the Southwest Deserts early today will continue northeastward over the southern Rockies as it takes on an increasingly positive tilt through tonight. Semi-phased polar/tropical jets will generally result in strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds across much of the southern tier of the CONUS, as these winds will largely overlie and be parallel to a frontal zone extending from west/south Texas northeastward to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Convection will be common along/north of this frontal zone for much of the period, but a gradual increase in thunderstorms and intensity are expected across the middle part of Texas into mid/late afternoon through early evening, with an additional round of thunderstorm intensification expected late tonight across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Strong deep-layer shear, highlighted by very long/semi-straight hodographs in the cloud-bearing layer, will support supercells, some of which could produce very large hail on a localized basis, especially with this evening's storms. Some damaging wind/tornado risk may also exist with storms occurring in closer proximity to the front, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong. Farther east, other more isolated/episodic severe storms will be possible as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley in vicinity of the effective front, with severe storms most probable across this region this evening into the overnight as frontal wave development occurs across the region and southwesterly 1-3km AGL winds strengthen. This could include at least some potential for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and some tornado threat are expected especially across parts of Texas this afternoon and tonight, with other severe storms possible toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on a more isolated basis. ...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... A prominent upper trough over the Southwest Deserts early today will continue northeastward over the southern Rockies as it takes on an increasingly positive tilt through tonight. Semi-phased polar/tropical jets will generally result in strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds across much of the southern tier of the CONUS, as these winds will largely overlie and be parallel to a frontal zone extending from west/south Texas northeastward to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Convection will be common along/north of this frontal zone for much of the period, but a gradual increase in thunderstorms and intensity are expected across the middle part of Texas into mid/late afternoon through early evening, with an additional round of thunderstorm intensification expected late tonight across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Strong deep-layer shear, highlighted by very long/semi-straight hodographs in the cloud-bearing layer, will support supercells, some of which could produce very large hail on a localized basis, especially with this evening's storms. Some damaging wind/tornado risk may also exist with storms occurring in closer proximity to the front, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong. Farther east, other more isolated/episodic severe storms will be possible as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley in vicinity of the effective front, with severe storms most probable across this region this evening into the overnight as frontal wave development occurs across the region and southwesterly 1-3km AGL winds strengthen. This could include at least some potential for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and some tornado threat are expected especially across parts of Texas this afternoon and tonight, with other severe storms possible toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on a more isolated basis. ...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... A prominent upper trough over the Southwest Deserts early today will continue northeastward over the southern Rockies as it takes on an increasingly positive tilt through tonight. Semi-phased polar/tropical jets will generally result in strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds across much of the southern tier of the CONUS, as these winds will largely overlie and be parallel to a frontal zone extending from west/south Texas northeastward to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Convection will be common along/north of this frontal zone for much of the period, but a gradual increase in thunderstorms and intensity are expected across the middle part of Texas into mid/late afternoon through early evening, with an additional round of thunderstorm intensification expected late tonight across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Strong deep-layer shear, highlighted by very long/semi-straight hodographs in the cloud-bearing layer, will support supercells, some of which could produce very large hail on a localized basis, especially with this evening's storms. Some damaging wind/tornado risk may also exist with storms occurring in closer proximity to the front, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong. Farther east, other more isolated/episodic severe storms will be possible as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley in vicinity of the effective front, with severe storms most probable across this region this evening into the overnight as frontal wave development occurs across the region and southwesterly 1-3km AGL winds strengthen. This could include at least some potential for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, isolated damaging winds, and some tornado threat are expected especially across parts of Texas this afternoon and tonight, with other severe storms possible toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on a more isolated basis. ...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... A prominent upper trough over the Southwest Deserts early today will continue northeastward over the southern Rockies as it takes on an increasingly positive tilt through tonight. Semi-phased polar/tropical jets will generally result in strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds across much of the southern tier of the CONUS, as these winds will largely overlie and be parallel to a frontal zone extending from west/south Texas northeastward to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Convection will be common along/north of this frontal zone for much of the period, but a gradual increase in thunderstorms and intensity are expected across the middle part of Texas into mid/late afternoon through early evening, with an additional round of thunderstorm intensification expected late tonight across the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Strong deep-layer shear, highlighted by very long/semi-straight hodographs in the cloud-bearing layer, will support supercells, some of which could produce very large hail on a localized basis, especially with this evening's storms. Some damaging wind/tornado risk may also exist with storms occurring in closer proximity to the front, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong. Farther east, other more isolated/episodic severe storms will be possible as far east as the Lower Mississippi Valley in vicinity of the effective front, with severe storms most probable across this region this evening into the overnight as frontal wave development occurs across the region and southwesterly 1-3km AGL winds strengthen. This could include at least some potential for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/10/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A zonal flow pattern is forecast to setup across the U.S. through much of the Day 4 to 8 period. Surface high pressure is forecast to be dominant over the central and eastern U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F should remain mostly confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, where isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day on Thursday. