Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will persist over the CONUS through tonight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from UT/northern AZ to KS/OK by the end of the period. Modest low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the trough/surface cyclone beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, the degree of moistening and forcing for ascent appear insufficient for deep convection/charge separation overnight. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Friday a weak surface low will drift south into the southern High Plains and become less defined. A strong area of high pressure will move into the northern Plains and act to accelerate a cold front south in the southern High Plains. Winds will be light ahead of this cold front and strong behind it with cool temperatures. No significant fire weather concerns are expected given mostly moist fuels in the CONUS and a lack of any overlap between strongest winds and warm/dry surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same. Despite locally dry/breezy conditions over the southern High Plains this afternoon, unreceptive fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 02/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado today. This will lead to some breezy conditions in portions of the central and Southern High Plains. Some locally Elevated meteorological fire weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, fuels are quite moist in the area and therefore the threat for large fires remains minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more