Severe Storms

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326 ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-207-221-235-253-353-363- 367-399-417-429-431-441-447-451-012340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HASKELL HOOD IRION JONES NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-037-047-049-051- 053-063-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101- 103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137-141- 143-145-147-149-012340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PNC TO 10 WNW FLV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327 ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-099-125-133-205-207- 012340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0325 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri into parts of central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 012050Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours as additional storms may develop in east-central Missouri/central Illinois. The environment is supportive of large/very-large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is expected to increase this evening as low-level shear increases near the boundary. DISCUSSION...Cores within a broad area of precipitation have occasionally pulsed in intensity. Some recent CAM guidance suggest that additional storms will develop out of this activity within the next 2-3 hours. While current wind profiles are not overly supportive of tornadoes, storms will be near the warm front and low-level shear should improve this evening as 850 mb winds increase. Given the background environment and potential evolution of this activity, a tornado watch will need to be considered. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39299311 39839092 39848842 39538742 39128758 38238994 38109132 38389261 39299311 Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-011-021-037-043-091-103-107-121-209-012240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD DONIPHAN JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC003-009-011-013-015-021-025-029-033-037-039-041-043-047-049- 053-057-059-061-063-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-095-097-101- 107-109-115-117-119-121-131-141-145-147-159-165-167-175-177-185- 195-209-213-217-227-012240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL CAMDEN CARROLL CASS CEDAR CHARITON CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON COOPER DADE DALLAS DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY Read more

WW 0066 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 66 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 66 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-059-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-207-221-235-253-353-363- 367-399-417-429-431-441-447-451-012240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HASKELL HOOD IRION JONES NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HUM TO 30 ESE MCB TO 40 E PIB TO 40 SE MEI. ..KERR..03/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-025-097-129-090040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CLARKE MOBILE WASHINGTON LAC051-071-087-089-093-095-103-117-090040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY WASHINGTON MSC035-039-041-045-047-059-109-111-131-090040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE Read more

WW 0065 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-037-047-049-051- 053-063-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-101- 103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-131-133-137-141- 143-145-147-149-012240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EMP TO 20 N TOP. ..WEINMAN..04/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-045-049-059-073-087-099-111-125- 133-139-177-191-205-207-012240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JEFFERSON LABETTE LYON MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE SHAWNEE SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011946Z - 012145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Should storms develop/mature, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated this afternoon and the need for a watch is not certain. Convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues along/south of a warm front within the Ohio Valley vicinity. A few weak convective cores within southern Indiana continue eastward. These storms may be capable of small hail. Continued heating/warm advection within the frontal zone may lead to additional storms along the boundary. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will mean potentially organized storms, should they mature. The main uncertainty is how intense these storms will become given neutral to modest mid-level height rises this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but convective trends will be monitored. A more substantial severe threat is expected later this evening/overnight. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 37838298 37708422 37858556 37978682 38308760 39358750 39728640 39488323 39028139 38288144 37838298 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large-scale upper-level trough will be positioned over the central CONUS on D3/Wed, with a high amplitude ridge positioned over the West. By D4/Thu another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast while the general upper-level pattern shifts east. Strong mid-level flow associated with this trough will begin overspreading the southern/central CONUS by D5/Fri and persist through D7/Sun. Thereafter, evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes more uncertain. D5/Fri - D7/Sun: Southern/Central High Plains: Medium-range guidance continues to depict agreement in the potential for multiple days of wide-spread fire-weather conditions across the Southern/Central High Plains and adjacent regions. The aforementioned strong southwesterly mid-level flow should persist atop boundary layer conditions that are well-mixed. This will promote sustained winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values falling below 15% each day. Fuels are presently at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread, with ERC values exceeding 90% in at least localized areas of the region. For this outlook, the 40% and 70% probabilities have been maintained on D5/Fri and D6/Sat, and 40% probabilities have been introduced for the region on D7/Sun. These delineations have been confined to the most probable areas for critical fire-weather potential based on depictions/spread in the medium-range guidance. ..Karstens.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more