Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TN/NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily across the coastal Carolinas overnight. ...01Z Update... ...Eastern TN/Northeast GA through the Carolinas... A strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push eastward across eastern TN and western GA, forced by strong ascent attendant to the eastward-moving shortwave currently over the Mid-South. This line is forecast to continue eastward this evening and overnight, moving across Carolinas and offshore by early Tuesday. Buoyancy ahead of the line will remain limited, but a few convectively augmented gusts are still possible across this region this evening and overnight Current surface observation place the 60 deg F dewpoints over southern GA. There is some potential for this better low-level moisture to advect northward into the coastal portions of the Carolinas, augmented by some advection off the Atlantic as well. This could help foster modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line, contributing to a greater chance for deeper updrafts and near-surface-based storms capable of a few damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TN/NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily across the coastal Carolinas overnight. ...01Z Update... ...Eastern TN/Northeast GA through the Carolinas... A strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push eastward across eastern TN and western GA, forced by strong ascent attendant to the eastward-moving shortwave currently over the Mid-South. This line is forecast to continue eastward this evening and overnight, moving across Carolinas and offshore by early Wednesday. Buoyancy ahead of the line will remain limited, but a few convectively augmented gusts are still possible across this region this evening and overnight Current surface observation place the 60 deg F dewpoints over southern GA. There is some potential for this better low-level moisture to advect northward into the coastal portions of the Carolinas, augmented by some advection off the Atlantic as well. This could help foster modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line, contributing to a greater chance for deeper updrafts and near-surface-based storms capable of a few damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A low-amplitude midlevel trough will cross the central/southern Rockies on D3/Wednesday, favoring lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains and dry/breezy conditions over parts of the southern High Plains. However, recent precipitation atop already marginal fuels will limit most fire-weather concerns. Additional lee cyclogenesis is expected in the northern/central High Plains on D4/Thursday in response to strengthening zonal flow, though a minimal wind/RH overlap and unreceptive fuels will mitigate fire-weather potential over the central High Plains. Thereafter, cold post-frontal air will overspread the Plains, followed by the approach of a large-scale western-CONUS trough late in the extended forecast period. While dry/breezy conditions may develop ahead of this system from the Southwest into the Plains on D7-D8/Sunday-Monday, marginal fuels cast uncertainty on the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A low-amplitude midlevel trough will cross the central/southern Rockies on D3/Wednesday, favoring lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains and dry/breezy conditions over parts of the southern High Plains. However, recent precipitation atop already marginal fuels will limit most fire-weather concerns. Additional lee cyclogenesis is expected in the northern/central High Plains on D4/Thursday in response to strengthening zonal flow, though a minimal wind/RH overlap and unreceptive fuels will mitigate fire-weather potential over the central High Plains. Thereafter, cold post-frontal air will overspread the Plains, followed by the approach of a large-scale western-CONUS trough late in the extended forecast period. While dry/breezy conditions may develop ahead of this system from the Southwest into the Plains on D7-D8/Sunday-Monday, marginal fuels cast uncertainty on the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A low-amplitude midlevel trough will cross the central/southern Rockies on D3/Wednesday, favoring lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains and dry/breezy conditions over parts of the southern High Plains. However, recent precipitation atop already marginal fuels will limit most fire-weather concerns. Additional lee cyclogenesis is expected in the northern/central High Plains on D4/Thursday in response to strengthening zonal flow, though a minimal wind/RH overlap and unreceptive fuels will mitigate fire-weather potential over the central High Plains. Thereafter, cold post-frontal air will overspread the Plains, followed by the approach of a large-scale western-CONUS trough late in the extended forecast period. While dry/breezy conditions may develop ahead of this system from the Southwest into the Plains on D7-D8/Sunday-Monday, marginal fuels cast uncertainty on the fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 12 21:56:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 12 21:56:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. The upper trough will continue to move east/northeast toward the Carolinas through tonight, with gradual deepening along with the surface low. The primary mitigating factor to severe potential through tomorrow morning will continue to be limited instability, as shear will be strong with this system. As of 20Z, widespread rain persists from GA into SC, with the more appreciable SBCAPE from far southern GA into northern FL. Meanwhile, weak instability was developing from AL into TN, where rapid cooling aloft will occur later today, along with low-level drying as winds veer. The greatest chance of a few severe storms appears to be from northern FL into southern GA coincident with the plume of instability. More isolated activity cannot be ruled out beneath the vorticity maximum as it moves across Middle and eastern TN as well, though that area is more conditional. In all cases, strong shear could support a supercell or two, with tornado or damaging wind risk. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AAF TO 15 SSE TLH TO 15 NE MGR. ..GRAMS..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC065-121940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON GAC027-121940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS GMZ730-755-121940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM Read more

WW 24 TORNADO FL GA CW 121500Z - 122000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 24 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle Extreme southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of storms with some embedded bowing/rotating structures will pose the threat for isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and a tornado or two for the next few hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Moultrie GA to 25 miles south southeast of Apalachicola FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0139 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 24... FOR EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into far southwest GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 24... Valid 121647Z - 121745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24 continues. SUMMARY...A limited severe threat with low probabilities for a brief tornado/locally strong gusts should persist with a thunderstorm line moving east across the Florida Panhandle and far southwest Georgia. DISCUSSION...A short-line segment is ongoing from extreme southwest GA to the central FL Panhandle coast. The warm-moist sector ahead of this line is quite confined with only about a county-wide band of upper 60s surface dew points. Modified 12Z TLH sounding suggests this richer moisture is necessary for appreciable surface-based instability, and will remain the main mitigating factor to the severe threat. Latest CAM guidance has minimal indications for appreciable strengthening of this line and given the observational trends, additional watch issuance seems unlikely. Surface wind gusts still seem likely to peak in the 45-60 mph range given semi-parallel deep-layer flow to the orientation of the line and peak measured gust during the past hour of 45 mph at KMAI. ..Grams.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 30958470 31128436 30978392 30888364 30728358 30418364 30148383 29908418 29668491 29588521 29618528 30958470 Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW AAF TO 30 WSW TLH TO 25 SW ABY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139. ..GRAMS..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-039-065-073-077-129-121840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GADSDEN JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA GAC007-027-071-087-131-205-275-121840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BROOKS COLQUITT DECATUR GRADY MITCHELL THOMAS GMZ730-752-755-121840- CW Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be located over eastern VA and the DelMarVa area at 12Z Tuesday, with a surface low already offshore. This wave will quickly move east, allowing for cooler westerly winds to overspread the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge will extend from TX toward the northern Gulf coast, maintaining stable conditions there. Farther west, high pressure will also exist over the Rockies, beneath modest westerly flow aloft and with little if any chance of thunderstorms. As such, thunderstorms are unlikely across the CONUS on Tuesday due to generally cool and stable conditions. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2024 Read more