Severe Storms

WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE PAH TO 35 SSW EVV TO 35 S BMG. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC033-035-047-059-107-143-149-157-177-219-221-233-022240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN DAVIESS HOPKINS LYON MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE PAH TO 35 SSW EVV TO 35 S BMG. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC033-035-047-059-107-143-149-157-177-219-221-233-022240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN DAVIESS HOPKINS LYON MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 76 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 021710Z - 022300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 76 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Extreme southeast Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected along a wind shift from extreme southeast Missouri into southeast Illinois early this afternoon, and additional storms will form and move into western Kentucky and southwest Indiana through the afternoon. The environment favors fast-moving supercells capable of producing tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong/EF2), large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Evansville IN to 40 miles south southwest of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24050. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129- 131-133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231- 235-237-022240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BELL BREATHITT CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129- 131-133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231- 235-237-022240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BELL BREATHITT CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129- 131-133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231- 235-237-022240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BELL BREATHITT CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 77 TORNADO KY 021725Z - 030000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 77 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells will be possible this afternoon along a remnant outflow boundary from storms this morning. The environment will become more favorable for tornadoes with time through the afternoon, and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, large hail (1-2 inch diameter) and damaging gusts (60-75 mph) will also be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of London KY to 60 miles east northeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75...WW 76... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25045. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EVV TO 40 S BMG TO 25 E BMG TO 10 S IND. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-013-019-025-029-031-041-043-047-061-071-077-079-081-115- 117-123-137-139-143-145-155-161-175-177-022240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DEARBORN DECATUR FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS JOHNSON OHIO ORANGE PERRY RIPLEY RUSH SCOTT SHELBY SWITZERLAND UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-049- 053-057-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111- 113-117-123-135-137-141-151-155-161-163-167-169-171-179-181-183- 185-187-191-201-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239- 022240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0079 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 79 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 79 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-022240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC003-009-013-017-057-081-095-115-117-139-141-145-022240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LEE MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-051- 055-061-069-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-099-101-103-109-111-113- 117-119-125-127-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177- 181-185-187-189-022240- Read more

MD 0351 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 75...76... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN IL INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN KY...SOUTHERN IN...AND SOUTHWESTERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0351 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far southern IL into western/northern KY...southern IN...and southwestern OH Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...76... Valid 021928Z - 022100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75, 76 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across western Kentucky and southern Indiana should continue to pose some severe risk this afternoon. Downstream watch issuance will eventually be needed. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. A strong tornado may also occur with any supercell that can be sustained. DISCUSSION...Convection has generally struggled to intensify this afternoon in far southern IL/western KY along a pre-frontal trough/wind shift line. Still, the airmass downstream is attempting to destabilize in the wake of earlier convection across parts of northern KY and southern IN. Visible satellite imagery shows some clearing across this area, with surface temperatures gradually warming into the 70s in the vicinity of the Ohio River. The low-level airmass is also slowly moistening as the outflow boundary from morning thunderstorms becomes less well defined, with surface dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s. Enhanced deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt will support supercells with associated hail threat, if any can develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Otherwise, favorable low-level shear, with effective SRH around 250-300 m2/s2, will also foster a tornado risk assuming robust thunderstorms can be sustained. A strong tornado appears possible given the strength of the low-level flow/shear shown in recent VWPs from KLVX. Damaging winds remain a possibility with any small clusters. Given current observational trends and gradual destabilization occurring downstream of the ongoing activity, a downstream Tornado Watch into parts of central KY, southern IN, and southwestern OH will likely be needed before the scheduled 20Z expiration of WW 75. ..Gleason.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38058774 38998711 39328656 39608544 39638422 39128378 38558394 37968431 37498472 36918625 36858829 37358861 38058774 Read more

WW 0076 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 76 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PAH TO 25 W EVV TO 50 S HUF. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 76 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC051-125-129-147-163-173-022140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK KYC033-035-039-047-055-059-083-101-105-107-139-143-149-157-177- 219-221-225-233-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN DAVIESS GRAVES HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LYON MCLEAN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG UNION WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129- 131-133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231- 235-237-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BELL BREATHITT CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-041-043-047-061-071-077-079- 081-093-101-105-115-117-123-137-139-143-145-155-161-175-177- 022140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS JOHNSON LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY RIPLEY RUSH SCOTT SHELBY SWITZERLAND UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-049- 053-057-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111- 113-117-123-135-137-141-151-155-161-163-167-169-171-179-181-183- 185-187-191-201-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239- 022140- KY Read more

WW 0079 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 79 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 79 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-022140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN MSC003-009-013-017-057-081-095-115-117-139-141-145-022140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LEE MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-051- 055-061-069-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-099-101-103-109-111-113- 117-119-125-127-133-135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177- 181-185-187-189-022140- Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A local severe weather outbreak remains possible through this evening primarily across the Mid-Ohio Valley area, with the broader severe weather risk extending east to the upper Ohio Valley, and south to the Gulf Coast. Strong tornadoes remain most likely from southern Indiana to central Ohio and southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Discussion... Previous forecast reasoning largely remains on track, though adjustments to the outlook areas -- including trimming the MDT risk on the eastern fringe -- have been implemented. Multiple rounds of prior convection have hindered warm-sector recovery into the moderate-risk area, but clearing evident in visible imagery from western Kentucky to central Ohio has occurred ahead of the front. This corridor remains the focus for significant severe weather, including potential for strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, earlier reasoning remains valid, with a broad area of severe weather potential still evident from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. ..Goss.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. Read more