Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon through early evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations show upper 40s surface dewpoints present across southern/central IL and vicinity, with clearing occurring across parts of eastern IA and western/central IL beneath a mid-level dry slot. Recent visible satellite imagery also shows shallow cu development across northeastern MO and central/eastern IA as large-scale ascent attendant to an upper trough overspreads the warm/moist sector. Current expectations are for isolated, low-topped thunderstorms to develop by 22-23Z across far eastern IA and northern IL. Even though low-level moisture will likely remain shallow/limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 40s, rather cold mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft should still aid in the development of around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Coupled with strong deep-layer shear, this weak instability should support organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated severe hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado all appear possible with this activity as it spreads quickly northeastward across northern IL and southern WI through the early evening before weakening. Given the limited thermodynamic environment and latest surface observations, have maintained the Marginal Risk with no changes. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough now crossing the Middle Missouri Valley/central Plains will continue progressing northeastward today and tonight, while a second feature now in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley shifts eastward through the period. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the East will be shunted progressively eastward by the aforementioned advance of short-wave troughs farther west. At the surface, a rather deep (990 mb) surface cyclone is currently analyzed near the ND/SD/MN border intersection, with a cold front extending southward across the Middle Missouri Valley into Kansas. This boundary, and the advance of the upper trough, may support isolated late afternoon strong/potentially severe convective development across eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Elsewhere, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve across the Four Corners states ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, and overnight thunder may evolve within an area of broad/weak QG ascent over parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Severe weather is not expected in these areas. ...Eastern Iowa/northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin vicinity... Low-level moisture remains a primary uncertainty today, with respect to potential strong/severe storm development. Dewpoints remain in the upper 30s/low 40s across the Iowa/Illinois area, where model forecast soundings -- particularly the RAP -- have consistently indicated upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints by late afternoon. This degree of moistening still appears to be a bit aggressive, with middle to upper 40s largely anticipated. With that said, very cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will continue to overspread this region, and the deep-layer wind field is conditionally quite supportive of severe/supercell storms. At this time, we will maintain MRGL risk and all-hazard, low-probability outlook. A couple of storms may develop by late afternoon, in the eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois vicinity, and then shift eastward/east-northeastward through early evening, before weakening. However, evolution of moisture through the day will be closely watched, as the more aggressive RAP model solution -- should it appear more likely to occur -- would require consideration for an upgrade to the outlook at 20Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon through early evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations show upper 40s surface dewpoints present across southern/central IL and vicinity, with clearing occurring across parts of eastern IA and western/central IL beneath a mid-level dry slot. Recent visible satellite imagery also shows shallow cu development across northeastern MO and central/eastern IA as large-scale ascent attendant to an upper trough overspreads the warm/moist sector. Current expectations are for isolated, low-topped thunderstorms to develop by 22-23Z across far eastern IA and northern IL. Even though low-level moisture will likely remain shallow/limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 40s, rather cold mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft should still aid in the development of around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Coupled with strong deep-layer shear, this weak instability should support organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated severe hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado all appear possible with this activity as it spreads quickly northeastward across northern IL and southern WI through the early evening before weakening. Given the limited thermodynamic environment and latest surface observations, have maintained the Marginal Risk with no changes. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough now crossing the Middle Missouri Valley/central Plains will continue progressing northeastward today and tonight, while a second feature now in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley shifts eastward through the period. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the East will be shunted progressively eastward by the aforementioned advance of short-wave troughs farther west. At the surface, a rather deep (990 mb) surface cyclone is currently analyzed near the ND/SD/MN border intersection, with a cold front extending southward across the Middle Missouri Valley into Kansas. This boundary, and the advance of the upper trough, may support isolated late afternoon strong/potentially severe convective development across eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Elsewhere, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve across the Four Corners states ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, and overnight thunder may evolve within an area of broad/weak QG ascent over parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Severe weather is not expected in these areas. ...Eastern Iowa/northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin vicinity... Low-level moisture remains a primary uncertainty today, with respect to potential strong/severe storm development. Dewpoints remain in the upper 30s/low 40s across the Iowa/Illinois area, where model forecast soundings -- particularly the RAP -- have consistently indicated upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints by late afternoon. This degree of moistening still appears to be a bit aggressive, with middle to upper 40s largely anticipated. With that said, very cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will continue to overspread this region, and the deep-layer wind field is conditionally quite supportive of severe/supercell storms. At this time, we will maintain MRGL risk and all-hazard, low-probability outlook. A couple of storms may develop by late afternoon, in the eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois vicinity, and then shift eastward/east-northeastward through early evening, before weakening. However, evolution of moisture through the day will be closely watched, as the more aggressive RAP model solution -- should it appear more likely to occur -- would require consideration for an upgrade to the outlook at 20Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon through early evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations show upper 40s surface dewpoints present across southern/central IL and vicinity, with clearing occurring across parts of eastern IA and western/central IL beneath a mid-level dry slot. Recent visible satellite imagery also shows shallow cu development across northeastern MO and central/eastern IA as large-scale ascent attendant to an upper trough overspreads the warm/moist sector. Current expectations are for isolated, low-topped thunderstorms to develop by 22-23Z across far eastern IA and northern IL. Even though low-level moisture will likely remain shallow/limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 40s, rather cold mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft should still aid in the development of around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Coupled with strong deep-layer shear, this weak instability should support organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated severe hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado all appear possible with this activity as it spreads quickly northeastward across northern IL and southern WI through the early evening before weakening. Given the limited thermodynamic environment and latest surface observations, have maintained the Marginal Risk with no changes. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough now crossing the Middle Missouri Valley/central Plains will continue progressing northeastward today and tonight, while a second feature now in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley shifts eastward through the period. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the East will be shunted progressively eastward by the aforementioned advance of short-wave troughs farther west. At the surface, a rather deep (990 mb) surface cyclone is currently analyzed near the ND/SD/MN border intersection, with a cold front extending southward across the Middle Missouri Valley into Kansas. This boundary, and the advance of the upper trough, may support isolated late afternoon strong/potentially severe convective development across eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Elsewhere, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve across the Four Corners states ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, and overnight thunder may evolve within an area of broad/weak QG ascent over parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Severe weather is not expected in these areas. ...Eastern Iowa/northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin vicinity... Low-level moisture remains a primary uncertainty today, with respect to potential strong/severe storm development. Dewpoints remain in the upper 30s/low 40s across the Iowa/Illinois area, where model forecast soundings -- particularly the RAP -- have consistently indicated upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints by late afternoon. This degree of moistening still appears to be a bit aggressive, with middle to upper 40s largely anticipated. With that said, very cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will continue to overspread this region, and the deep-layer wind field is conditionally quite supportive of severe/supercell storms. At this time, we will maintain MRGL risk and all-hazard, low-probability outlook. A couple of storms may develop by late afternoon, in the eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois vicinity, and then shift eastward/east-northeastward through early evening, before weakening. However, evolution of moisture through the day will be closely watched, as the more aggressive RAP model solution -- should it appear more likely to occur -- would require consideration for an upgrade to the outlook at 20Z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon through early evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...20Z Update... Recent surface observations show upper 40s surface dewpoints present across southern/central IL and vicinity, with clearing occurring across parts of eastern IA and western/central IL beneath a mid-level dry slot. Recent visible satellite imagery also shows shallow cu development across northeastern MO and central/eastern IA as large-scale ascent attendant to an upper trough overspreads the warm/moist sector. Current expectations are for isolated, low-topped thunderstorms to develop by 22-23Z across far eastern IA and northern IL. Even though low-level moisture will likely remain shallow/limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 40s, rather cold mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft should still aid in the development of around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Coupled with strong deep-layer shear, this weak instability should support organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated severe hail, strong/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado all appear possible with this activity as it spreads quickly northeastward across northern IL and southern WI through the early evening before weakening. Given the limited thermodynamic environment and latest surface observations, have maintained the Marginal Risk with no changes. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough now crossing the Middle Missouri Valley/central Plains will continue progressing northeastward today and tonight, while a second feature now in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley shifts eastward through the period. