Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat will likely linger longer across central FL as well. Here, sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear supporting organized convection. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail. Low-level flow will likely be veered but there could still be enough curvature for a brief tornado. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat will likely linger longer across central FL as well. Here, sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear supporting organized convection. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail. Low-level flow will likely be veered but there could still be enough curvature for a brief tornado. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat will likely linger longer across central FL as well. Here, sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear supporting organized convection. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail. Low-level flow will likely be veered but there could still be enough curvature for a brief tornado. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat will likely linger longer across central FL as well. Here, sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear supporting organized convection. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail. Low-level flow will likely be veered but there could still be enough curvature for a brief tornado. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat will likely linger longer across central FL as well. Here, sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear supporting organized convection. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail. Low-level flow will likely be veered but there could still be enough curvature for a brief tornado. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat will likely linger longer across central FL as well. Here, sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear supporting organized convection. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail. Low-level flow will likely be veered but there could still be enough curvature for a brief tornado. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat will likely linger longer across central FL as well. Here, sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear supporting organized convection. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail. Low-level flow will likely be veered but there could still be enough curvature for a brief tornado. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat will likely linger longer across central FL as well. Here, sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear supporting organized convection. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail. Low-level flow will likely be veered but there could still be enough curvature for a brief tornado. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well. The severe threat will likely linger longer across central FL as well. Here, sufficient instability expected ahead of the front should maintain widespread storms, with shear supporting organized convection. Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary risk, along with some potential for marginal hail. Low-level flow will likely be veered but there could still be enough curvature for a brief tornado. ...Southwest OR into Central ID... Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough to support updraft organization and potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for strong outflow. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 04/03/2024 Read more