Severe Storms

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LFK TO 30 ESE SHV TO 15 SW LLQ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125 ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-127-111840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WINN TXC403-405-111840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeastern States... A prominent shortwave trough will deepen as it moves quickly from the ArkLaTex/Sabine Valley Monday morning toward the TN Valley by evening. Height falls will occur over the region as the trough approaches, with an expansive area of 70+ kt 500 mb flow and a 100+ kt front-side speed max. This wave will make it into the VA/NC area by Tuesday morning with an intense upper jet and low tropopause across the Appalachians. At the surface, low pressure will move from the MS/AL border into eastern TN through 00Z, with a secondary low developing from the Piedmont toward the Delmarva late. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of the cold front from MS into AL early in the day, and air mass recovery is expected across GA by late afternoon. Southwesterly 50 kt 850 mb flow will aid theta-e advection, but low-level lapse rates will remain relatively poor. Lapse rates through the column will be sufficient but not steep, with MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg most places. The strongest instability will be early in they day from MS into AL and the FL Panhandle, where up to 1000 J/kg may exist. Storms will be ongoing early Monday from southern MS into AL and perhaps the FL Panhandle, and strong shear may favor a few supercells with damaging wind or tornado risk. Widespread early rain and storms are expected in the warm advection zone and in elevated fashion farther north. With time, a transition to surface based potential is likely across GA and SC, with severe storms possible south of the stalled front which will extend from northern GA into central NC. Although instability will be weak, extreme shear may favor isolated tornadoes or damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 02/11/2024 Read more