Severe Storms

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HEZ TO 55 NW PIB TO 45 NNE MEI. EITHER REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 21 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 07Z. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-095-105-121-120700- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-023-029-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-113- 121-123-127-129-147-120700- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PIKE Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HEZ TO 55 NW PIB TO 45 NNE MEI. EITHER REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 21 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 07Z. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-095-105-121-120700- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-023-029-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-113- 121-123-127-129-147-120700- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PIKE Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HEZ TO 55 NW PIB TO 45 NNE MEI. EITHER REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 21 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 07Z. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-091-093-095-105-121-120700- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-023-029-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-113- 121-123-127-129-147-120700- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PIKE Read more

MD 0136 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 21... FOR SOUTHEAST LA INTO SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Southeast LA into southern MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 21... Valid 120519Z - 120645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may continue overnight. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing from near the LA coast into southern MS, in advance of a cold front that is approaching from the west. Moderate buoyancy (with MLCAPE of up to 1500 J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear will continue to promote storm organization, with occasional supercell structures potentially persisting into the early overnight hours. Hail will likely continue to be the primary threat, with localized strong/damaging gusts also possible. While surface winds to the south of the composite outflow boundary have recently veered somewhat, low-level shear remains sufficient to support at least a brief tornado threat, given the rich low-level moisture in place (with dewpoints near 70F). There is some potential for the severe threat to persist across at least the southern portion of WW 21 after the 07Z expiration time. Local extension or new watch issuance may need to be considered, depending on trends regarding storm coverage and intensity over the next 60-90 minutes. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31058917 29939047 29639110 29679136 29939162 30359153 31339111 31889022 31978916 31978856 31138911 31058917 Read more

WW 21 TORNADO LA MS 120055Z - 120700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 21 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East Central Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 655 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of central/southern Mississippi and east-central Louisiana for several more hours. Sufficient shear and instability will maintain some risk of supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Natchez MS to 20 miles east of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are forecast on Monday over parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Southeast States into the Carolinas... A shortwave trough is forecast to mature into a closed cyclone as it progresses quickly northeastward from the Arklatex/East TX vicinity through the TN Valley, continuing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Tuesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with 100-110 kt at 500-mb spreading across the Southeast states during the day, eventually reaching the Carolinas late Monday. Robust low-level flow will precede this system as well, particularly during the evening and overnight across the Carolinas as the system matures/deepens and becomes more vertically stacked. Surface pattern associated with this system will be a bit more complex, with widespread precipitation and associated outflow strongly influencing the position of the warm front. General expectation is for a surface low to begin the period near the central MS/AL border vicinity, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across central GA into southern SC. Northward movement of this warm front during the day across the Southeast will likely be limited by widespread precipitation north of the boundary. In fact, there is some potential for this front to shift slowly southward as an outflow-augmented cold front during the morning and early afternoon. This overall evolution may limit the spatial extent of the warm sector during much of the day across the Southeast. Widespread cloud cover will also restrict heating, with the cooler mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates remaining displaced west with the shortwave. As a result, in contrast to the robust kinematic fields, thermodynamic conditions are expected to remain marginal, likely limiting overall storm depth and maturity. A predominately linear mode is anticipated on the eastward moving cold front attendant to the surface low, with the aforementioned thermodynamic conditions likely limiting storm strength along the front as well. Even so, the strong shear could still result in storm capable of producing damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two. Isolated instances of hail are possible as well. A limited threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail will extend northward into the Carolinas Monday evening and overnight as the closed cyclone moves through. However, storm intensity will be limited here as well, with scant buoyancy acting as the limiting factor. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/12/2024 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N LFT TO 25 SE HEZ TO 45 SW CBM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136 ..DEAN..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-063-077-091-093-095-105-121-125-120640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST TANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-023-029-031-035-037-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-085-091- 099-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-120640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE ESF TO 40 ENE HEZ TO 35 S GWO. ..DEAN..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-029-033-037-047-063-077-091-093-095-105-121-125- 120540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTTANGIPAHOA WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-073-075- 077-079-085-089-091-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-157- 120540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE Read more

MD 0135 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 120144Z - 120315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage later tonight, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A strong storm has recently developed just off of the LA coast, which is now moving onshore. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (as noted on the 00Z LCH and LIX soundings) are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This instability in combination with strong effective shear (50+ kt) will support supercell potential through the evening. Storm coverage in the short term may remain isolated, but as a mid/upper-level low and attendant cold front approach from the west, additional storm development will be possible later this evening. Large hail and locally gusty winds will the primary initial threats. Some tornado threat could also evolve with time, especially if any sustained supercell can move into southeast LA, where sufficient low-level shear/SRH will likely persist tonight. Watch issuance remains possible this evening, if a sustained supercell threat appears imminent. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29399297 30539239 30859144 30919093 30729056 30279033 29799044 29429066 29199096 29199139 29229197 29259227 29399297 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-107-120340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA TENSAS MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-063-065-067-069-073- 075-077-079-085-089-091-099-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-157- 120340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MADISON MARION NESHOBA NEWTON PIKE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL WARREN WILKINSON Read more