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday along the central Gulf Coast, and in Florida on Saturday. In these areas, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain weak, suggesting a low potential for severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A zonal flow pattern is forecast to setup across the U.S. through much of the Day 4 to 8 period. Surface high pressure is forecast to be dominant over the central and eastern U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F should remain mostly confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, where isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day on Thursday. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday along the central Gulf Coast, and in Florida on Saturday. In these areas, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain weak, suggesting a low potential for severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A zonal flow pattern is forecast to setup across the U.S. through much of the Day 4 to 8 period. Surface high pressure is forecast to be dominant over the central and eastern U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F should remain mostly confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, where isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day on Thursday. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday along the central Gulf Coast, and in Florida on Saturday. In these areas, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain weak, suggesting a low potential for severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A zonal flow pattern is forecast to setup across the U.S. through much of the Day 4 to 8 period. Surface high pressure is forecast to be dominant over the central and eastern U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F should remain mostly confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, where isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day on Thursday. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday along the central Gulf Coast, and in Florida on Saturday. In these areas, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain weak, suggesting a low potential for severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A zonal flow pattern is forecast to setup across the U.S. through much of the Day 4 to 8 period. Surface high pressure is forecast to be dominant over the central and eastern U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F should remain mostly confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, where isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day on Thursday. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday along the central Gulf Coast, and in Florida on Saturday. In these areas, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain weak, suggesting a low potential for severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A zonal flow pattern is forecast to setup across the U.S. through much of the Day 4 to 8 period. Surface high pressure is forecast to be dominant over the central and eastern U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F should remain mostly confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, where isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day on Thursday. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday along the central Gulf Coast, and in Florida on Saturday. In these areas, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain weak, suggesting a low potential for severe. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A zonal flow pattern is forecast to setup across the U.S. through much of the Day 4 to 8 period. Surface high pressure is forecast to be dominant over the central and eastern U.S. from Tuesday to Thursday. From Thursday into Friday, weak moisture return is forecast to take place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F should remain mostly confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, where isolated thunderstorm development will be possible during the day on Thursday. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday along the central Gulf Coast, and in Florida on Saturday. In these areas, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to remain weak, suggesting a low potential for severe. Read more

MD 0116 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Areas affected...parts of southern Illinois...southern Indiana...western and north central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 100757Z - 101000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Localized strong, to occasionally severe, thunderstorm development may persist another hour or two, before tending to wane by around 5-7 AM EST. DISCUSSION...Isolated vigorous thunderstorm development has been maintained for a couple of hours now, probably supported by lift associated with enhanced low-level warm advection near a weak frontal wave and associated 40 kt 850 mb speed maximum propagating across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois. It is possible that this has been aided by forcing associated with at least a couple of speed maxima embedded within broadly anticyclonic flow in upper-levels. While a modest influx of low-level moisture may have locally contributed to most unstable CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg, latest model output suggests that this destabilization may begin to wane during the next couple of hours, perhaps most notably due to warming aloft. Until then (through around 10-12Z), sizable clockwise-curved hodographs within the near-surface inflow layer may continue to support supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 02/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 37968888 38788742 39018523 38458473 37928495 37718591 37698672 37738836 37968888 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm clusters associated with isolated wind damage and a tornado threat will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the Southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachians. To the southeast of the low, a moist airmass will be located across the eastern Gulf Coast states extending eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the western edge of the moist sector. As these storms move eastward during the day, warming surface temperatures should contribute to increasing cell organization. At 500 mb, a jet max is forecast to strengthen and move eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this feature, a band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for the development of severe storms. Short line segments are expected to develop, which should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 300 m2/s2 across much of the moist sector suggesting a tornado threat will be possible as well. The severe threat could continue into the evening, as the convection approaches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm clusters associated with isolated wind damage and a tornado threat will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the Southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachians. To the southeast of the low, a moist airmass will be located across the eastern Gulf Coast states extending eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the western edge of the moist sector. As these storms move eastward during the day, warming surface temperatures should contribute to increasing cell organization. At 500 mb, a jet max is forecast to strengthen and move eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this feature, a band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for the development of severe storms. Short line segments are