Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude disturbance initially over OK will quickly move east into increasingly confluent mid-level flow over the Mid South. A larger scale mid-level trough will pivot southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak elongated area of low pressure will develop east from OK to the VA/NC coast during the period as a cold front sweeps southeast across the Arklatex/lower MS Valley. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over the Arklatex into the Mid South mainly during the day and early evening. Scant to weak buoyancy will limit storm vigor and likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude disturbance initially over OK will quickly move east into increasingly confluent mid-level flow over the Mid South. A larger scale mid-level trough will pivot southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak elongated area of low pressure will develop east from OK to the VA/NC coast during the period as a cold front sweeps southeast across the Arklatex/lower MS Valley. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over the Arklatex into the Mid South mainly during the day and early evening. Scant to weak buoyancy will limit storm vigor and likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude disturbance initially over OK will quickly move east into increasingly confluent mid-level flow over the Mid South. A larger scale mid-level trough will pivot southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak elongated area of low pressure will develop east from OK to the VA/NC coast during the period as a cold front sweeps southeast across the Arklatex/lower MS Valley. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over the Arklatex into the Mid South mainly during the day and early evening. Scant to weak buoyancy will limit storm vigor and likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude disturbance initially over OK will quickly move east into increasingly confluent mid-level flow over the Mid South. A larger scale mid-level trough will pivot southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak elongated area of low pressure will develop east from OK to the VA/NC coast during the period as a cold front sweeps southeast across the Arklatex/lower MS Valley. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over the Arklatex into the Mid South mainly during the day and early evening. Scant to weak buoyancy will limit storm vigor and likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude disturbance initially over OK will quickly move east into increasingly confluent mid-level flow over the Mid South. A larger scale mid-level trough will pivot southeast across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak elongated area of low pressure will develop east from OK to the VA/NC coast during the period as a cold front sweeps southeast across the Arklatex/lower MS Valley. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over the Arklatex into the Mid South mainly during the day and early evening. Scant to weak buoyancy will limit storm vigor and likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are very low today. ...Discussion... Active, progressive northern stream will continue across the CONUS today. Several notable short-wave troughs will advance inland across the Pacific Northwest, and over the OH Valley/Great Lakes. While large-scale ascent/midlevel moistening will be noted ahead of each of these features, forecast soundings don't exhibit more than very weak buoyancy. Any convection that develops in response to these short waves will be shallow and the threat for lightning is very low. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are very low today. ...Discussion... Active, progressive northern stream will continue across the CONUS today. Several notable short-wave troughs will advance inland across the Pacific Northwest, and over the OH Valley/Great Lakes. While large-scale ascent/midlevel moistening will be noted ahead of each of these features, forecast soundings don't exhibit more than very weak buoyancy. Any convection that develops in response to these short waves will be shallow and the threat for lightning is very low. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are very low today. ...Discussion... Active, progressive northern stream will continue across the CONUS today. Several notable short-wave troughs will advance inland across the Pacific Northwest, and over the OH Valley/Great Lakes. While large-scale ascent/midlevel moistening will be noted ahead of each of these features, forecast soundings don't exhibit more than very weak buoyancy. Any convection that develops in response to these short waves will be shallow and the threat for lightning is very low. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are very low today. ...Discussion... Active, progressive northern stream will continue across the CONUS today. Several notable short-wave troughs will advance inland across the Pacific Northwest, and over the OH Valley/Great Lakes. While large-scale ascent/midlevel moistening will be noted ahead of each of these features, forecast soundings don't exhibit more than very weak buoyancy. Any convection that develops in response to these short waves will be shallow and the threat for lightning is very low. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are very low today. ...Discussion... Active, progressive northern stream will continue across the CONUS today. Several notable short-wave troughs will advance inland across the Pacific Northwest, and over the OH Valley/Great Lakes. While large-scale ascent/midlevel moistening will be noted ahead of each of these features, forecast soundings don't exhibit more than very weak buoyancy. Any convection that develops in response to these short waves will be shallow and the threat for lightning is very low. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are very low today. ...Discussion... Active, progressive northern stream will continue across the CONUS today. Several notable short-wave troughs will advance inland across the Pacific Northwest, and over the OH Valley/Great Lakes. While large-scale ascent/midlevel moistening will be noted ahead of each of these features, forecast soundings don't exhibit more than very weak buoyancy. Any convection that develops in response to these short waves will be shallow and the threat for lightning is very low. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Most of the CONUS will remain lightning-free tonight but a few areas may experience isolated thunderstorms. One area is over the lower MO/mid-MS Valley region. Notable short-wave trough is approaching this region. Forecast soundings suggest sustained large-scale ascent/moistening should lead to weak elevated instability later tonight. Weak convection may develop in response to this feature and lightning can not be ruled out with a few updrafts. Strong short-wave trough is also advancing toward the northern CA Coast early this evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy and a few thunderstorms may evolve north of the upper jet as it translates inland. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Most of the CONUS will remain lightning-free tonight but a few areas may experience isolated thunderstorms. One area is over the lower MO/mid-MS Valley region. Notable short-wave trough is approaching this region. Forecast soundings suggest sustained large-scale ascent/moistening should lead to weak elevated instability later tonight. Weak convection may develop in response to this feature and lightning can not be ruled out with a few updrafts. Strong short-wave trough is also advancing toward the northern CA Coast early this evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy and a few thunderstorms may evolve north of the upper jet as it translates inland. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Most of the CONUS will remain lightning-free tonight but a few areas may experience isolated thunderstorms. One area is over the lower MO/mid-MS Valley region. Notable short-wave trough is approaching this region. Forecast soundings suggest sustained large-scale ascent/moistening should lead to weak elevated instability later tonight. Weak convection may develop in response to this feature and lightning can not be ruled out with a few updrafts. Strong short-wave trough is also advancing toward the northern CA Coast early this evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy and a few thunderstorms may evolve north of the upper jet as it translates inland. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Most of the CONUS will remain lightning-free tonight but a few areas may experience isolated thunderstorms. One area is over the lower MO/mid-MS Valley region. Notable short-wave trough is approaching this region. Forecast soundings suggest sustained large-scale ascent/moistening should lead to weak elevated instability later tonight. Weak convection may develop in response to this feature and lightning can not be ruled out with a few updrafts. Strong short-wave trough is also advancing toward the northern CA Coast early this evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy and a few thunderstorms may evolve north of the upper jet as it translates inland. ..Darrow.. 02/15/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 14 22:04:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 14 22:04:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z From D3/Friday through D5/Sunday, an expansive post-frontal air mass will encompass much of the central CONUS, with cold surface temperatures generally limiting fire-weather potential. Thereafter, westerly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Rockies, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs encouraging weak lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across the southern/central High Plains. This will especially be the case on D7-D8/Tuesday-Wednesday over the southern High Plains, though confidence in the development of critical conditions is low owing to continued model disagreement and marginal fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more