Severe Storms

MD 0364 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 83...84... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Georgia into South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 83...84... Valid 030753Z - 030930Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 83, 84 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms with an attendant risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will continue to shift east across parts of Georgia and South Carolina through early morning. Trends being monitored for possible watch issuance downstream from Tornado Watch 83. DISCUSSION...Stronger surface pressure falls have been noted over GA the past couple of hours. This has allowed for some minor backing of low-level flow ahead of bowing segments from central to eastern GA and several areas of low-level rotation have been noted over the past hour. Area VWPs continue to show impressive low-level and deep shear supporting supercells. Instability remains modest, but sufficient for a continued severe thunderstorm/tornado risk the next few hours. Downstream from Tornado Watch 83 and 84 across portions of southeast GA into the SC Midlands into the Low Country, vertical shear will improve with time. However, it is unclear how much further destabilization will occur with eastward extent. Organized convection will likely persist toward the coast into the morning hours, but low-level inhibition and poor lapse rates my limit a more robust severe risk. Trends will be monitored for possible downstream watch issuance in the next couple of hours. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 33878318 34508196 34778102 34698042 34377998 33678010 32968063 31588202 31438295 31378419 31588484 31768473 32788406 33878318 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should support a severe threat. On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position of the front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red River Valley. On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a severe threat remains uncertain. On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range. Read more

WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CSG TO 30 SSW MCN TO 15 ENE MCN TO 35 WNW AGS TO 40 NNW AGS TO 30 SW CLT. ..LEITMAN..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC023-033-073-081-091-093-107-125-153-163-167-175-181-189-209- 235-245-261-271-279-283-301-303-309-315-319-030940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLECKLEY BURKE COLUMBIA CRISP DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL GLASCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE MONTGOMERY PULASKI RICHMOND SUMTER TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILCOX WILKINSON SCC003-011-023-037-039-047-063-071-079-081-030940- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AIKEN BARNWELL CHESTER EDGEFIELD FAIRFIELD GREENWOOD Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW DHN TO 40 SSE CSG. ..LEITMAN..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-030940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON GAC007-017-037-061-095-099-155-177-201-205-243-273-277-287-321- 030940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BEN HILL CALHOUN CLAY DOUGHERTY EARLY IRWIN LEE MILLER MITCHELL RANDOLPH TERRELL TIFT TURNER WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0363 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030613Z - 030745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over parts of the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia through the overnight hours. Watch issuance is uncertain and area will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to lift northeast into portions of the MCD area through the remainder of the overnight hours. Strong vertical shear is in place across this region with regional VWP data indicating shear suitable for supercells. However, a 06z RAOB from TLH shows substantial capping near 700 mb. Forecast soundings suggest capping may erode sufficiently for surface-based storms late tonight into the early morning hours as large-scale ascent increases. However, weak instability and poor lapse rates may preclude a more robust severe threat. Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31578615 32008485 32008360 31908302 31278289 30758307 29398429 29398536 29978639 30698634 31578615 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low is forecast to move from southern New England into the western Atlantic on Friday, as another upper-level low moves inland across the western U.S. Thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies in divergent flow aloft associated with the exit region of a mid-level jet. Other storms may develop in parts of central and southern California, near a trough where lapse rates will be steep and temperatures aloft will be relatively cold. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Friday or Friday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low is forecast to move from southern New England into the western Atlantic on Friday, as another upper-level low moves inland across the western U.S. Thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies in divergent flow aloft associated with the exit region of a mid-level jet. Other storms may develop in parts of central and southern California, near a trough where lapse rates will be steep and temperatures aloft will be relatively cold. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Friday or Friday night. ..Broyles.. 04/03/2024 Read more