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the East will be shunted progressively eastward by the aforementioned advance of short-wave troughs farther west. At the surface, a rather deep (990 mb) surface cyclone is currently analyzed near the ND/SD/MN border intersection, with a cold front extending southward across the Middle Missouri Valley into Kansas. This boundary, and the advance of the upper trough, may support isolated late afternoon strong/potentially severe convective development across eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Elsewhere, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve across the Four Corners states ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, and overnight thunder may evolve within an area of broad/weak QG ascent over parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Severe weather is not expected in these areas. ...Eastern Iowa/northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin vicinity... Low-level moisture remains a primary uncertainty today, with respect to potential strong/severe storm development. Dewpoints remain in the upper 30s/low 40s across the Iowa/Illinois area, where model forecast soundings -- particularly the RAP -- have consistently indicated upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints by late afternoon. This degree of moistening still appears to be a bit aggressive, with middle to upper 40s largely anticipated. With that said, very cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will continue to overspread this region, and the deep-layer wind field is conditionally quite supportive of severe/supercell storms. At this time, we will maintain MRGL risk and all-hazard, low-probability outlook. A couple of storms may develop by late afternoon, in the eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois vicinity, and then shift eastward/east-northeastward through early evening, before weakening. However, evolution of moisture through the day will be closely watched, as the more aggressive RAP model solution -- should it appear more likely to occur -- would require consideration for an upgrade to the outlook at 20Z. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear low due to unfavorable fuels. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions will remain possible over parts of the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear low due to unfavorable fuels. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions will remain possible over parts of the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear low due to unfavorable fuels. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions will remain possible over parts of the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear low due to unfavorable fuels. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions will remain possible over parts of the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear low due to unfavorable fuels. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions will remain possible over parts of the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear low due to unfavorable fuels. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions will remain possible over parts of the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear low due to unfavorable fuels. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions will remain possible over parts of the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear low due to unfavorable fuels. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions will remain possible over parts of the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear low due to unfavorable fuels. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions will remain possible over parts of the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0112 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 0112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Areas affected...Northern Arizona Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 081648Z - 081945Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates 1-2 inches per hour. Areas of blowing snow with poor visibility. DISCUSSION...A cold front currently located across western Arizona will advance eastward this morning. Ahead of this feature, upslope snow showers are ongoing with light to moderate snow being reported in Flagstaff and across the Prescott Valley. Temperatures below 6000 feet are hovering just above freezing just south of the Mogollon Rim. Ahead of the front, steep low to mid-level lapse rates are in place around 7-8 C/km. As the front advances eastward, snowfall rates will increase as frontogenetic forcing increases along with strong upslope flow along the terrain. Given the lapse rate profile, some convective enhancement is likely, with heavy snowfall rates around 1-2 inches per hour at times. Lower elevation locations where dew points are below 32F may see quick snow levels lower with any heavier precipitation rates. Given the strong southerly flow gusting 25-30 mph (locally as high as 40 mph), poor visibility is likely, especially along the cold frontal passage. These conditions will continue to shift eastward with the cold front, mainly along the high terrain of the Mogollon Rim, through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGZ... LAT...LON 34611154 34831163 34921181 34921192 34671212 34401232 34381256 34701283 35011276 35321268 35411266 35501246 35501211 35461186 35361165 35161140 34981118 34921112 34711102 34481111 34431128 34611154 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential currently appears rather uncertain Friday into Friday night, but trends will be closely monitored from parts of eastern Oklahoma through the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With positive-tilt mid/upper-level troughing persisting over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Friday, the primary feature of interest for convective potential will be a compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern/central Plains through the day, and over the mid MS and OH Valleys late Friday into early Saturday morning. An occluded surface low is forecast to advance northeastward across Ontario through the period, while a separate, weak surface low attendant to the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough develops from the central High Plains to the Midwest. Weak thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning along/near a remnant surface boundary across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional convective development ahead of the shortwave trough and associated surface low/cold front will likely be delayed until Friday evening at the earliest, with residual capping and MLCIN generally inhibiting thunderstorm initiation. Still, at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form over parts of eastern OK and the Ozarks, and spread east-northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley Friday night. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across these regions ahead of the east-southeastward moving cold front, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how much boundary-layer instability will be realized, and whether thunderstorms will remain elevated or become surface based. The 12Z NAM is notably more aggressive than most other guidance in depicting greater low-level moisture and related instability across MO/AR eastward into the lower OH Valley late Friday into early Saturday morning. Given strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level shear forecast, any surface-based thunderstorms that can develop and persist would conditionally support a severe risk. But, this potential still appears highly uncertain and conditional, with a better chance that convection remains slightly elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Have therefore opted to not include any low severe probabilities at this time, while expanding the general thunderstorm area northward to account for a larger zone of possible thunderstorm development. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential currently appears rather uncertain Friday into Friday night, but trends will be closely monitored from parts of eastern Oklahoma through the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With positive-tilt mid/upper-level troughing persisting over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Friday, the primary feature of interest for convective potential will be a compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern/central Plains through the day, and over the mid MS and OH Valleys late Friday into early Saturday morning. An occluded surface low is forecast to advance northeastward across Ontario through the period, while a separate, weak surface low attendant to the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough develops from the central High Plains to the Midwest. Weak thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning along/near a remnant surface boundary across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional convective development ahead of the shortwave trough and associated surface low/cold front will likely be delayed until Friday evening at the earliest, with residual capping and MLCIN generally inhibiting thunderstorm initiation. Still, at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form over parts of eastern OK and the Ozarks, and spread east-northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley Friday night. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across these regions ahead of the east-southeastward moving cold front, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how much boundary-layer instability will be realized, and whether thunderstorms will remain elevated or become surface based. The 12Z NAM is notably more aggressive than most other guidance in depicting greater low-level moisture and related instability across MO/AR eastward into the lower OH Valley late Friday into early Saturday morning. Given strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level shear forecast, any surface-based thunderstorms that can develop and persist would conditionally support a severe risk. But, this potential still appears highly uncertain and conditional, with a better chance that convection remains slightly elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Have therefore opted to not include any low severe probabilities at this time, while expanding the general thunderstorm area northward to account for a larger zone of possible thunderstorm development. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential currently appears rather uncertain Friday into Friday night, but trends will be closely monitored from parts of eastern Oklahoma through the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With positive-tilt mid/upper-level troughing persisting over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Friday, the primary feature of interest for convective potential will be a compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern/central Plains through the day, and over the mid MS and OH Valleys late Friday into early Saturday morning. An occluded surface low is forecast to advance northeastward across Ontario through the period, while a separate, weak surface low attendant to the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough develops from the central High Plains to the Midwest. Weak thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning along/near a remnant surface boundary across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional convective development ahead of the shortwave trough and associated surface low/cold front will likely be delayed until Friday evening at the earliest, with residual capping and MLCIN generally inhibiting thunderstorm initiation. Still, at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form over parts of eastern OK and the Ozarks, and spread east-northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley Friday night. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across these regions ahead of the east-southeastward moving cold front, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how much boundary-layer instability will be realized, and whether thunderstorms will remain elevated or become surface based. The 12Z NAM is notably more aggressive than most other guidance in depicting greater low-level moisture and related instability across MO/AR eastward into the lower OH Valley late Friday into early Saturday morning. Given strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level shear forecast, any surface-based thunderstorms that can develop and persist would conditionally support a severe risk. But, this potential still appears highly uncertain and conditional, with a better chance that convection remains slightly elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Have therefore opted to not include any low severe probabilities at this time, while expanding the general thunderstorm area northward to account for a larger zone of possible thunderstorm development. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential currently appears rather uncertain Friday into Friday night, but trends will be closely monitored from parts of eastern Oklahoma through the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With positive-tilt mid/upper-level troughing persisting over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Friday, the primary feature of interest for convective potential will be a compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern/central Plains through the day, and over the mid MS and OH Valleys late Friday into early Saturday morning. An occluded surface low is forecast to advance northeastward across Ontario through the period, while a separate, weak surface low attendant to the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough develops from the central High Plains to the Midwest. Weak thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning along/near a remnant surface boundary across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional convective development ahead of the shortwave trough and associated surface low/cold front will likely be delayed until Friday evening at the earliest, with residual capping and MLCIN generally inhibiting thunderstorm initiation. Still, at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form over parts of eastern OK and the Ozarks, and spread east-northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley Friday night. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across these regions ahead of the east-southeastward moving cold front, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how much boundary-layer instability will be realized, and whether thunderstorms will remain elevated or become surface based. The 12Z NAM is notably more aggressive than most other guidance in depicting greater low-level moisture and related instability across MO/AR eastward into the lower OH Valley late Friday into early Saturday morning. Given strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level shear forecast, any surface-based thunderstorms that can develop and persist would conditionally support a severe risk. But, this potential still appears highly uncertain and conditional, with a better chance that convection remains slightly elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Have therefore opted to not include any low severe probabilities at this time, while expanding the general thunderstorm area northward to account for a larger zone of possible thunderstorm development. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential currently appears rather uncertain Friday into Friday night, but trends will be closely monitored from parts of eastern Oklahoma through the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With positive-tilt mid/upper-level troughing persisting over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Friday, the primary feature of interest for convective potential will be a compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern/central Plains through the day, and over the mid MS and OH Valleys late Friday into early Saturday morning. An occluded surface low is forecast to advance northeastward across Ontario through the period, while a separate, weak surface low attendant to the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough develops from the central High Plains to the Midwest. Weak thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning along/near a remnant surface boundary across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional convective development ahead of the shortwave trough and associated surface low/cold front will likely be delayed until Friday evening at the earliest, with residual capping and MLCIN generally inhibiting thunderstorm initiation. Still, at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form over parts of eastern OK and the Ozarks, and spread east-northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley Friday night. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across these regions ahead of the east-southeastward moving cold front, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how much boundary-layer instability will be realized, and whether thunderstorms will remain elevated or become surface based. The 12Z NAM is notably more aggressive than most other guidance in depicting greater low-level moisture and related instability across MO/AR eastward into the lower OH Valley late Friday into early Saturday morning. Given strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level shear forecast, any surface-based thunderstorms that can develop and persist would conditionally support a severe risk. But, this potential still appears highly uncertain and conditional, with a better chance that convection remains slightly elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Have therefore opted to not include any low severe probabilities at this time, while expanding the general thunderstorm area northward to account for a larger zone of possible thunderstorm development. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential currently appears rather uncertain Friday into Friday night, but trends will be closely monitored from parts of eastern Oklahoma through the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With positive-tilt mid/upper-level troughing persisting over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Friday, the primary feature of interest for convective potential will be a compact shortwave trough ejecting across the southern/central Plains through the day, and over the mid MS and OH Valleys late Friday into early Saturday morning. An occluded surface low is forecast to advance northeastward across Ontario through the period, while a separate, weak surface low attendant to the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough develops from the central High Plains to the Midwest. Weak thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning along/near a remnant surface boundary across parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional convective development ahead of the shortwave trough and associated surface low/cold front will likely be delayed until Friday evening at the earliest, with residual capping and MLCIN generally inhibiting thunderstorm initiation. Still, at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form over parts of eastern OK and the Ozarks, and spread east-northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley Friday night. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across these regions ahead of the east-southeastward moving cold front, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how much boundary-layer instability will be realized, and whether thunderstorms will remain elevated or become surface based. The 12Z NAM is notably more aggressive than most other guidance in depicting greater low-level moisture and related instability across MO/AR eastward into the lower OH Valley late Friday into early Saturday morning. Given strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level shear forecast, any surface-based thunderstorms that can develop and persist would conditionally support a severe risk. But, this potential still appears highly uncertain and conditional, with a better chance that convection remains slightly elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Have therefore opted to not include any low severe probabilities at this time, while expanding the general thunderstorm area northward to account for a larger zone of possible thunderstorm development. ..Gleason.. 02/08/2024 Read more