expected to develop, which should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 300 m2/s2 across much of the moist sector suggesting a tornado threat will be possible as well. The severe threat could continue into the evening, as the convection approaches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm clusters associated with isolated wind damage and a tornado threat will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the Southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachians. To the southeast of the low, a moist airmass will be located across the eastern Gulf Coast states extending eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the western edge of the moist sector. As these storms move eastward during the day, warming surface temperatures should contribute to increasing cell organization. At 500 mb, a jet max is forecast to strengthen and move eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this feature, a band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for the development of severe storms. Short line segments are expected to develop, which should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 300 m2/s2 across much of the moist sector suggesting a tornado threat will be possible as well. The severe threat could continue into the evening, as the convection approaches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm clusters associated with isolated wind damage and a tornado threat will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the Southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachians. To the southeast of the low, a moist airmass will be located across the eastern Gulf Coast states extending eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the western edge of the moist sector. As these storms move eastward during the day, warming surface temperatures should contribute to increasing cell organization. At 500 mb, a jet max is forecast to strengthen and move eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this feature, a band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for the development of severe storms. Short line segments are expected to develop, which should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 300 m2/s2 across much of the moist sector suggesting a tornado threat will be possible as well. The severe threat could continue into the evening, as the convection approaches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm clusters associated with isolated wind damage and a tornado threat will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the Southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachians. To the southeast of the low, a moist airmass will be located across the eastern Gulf Coast states extending eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the western edge of the moist sector. As these storms move eastward during the day, warming surface temperatures should contribute to increasing cell organization. At 500 mb, a jet max is forecast to strengthen and move eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this feature, a band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for the development of severe storms. Short line segments are expected to develop, which should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 300 m2/s2 across much of the moist sector suggesting a tornado threat will be possible as well. The severe threat could continue into the evening, as the convection approaches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm clusters associated with isolated wind damage and a tornado threat will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the Southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachians. To the southeast of the low, a moist airmass will be located across the eastern Gulf Coast states extending eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the western edge of the moist sector. As these storms move eastward during the day, warming surface temperatures should contribute to increasing cell organization. At 500 mb, a jet max is forecast to strengthen and move eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this feature, a band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for the development of severe storms. Short line segments are expected to develop, which should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 300 m2/s2 across much of the moist sector suggesting a tornado threat will be possible as well. The severe threat could continue into the evening, as the convection approaches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm clusters associated with isolated wind damage and a tornado threat will be likely across parts of the Southeast on Monday. ...Southeast... An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the Southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachians. To the southeast of the low, a moist airmass will be located across the eastern Gulf Coast states extending eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period along the western edge of the moist sector. As these storms move eastward during the day, warming surface temperatures should contribute to increasing cell organization. At 500 mb, a jet max is forecast to strengthen and move eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this feature, a band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will likely be favorable for the development of severe storms. Short line segments are expected to develop, which should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 300 m2/s2 across much of the moist sector suggesting a tornado threat will be possible as well. The severe threat could continue into the evening, as the convection approaches the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Sunday from east Texas extending eastward across Louisiana into south-central Mississippi, and far southwest Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will be possible. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level low, and an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move into the southern Plains on Sunday. Ahead of the system, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a moist airmass in place ahead of the low from southeast Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints across the moist sector should be in the lower to mid 60s F. A cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period near the northwestern edge of the moist sector across parts of east Texas. As the airmass destabilizes during the day, additional storms are expected to develop further to the east across the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast region. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast to be present on Sunday over much of the southeastern U.S. This will help storms organize during the day, with a severe threat likely developing. Supercells associated with isolated large hail will be possible across parts of east Texas and Louisiana on Sunday afternoon, where forecast soundings show 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. As a cluster of thunderstorms organizes during the day, embedded supercells and short line segments should be capable of producing isolated wind damage. A tornado threat is also expected to develop across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, with the threat gradually spreading eastward into the central Gulf Coast states by evening. There are a couple of limiting factors for this coming event, which introduce uncertainty concerning the severe threat magnitude. First, the mid-level jet is forecast to remain well to the west of the severe threat area throughout the event. Second, the low-level jet associated with the approaching system, is forecast to remain relative weak. Due to these less-than-ideal factors, will not upgrade from Slight Risk at this time. ..Broyles.. 02/10/2024 Read more