Severe Storms

MD 0123 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Texas into southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16... Valid 111240Z - 111515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may continue through 9-11 AM CST, with hail remaining the primary potential severe hazard. DISCUSSION...An initial area of stronger large-scale ascent appears to be pivoting north of the Red River Valley. However, one persistent strong cell/small cluster of convective development continues to be supported by a focused area of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection now spreading across the Tyler, TX toward Shreveport, LA vicinities. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear how much longer this will be maintained, but sustained weakening trends have yet to develop, and it is on track to reach the Shreveport vicinity by 15Z. Otherwise, into the 15-17Z time frame, weaker low-level warm advection appears likely to persist within a corridor north of the upper Texas coastal plain through the Shreveport vicinity, beneath at least weakly difluent high-level low. This may support continuing convective development, with the stronger thunderstorm development perhaps shifting closer to the surface frontal zone, near the Huntsville vicinity. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32069587 32609543 33099443 33429288 32619231 32119346 30709551 30469650 30829711 31349651 32069587 Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-139-111540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA UNION LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111- 119-127-111540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC403-405-111540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AUS TO 20 WNW UTS TO 35 NNW LFK TO 30 SSW GGG TO 25 E GGG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123 ..GLEASON..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-041-051-185-203-225-347-365-401-419-455-471-111540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON GRIMES HARRISON HOUSTON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SHELBY TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0017 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AUS TO 35 N CLL TO 45 SSE CRS TO 35 SE CRS TO 10 SSE TYR TO 35 N TYR. ..KERR..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-041-051-073-183-185-203-225-289-313-347-365-395-401- 419-423-455-471-111440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE GREGG GRIMES HARRISON HOUSTON LEON MADISON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA ROBERTSON RUSK SHELBY SMITH TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM EAST TEXAS TO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from east/southeast Texas to portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf States today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Gulf States including East Texas to Alabama/Georgia... A positively tilted upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject eastward and increasingly take on a neutral tilt tonight as cyclonically curved westerlies related to the polar jet strengthen into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. Scattered elevated convection has been persistent along and north of a west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented boundary since last evening, with ongoing thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, moving across northeast Texas early this morning. Some of these storms may continue to pose a severe-weather risk this morning into northern Louisiana/far southern Arkansas and possibly toward the ArkLaMiss, in the form of large hail and possibly locally damaging winds. Farther south, although guidance varies regarding the extent of storms within the warm sector later today, a semi-focused corridor for deep convective potential into mid/late afternoon will exist across east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, roughly bounded north/south by the I-20/I-10 corridors. This will be along a modestly deepening/northeastward-developing surface wave and the preceding boundary shifting northward as a warm front. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) with minimal convective inhibition will be prevalent by mid-afternoon along/south of the warm front, with long hodographs (straight atop the boundary layer) and 50+ kt effective shear and 150-225 effective SRH. Where warm-sector storms do develop and mature (higher probability closer to the surface low/warm front), supercells should be expected, with the potential for very large hail along with a tornado risk, potentially including a strong tornado. Influenced by large scale mass response related to the evolving upstream upper trough, warm-sector surface-based storms could become more probable into this evening in vicinity of the advancing surface low and northward-shifting warm front, within a corridor including portions of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. This would include potential for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail via a mixed mode of storms including supercells. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/11/2024 Read more