Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models in the extended range continue to show a progressive flow pattern featuring a series of a shortwave disturbances traversing west to east across the contiguous U.S. The short-wave length and lower amplitude of the underlying large-scale pattern and lack of appreciable moisture in return flow suggest low potential for severe thunderstorm activity through mid week next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Saturday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid to upper-level trough will slowly pivot east across eastern North America on Saturday. The southern portion of mid-level troughing will be reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move from the central Great Plains southeastward into the central Gulf Coast and aid in amplifying cyclonic flow over the eastern Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the eastern Pacific into northern CA during the period. In the low levels, a surface cold front will extend from a cyclone east of the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico. Still modifying maritime air will overspread the southern FL Peninsula ahead of the front where pockets of weak instability are forecast. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible near the front as it moves south over the Peninsula during the period. ..Smith.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ..Bentley.. 02/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more