Severe Storms

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-107-120340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA TENSAS MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-073- 075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-157- 120340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON MARION NESHOBA NEWTON PIKE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL WARREN WILKINSON Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms will continue overnight from southern Louisiana across central/southern Mississippi into central Alabama. ...01Z Update... ...Lower MS Valley across the Southeast... 00Z surface analysis places a low across east-central LA, with a warm front extending east-northeastward through central AL. Much of the thunderstorm activity continues to be north of this boundary, with large hail as the primary hazard. This general trend is expected to continue throughout the night, with an attendant threat for hail remaining throughout the night as well. Development south of the warm front remains more questionable, but the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Potential exists for increasing warm-sector storm coverage as the surface low and associated cold front move eastward and the low-level flow increase overnight. The overall environment is expected to remain supportive of supercells with any deep warm-sector updrafts, and the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist throughout the night into early Monday morning from southern LA northeast into central AL. ..Mosier.. 02/12/2024 Read more

MD 0134 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 20... FOR PARTS OF LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0134 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Parts of LA into central/southern MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 20... Valid 120005Z - 120130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 20 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail will continue to be the primary threat north of an outflow boundary. Storm development remains possible near/south of the boundary this evening, which would potentially pose a tornado threat in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. New watch issuance is possible prior to the expiration of WW 20. DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary extends from southwest LA into southern MS early this evening. Ongoing convection is largely elevated and focused north of the boundary, but MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear are supporting elevated supercell potential, which will continue to pose a large hail threat through much of the evening. The composite outflow continues to sag slowly southward, especially in areas where convection is in close proximity to the boundary. In the near term, this tendency will limit potential for surface-based convection. However, increasing large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching mid/upper-low over the southern Plains may allow for increasing storm potential near/south of the boundary later this evening. Strengthening low-level flow/shear would support some tornado potential if surface-based convection can be sustained across parts of southern LA/MS. With some severe threat likely to persist through much of the evening, new watch issuance is possible prior to the 01Z expiration of WW 20. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30929317 31439221 32569035 32778987 32848916 32628885 32218881 31848897 31408924 30918978 30739018 30589066 30389131 30169227 30199293 30329356 30929317 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0021 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112238Z - 120045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed this evening across central Alabama. DISCUSSION...Low-level southerly flow has continued to destabilize farther east across Alabama this afternoon. Additional destabilization is expected this evening as temperatures cool aloft ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. In addition, some increase in low-level flow is also forecast this evening which will elongate hodographs in the low-levels. Thunderstorms with some supercell structures have started to mature along and slightly north of the warm front across central Mississippi. These storms will pose a threat for all hazards with the greatest tornado threat associated with storms which can latch onto or remain rooted within the more buoyant airmass south of the warm front. There is uncertainty how likely this is, but if it does occur, tornadoes, some potentially strong, would be possible given the low-level shear in the region. The evolution of these storms across Mississippi as they approach Alabama will be monitored closely and a tornado watch may be needed if they continue to strengthen and especially if they are able to root along or south of the warm front. ..Bentley/Hart.. 02/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 31698841 32318856 32878840 33348668 33348577 32868535 32178544 31698581 31588613 31648728 31708830 31698841 Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MLU TO 55 SW CBM TO 25 NW TCL. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC065-083-112340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RICHLAND MSC103-159-112340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NOXUBEE WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MLU TO 55 SW CBM TO 25 NW TCL. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC065-083-112340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RICHLAND MSC103-159-112340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NOXUBEE WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MLU TO 55 SW CBM TO 25 NW TCL. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC065-083-112340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RICHLAND MSC103-159-112340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NOXUBEE WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MLU TO 55 SW CBM TO 25 NW TCL. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC065-083-112340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RICHLAND MSC103-159-112340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NOXUBEE WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MLU TO 55 SW CBM TO 25 NW TCL. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC065-083-112340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE MADISON RICHLAND MSC103-159-112340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NOXUBEE WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W POE TO 25 NW ESF TO 20 E MLU. ..MOORE..02/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-025-029-037-039-041-059-077-079-097-107-115-125- 112340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN LA SALLE POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-073- 075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-149-157- 112340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR Read more