Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm coverage is forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. No changes to the ongoing outlook for today, with minimal thunderstorm activity forecast. The greatest probability of a few weak thunderstorms will be over northern CA this evening as lift and cooling aloft increase with the upper trough. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm coverage is forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. No changes to the ongoing outlook for today, with minimal thunderstorm activity forecast. The greatest probability of a few weak thunderstorms will be over northern CA this evening as lift and cooling aloft increase with the upper trough. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm coverage is forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. No changes to the ongoing outlook for today, with minimal thunderstorm activity forecast. The greatest probability of a few weak thunderstorms will be over northern CA this evening as lift and cooling aloft increase with the upper trough. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday due to high pressure over the plains and western Gulf of Mexico, and only a weak surface trough over the eastern Gulf and southern FL. Low-level moisture over south FL will support minimal instability with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough to the west. However, warm midlevel temperatures will minimize storm strength, despite strong southwest flow aloft. To the west, rapid midlevel moistening will occur along the West Coast and into much of central and northern CA ahead of a slow-moving upper trough over the Pacific Ocean. A cold front is forecast to move ashore over northern/central CA late in the day, however, only gradual cooling aloft will occur at that time, maintaining rather warm and saturated profiles. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday due to high pressure over the plains and western Gulf of Mexico, and only a weak surface trough over the eastern Gulf and southern FL. Low-level moisture over south FL will support minimal instability with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough to the west. However, warm midlevel temperatures will minimize storm strength, despite strong southwest flow aloft. To the west, rapid midlevel moistening will occur along the West Coast and into much of central and northern CA ahead of a slow-moving upper trough over the Pacific Ocean. A cold front is forecast to move ashore over northern/central CA late in the day, however, only gradual cooling aloft will occur at that time, maintaining rather warm and saturated profiles. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday due to high pressure over the plains and western Gulf of Mexico, and only a weak surface trough over the eastern Gulf and southern FL. Low-level moisture over south FL will support minimal instability with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough to the west. However, warm midlevel temperatures will minimize storm strength, despite strong southwest flow aloft. To the west, rapid midlevel moistening will occur along the West Coast and into much of central and northern CA ahead of a slow-moving upper trough over the Pacific Ocean. A cold front is forecast to move ashore over northern/central CA late in the day, however, only gradual cooling aloft will occur at that time, maintaining rather warm and saturated profiles. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday due to high pressure over the plains and western Gulf of Mexico, and only a weak surface trough over the eastern Gulf and southern FL. Low-level moisture over south FL will support minimal instability with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough to the west. However, warm midlevel temperatures will minimize storm strength, despite strong southwest flow aloft. To the west, rapid midlevel moistening will occur along the West Coast and into much of central and northern CA ahead of a slow-moving upper trough over the Pacific Ocean. A cold front is forecast to move ashore over northern/central CA late in the day, however, only gradual cooling aloft will occur at that time, maintaining rather warm and saturated profiles. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday due to high pressure over the plains and western Gulf of Mexico, and only a weak surface trough over the eastern Gulf and southern FL. Low-level moisture over south FL will support minimal instability with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough to the west. However, warm midlevel temperatures will minimize storm strength, despite strong southwest flow aloft. To the west, rapid midlevel moistening will occur along the West Coast and into much of central and northern CA ahead of a slow-moving upper trough over the Pacific Ocean. A cold front is forecast to move ashore over northern/central CA late in the day, however, only gradual cooling aloft will occur at that time, maintaining rather warm and saturated profiles. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday due to high pressure over the plains and western Gulf of Mexico, and only a weak surface trough over the eastern Gulf and southern FL. Low-level moisture over south FL will support minimal instability with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough to the west. However, warm midlevel temperatures will minimize storm strength, despite strong southwest flow aloft. To the west, rapid midlevel moistening will occur along the West Coast and into much of central and northern CA ahead of a slow-moving upper trough over the Pacific Ocean. A cold front is forecast to move ashore over northern/central CA late in the day, however, only gradual cooling aloft will occur at that time, maintaining rather warm and saturated profiles. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday due to high pressure over the plains and western Gulf of Mexico, and only a weak surface trough over the eastern Gulf and southern FL. Low-level moisture over south FL will support minimal instability with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough to the west. However, warm midlevel temperatures will minimize storm strength, despite strong southwest flow aloft. To the west, rapid midlevel moistening will occur along the West Coast and into much of central and northern CA ahead of a slow-moving upper trough over the Pacific Ocean. A cold front is forecast to move ashore over northern/central CA late in the day, however, only gradual cooling aloft will occur at that time, maintaining rather warm and saturated profiles. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast on Sunday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will exist across the CONUS on Sunday due to high pressure over the plains and western Gulf of Mexico, and only a weak surface trough over the eastern Gulf and southern FL. Low-level moisture over south FL will support minimal instability with a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of a low-amplitude upper trough to the west. However, warm midlevel temperatures will minimize storm strength, despite strong southwest flow aloft. To the west, rapid midlevel moistening will occur along the West Coast and into much of central and northern CA ahead of a slow-moving upper trough over the Pacific Ocean. A cold front is forecast to move ashore over northern/central CA late in the day, however, only gradual cooling aloft will occur at that time, maintaining rather warm and saturated profiles. ..Jewell.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Recent fuel analyses suggest the driest conditions remain across portions of southwest TX. However, a recent frontal passage has introduced cooler temperatures that should limit diurnal RH reductions this afternoon. Furthermore, building surface high pressure along the southern High Plains will modulate wind speeds. Recent ensemble guidance supports this general idea with low probability for observing sustained elevated conditions across the region. Elsewhere across the country, breezy and somewhat dry conditions are forecast across the central to northern Plains with sustained winds near 15-20 mph and RH values falling into the 25-35% range. However, fuels appear to be unreceptive with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. through tonight. Cool, relatively dry, and stable conditions will prevail across most of the nation today, with only two small areas seeing a risk of isolated thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over portions of northern CA as a large upper trough approaches the region, steepening lapse rates and providing large scale lift. Other isolated thunderstorms may develop tonight along the southwest coast of the FL peninsula as a cold front sags across the region, but activity should be quite sparse. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/17/2024 Read more