Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air flow regime will continue into Thursday and feature a potent mid-level trough moving from the Upper Midwest through New England by early Friday morning. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the western and central states and Gulf Coast. Dry and/or stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development on Thursday over the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air flow regime will continue into Thursday and feature a potent mid-level trough moving from the Upper Midwest through New England by early Friday morning. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the western and central states and Gulf Coast. Dry and/or stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development on Thursday over the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air flow regime will continue into Thursday and feature a potent mid-level trough moving from the Upper Midwest through New England by early Friday morning. Surface high pressure will influence conditions across the western and central states and Gulf Coast. Dry and/or stable conditions will likely preclude thunderstorm development on Thursday over the Lower 48 states. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong surface low will move off the east coast on Tuesday morning. Elsewhere in the CONUS the weather will be benign with light winds and cool temperatures. In addition, fuels remain moist across much of the country. Therefore, no fire weather areas are needed. ..Bentley.. 02/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will encompass the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. Several mid-level perturbations will quickly move east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are forecast Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but 10-percent thunderstorm coverage is not currently expected. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will encompass the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. Several mid-level perturbations will quickly move east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are forecast Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but 10-percent thunderstorm coverage is not currently expected. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will encompass the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. Several mid-level perturbations will quickly move east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are forecast Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but 10-percent thunderstorm coverage is not currently expected. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will encompass the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. Several mid-level perturbations will quickly move east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are forecast Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but 10-percent thunderstorm coverage is not currently expected. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will encompass the Lower 48 states on Wednesday. Several mid-level perturbations will quickly move east across the northern tier of states. A surface low initially over the central Great Plains will develop east to the southwest Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. Scattered showers are forecast Wednesday night across portions of the Mid MS Valley in association with increasing large-scale ascent. A stray lightning flash cannot be ruled out near the MO/IL/IA border Wednesday night but 10-percent thunderstorm coverage is not currently expected. Farther west, showers will move east from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA/Oregon coastal areas as a mid-level trough moves inland Wednesday night. ..Smith.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the central Appalachians is forecast to continue progressing quickly northeastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Tuesday morning. An attendant surface low will take a similar path, before then deepening off the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast during the day. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, with a small portion of southern FL likely still ahead of this front at 12Z Tuesday. However, this front should continue quickly southward/southeastward clearing the south FL coast and FL Keys by 15Z. Warm temperatures aloft should limit the thunderstorm potential across south FL and the Keys ahead of this front. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated east of the Rockies in the wake of this front. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move across the western CONUS on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough forecast to approach the West Coast late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Even so, the lack of appreciable moisture should limit buoyancy, with stable conditions anticipated across the western CONUS throughout the period. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TN/NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE IN TEXT ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily across the coastal Carolinas overnight. ...01Z Update... ...Eastern TN/Northeast GA through the Carolinas... A strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push eastward across eastern TN and western GA, forced by strong ascent attendant to the eastward-moving shortwave currently over the Mid-South. This line is forecast to continue eastward this evening and overnight, moving across Carolinas and offshore by early Tuesday. Buoyancy ahead of the line will remain limited, but a few convectively augmented gusts are still possible across this region this evening and overnight Current surface observation place the 60 deg F dewpoints over southern GA. There is some potential for this better low-level moisture to advect northward into the coastal portions of the Carolinas, augmented by some advection off the Atlantic as well. This could help foster modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line, contributing to a greater chance for deeper updrafts and near-surface-based storms capable of a few damaging gusts and maybe even a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 02/13/2024 Read more